Week 4 Recap
Emotion is a tricky thing as it can be a huge asset or a huge detriment. When you are dealing with your family and friends showing and giving into emotions is not only appropriate but a great way to build intimacy in your relationships with loved ones and that is clearly the positive side of emotion.
That all said, the place you do not want emotion to come into play is in business or decision-making. When making decisions, especially those with more dire/complex consequences, you will find that your ability to make optimal decisions will only be improved by your minimization of the emotional aspect of the math you are doing.
Why am I saying all this? I am ANNOYED and FRUSTRATED at my own performance this NFL season, but it is helpful to remind myself that we are only 25% the way into the regular season and we have a full set of playoff games after that.
While the results this season (as you can see above) are far from disastrous, I am so annoyed and frustrated that they are not better. At this point last year we were at 12u profit at this point1 and the problem has been the exotic picks.
To date, the model has been 23-16-3 for 6u profit and so you see my additional add-on picks have been deeply unprofitable. This week was once again one where we were so close to a big week so I feel the tide turning, the trick is just not letting emotion seep into the decisions we are making.
Thursday Night Football
Colts @ Broncos (Thursday 8:15 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
The Broncos are without Javonte Williams and Randy Gregory
The Colts are without Shaq Leonard and JT
Per ActionNetwork, Matt Ryan is 26-41-1 ATS (38.8%) over the last five seasons.
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Okay, I am not ready to throw the towel in on my Colts to win the AFC South ticket just yet, but they do NOT look good. They are supposed to be a run-first team built on a dominant OL, but their OL looks terrible and it doesn’t seem to be improving at all and their Gus Bradley scheme doesn’t seem to take the ball away. This week they face a Broncos team that gave up over 200 yards on the ground to the Raiders. Look, I have been out on the Broncos since before the season started and I have been clear I think Russel Wilson is effectively done being an elite QB in this league and the Broncos’ schedule is about to get much tougher so this game is key for them to try and grab a W.
Verdict -
I am going to Pass on the game for a straight bet as I really think both these teams have a ton of issues and I really do not trust either of them
0.25u on Michael Pittman Jr. any time TD +170
0.55u 6pt teaser -110 on Colts +9.5 / Cardinals +11
I hope you will come to hang out with us on the Gamblers Paradise Discord!!!
Worth pointing out that I was up 24u through Week 3 and then dropped over 12u in Week 4 so at least that didn’t happen last week!