Happy Father’s Day and US Open Sunday!!
Today is the final round of the US Open and we are sitting quite pretty.
In the last 24 playing of the US Open, you had to be within 4 strokes of the lead to win so that leaves us with Rickie, Clark, Rory, and Scottie as having realistic chances to win…..and good news!!! We have 3 of them!!!
What we have from pre-tournament:
2u on Scottie Scheffler +750 - would return 17 units
1u on Rory McIlroy +1400 - would return 15 units
0.25u on Rickie Fowler +6000 - would return 15.25 units
Given, that Wyndham Clark is +330, we have the ability to hedge should we want to. Now, what does that look like?
If I were to hedge, I would bet 1 full until on Clark - That would protect my initial investment (and leave me with a 0.05u profit) should he win.
If you were more conservative you could bet Clark for 3 units and then you have more or less hedged away all the risk.
Hedging is a completely personal decision so you honestly should feel comfortable doing whatever you think is best and most appropriate for your risk tolerance.
What am I going to do?
I am going to let it ride and here is why:
I do not view this as risking 15-17 units but rather risking the 3.25u that I initially invested
If you note above, I focused ONLY on the top 4 golfers, but they are not the only ones out there playing so this is not a perfect hedge as you could lose your bets and hedge should someone like English or Xander pull off a Johnny Miller
I am biased, I really like Rory, Rickie, and Scottie and honestly really would be thrilled if any of the 3 of them wins
While Wyndham Clark won the Wells Fargo and has looked fantastic so far, especially yesterday, I think sleeping on a lead in the major and sitting around and waiting all day to go out there is going to be quite overwhelming for him
Hope this helps!