TNF / NFL Bets / NBA Plays 11/18
TNF Football!
Patriots @ Falcons (TNF) - I grabbed this early and here is why, I think the Falcons are going to have problems in this game and I think this is a bad match-up for them, but I expected the line to move and move quickly.
The look ahead line was -4, then got reposted at -5 and quickly went to -5.5, I grabbed Pats -6 Monday and by Tuesday 5pm it was -7.5, it looks like it has settled around 7/7.5 depending on the site and I think having the CLV will serve us well. I think there is a fair bit of over reaction to the stomping the Cowboys put on the Falcons and the ass kicking the Pats gave the Browns and I knew I would not want to touch this once it hit 7 as I think that key number is going to come in big here. A fun stat - TNF dogs are 6-4 ATS on Thursday night this season, BUT the avg margin of victory is 6.9 so if history holds then we might be exactly where we need to be.
Parlays and Teasers: I am continuing to tone it down this week.
1u 7pt Tease @ +120 NE pk / DAL +9.5 / Washington +10.5
0.5u 6pt Tease @ +150 NE -1 / NO +7.5 / Min +8.5
0.25u Long Shot Parlay @ 2546 - NE -310 / DAL +120 / CIN -120 / NO +105 / MIN +105 / TB -556
DFS - Going to bring back the Thur - Mon daily fantasy lineup.
QB - Dak 7,200 (I also like Burrow)
RB - James Conner 6,100 / AJ Dillon 6,200 (I also like Mixon)
WR- Godwin 6,700 / Cooks 6,000 / E. Moore 4,900 (I also like Corey Davis)
TE- Uzomah 6,300
Flex- Kittle 6,300
DST - Browns 3,100
NBA Action1
Recap - The NBA v1.0 model has been RED hot. In the last 7 days, the model has returned a profit of 10.4u and the best part it has been profitable across all wagering amounts!
Strategy - I am still only playing 1u and above plays on v1.0 as I like to limit my action a little bit, especially as I start to devote capital to NFL/ College / MMA / Horses / etc.
Other Notes - V2.0 Totals predictions seem to be turning it around with a 2.5u profit yesterday. Glad to see the perform a bit better but I am going to still hold off for around another week to see if that continues, though on days with limited v1.0 plays (like today) I am tempted to dip my toe in.
Have a great day in all your action!
Plays Table v1.0:
Plays Table v2.0:
I know some folks have asked me to stop including the NBA stuff that is behind the pay wall and on days where NBA is the only send I will only send that to subscribers, but on days where I can effectively limit number of emails by including it all in one post, I am going to do it.