Recap - RBC Canadian Open
What a freaking finish it was to that tournament. I would have to imagine everyone loved how that ended, except for maybe Adam Hadwin (LOL).
Look, we had a super small loss of 1.5u and I told you last week that I was not thrilled with how things were looking when I was breaking things down and then we started having guys drop out.
That all said, we almost had the same magic as we did for the Memorial with Hatton going low on Sunday, posting a score, and letting the other guys fall over themselves and letting us in the back door, but sadly it was not meant to be.
Last week was - aim small, miss small. This week is going to be - aim big, so let’s win big!
123rd US Open
I know people are split on the US Open, but I am someone who really enjoys this tournament and the challenge that it provides these golfers, but good golly this rough looks DEEEEEP. There is also something great about watching the final round on Father’s Day.
This year the American National Championship will be played at Los Angeles Country Club for the first time. LACC has two 18-hole courses on its property, but the US Open will be played on the North Course (which was recently listed as the 16th-best course in the country) which plays to a Par 70 across ~7,400 yards (here is the yardage book). Make sure to check out the phenomenal course overview the Fried Egg put out last week.
Two things that we should keep in mind as we build our card:
Do not underestimate the physical and mental challenge it will be to get around this course; from what I have been told, this course is about as tough as Augusta National and Rivieria to get around physically due to its rolling hills.
The US Open’s cut is top 60 and ties so there will be a fair number of guys who do not see the weekend, but if you can get a guy to the weekend you have a very good shot at T40 and T20 bets.
This club was established in 1897 and has been active since 1911. This is the first time that it has held a PGA Tour event since 1940 when it hosted its 4th LA Open. That said, there are a few players who do have some experience here as the LACC course record is held by Max Homa when he shot a 611 and both Scheffler and Morikawa took part in the 2017 Walker Cup.
The 2022 US Open was won by Matt Fitzpatrick (who we had at 50-1), who captured his first major title when he shot -6 at The Country Club in Brookline, where he topped Scottie Scheffler and Willy Z by 1 stroke. The 2021 edition saw Jon Rahm (-6) capture his first major title at 10-1 odds when he topped Louis Oosthuizen by 1 stroke at Torrey Pines, and 2020 saw Bryson DeChambeau (-6) use his prodigious length to win, at 25-1 odds, when he was the only man under-par at Winged Foot, LIV Free Agent Matthew Wolff came in 2nd at even par.
The event’s 72-hole-to-par record is -16 shot by Brooks Koepka in his 4-shot victory in 2017 at Erin Hills and by Rory McIlroy in his 8-stroke victory in 2011 at Congressional. The scoring record of 268 was scored by Rory in that 2011 victory. Tiger Woods holds the record for the largest margin of victory when he won by 15 strokes2 in 2000 at Pebble Beach.
Fitzpatrick will attempt to become the first back-to-back winner since 2018 when Brooks Koepka won his second in a row at Shinnecock Hills. Four men have won the US Open 4 times, Willie Anderson, Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan, and Jack Nicklaus.
Brooks Koepka will look to be the first person to hold two major titles at once since…….he did it in 2018 when he won the US Open and the PGA Championship. Per Justin Ray, Brooks can also become only the 3rd player ever to win 3 or more US Opens and PGA Championships, the other two are Jack and Tiger.
We have a golf major and we are taking a major amount of risk (15 units) so please make sure you are only betting what you are comfortable with and not over doing it. Also worth noting, that by construction, if we do not hit an outright we will likely not have a profit this week, but if we hit one we, could see a massive profit.
Okay, let’s get to it:
Outright3:
2u on Scottie Scheffler +750
1u on Rory McIlroy +1400
1u on Patrick Canltay4
0.5u on Patrick Cantlay +1800 (From June 3)
As I said in footnote 4, I have another 0.75u of risk on Cantlay from parlays so that will be it for me. If you do not have those, add another 0.5u at +1800 and so I will track 1u of risk on Cantlay
0.75u on Tony Finau +3000
0.5u on Tony Finau +2500 (From May 15)
I am adding 0.25u on Finau +4000
If you did not get the May bet, consider yourself lucky, you are able to replicate the full position now with 0.5625u on Finau +4000
0.5u on Tyrrell Hatton +3500
0.25u on Bryson DeChambeau +4500
0.25u on Rickie Fowler +6000
0.25u on Si Woo Kim +10000
T10:
0.5u on Scottie Scheffler -135
0.25u on Rickie Fowler +325
0.25u on Bryson DeChambeau +450
T20:
1.3u on Patrick Cantlay -130
0.5u on Tyrrell Hatton +130
0.5u on Rickie Fowler +175
0.25u on Jason Day +160
0.25u on Bryson DeChambeau +200
0.25u on Si Woo Kim +250
0.25u on Mito Pereira +250
0.25u on Adam Scott +275
T40:
0.5u on Rick Fowler -110
0.5u on Si Woo Kim +105
0.25u on Sahith Theegala +105
0.25u on Gary Woodland +125
Matchups - these have struggled so de-risking here:
0.69u on Alex Noren over Pablo Larrazabal -138
0.67u on Chris Kirk over Tom Hoge -134
0.35u on Gary Woodland over Harris English -140
0.3125u on Adrian Meronk over Justin Suh -125
0.3125u on Hideki Matsuyama over Cam Young -125
0.3075u on Cameron Davis over Sergio Garcia -123
0.3075u on Mito Pereira over Denny McCarthy -123
I am betting with the knowledge I could lose it all and I am okay with that. I also do not consider anything less that a 5u win or anything more than a 5u loss to be notable. As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Gamblers Paradise Discord
I know I talk about joining the Gamblers Paradise discord every week, but if you were on there you would have had fun watching the Belmont Stakes and UFC PPV with us last week, getting picks from others on MLB and UFC, and hanging out with a great group!
So yes, you really need to hit this button to come to join us
Daily Fantasy
For those unfamiliar with Daily Fantasy, this is a game you can play (I use Draft Kings) where they give you a budget and use allocate that budget to golfers and use their scoring criteria to try and win money. The dollar values you see below are the “salaries” for each golfer I select. You can mirror what I do, do your own thing, or do some combo and as always I am just showing what I am doing, and is good for me.
Okay, let’s get back to it with two separate line-ups!
Lineup 1:
Cantlay 10,300
Hatton 8,900
Matsuyama 8,600
Bryson 7,600
Si Woo 7,300
Keith Mitchell 7,300
Lineup 2:
Hovland 10,000
Rory 9,900
Bryson 7,600
Fowler 7,500
Adam Scott 7,500
Si Woo 7,300
Good luck with all your action!
Patrick Cantlay has a round of 62 on this course (wink emoji)
This is also the largest margin of victory in any major
I always like to cover off on the guys I am targeting for parlays already I have locked in two Cantlay parlays +2310 (0.5u) and +3219 (0.125u). That’s probably enough for me for him. Got some Homa (0.125u at +6095) and Rory (0.125u at +3345) as well. Given the rest of my card, I am going to look for long shots to add to Brooks, Hovland, and Scottie.
Available on Bovada