Week 9 NFL Picks
Happy Friday!
Yesterday I posted free NBA plays and I got some messages that it was only profitable because of the 3u play that you didn’t get. Sorry, but exclusive 3u plays was always part of the paid subscriber deal. If you are interested you can sign up here and you get a month for a low price - today’s action was just posted - sign up for monthly subscription to check it out!
Additionally, I want to make sure you all are getting content at the best and most useful times. I have always sent these on Friday’s so that folks have something to enjoy at the end of their work week, they can get action in early, and this note isn’t lost in the shuffle on Sunday mornings. I know some might prefer to get this note on Sunday mornings so I opened a poll on Twitter, below, it will run for a couple days. PLEASE VOTE!! I am more than happy to live by whatever the results are.
Let’s crush this week and cash some tickets!!
#TitanicModel output:
3u Plays:
Cinci -2.5 (-118) - released Tuesday
New Orleans -6 (-110)
2u Plays:
Arizona +1.5 (+105) ← Assume Kyler plays. If you want to wait to see then that is totally cool and what I am going to do. That said, Peter Shrager of NFL Network seemed to indicate that he is going to play and he is really plugged into that team.
1u Plays:
Houston +6 (-115)
Las Vegas -3 (-120)
Green Bay +7.5 (-120)
0.5u Plays:
New England -3.5 (-115)
Buffalo -14.5 (-110)
Eagles +2 (-110)
Game by Game analysis:
Browns @ Bengals - Last week on his podcast Mike Lombardi asked the question “How will Taylor get his team prepared to deal with their success?” and he was right to lob that warning out there. I think they were embarrassed and take care of business here. I LOVE that this number is under 3 and I grabbed it as soon as it happened so Bengals -2.5. Part of this bet for me is also the Browns. They are a complete mess. OBJ looks a shadow of himself, his dad is apparently a digital video master (count me dubious) and by the time you read this he might be on the street. Baker looks REALLY hurt and I do not think he was great to begin with. I think Bengals bounce back.
Broncos @ Cowboys - I am glad I ultimately stayed away, but let’s here it for that cowboys D! Held the Vikings to 1 for 13 on 3rd downs. They get Dak back and the team should continue to roll. Broncos on the other hand seem to be in free fall and trading Von Miller (even though he is far from his best) is significant. You would think I would take Cowboys here (and I will bet them personally at -9.5 - currently -120 at BetOnline), but I am going to PASS for 2 reasons 1) Cowboys are 7-0 vs the spread. That is not going to last forever and 2) the Broncos have the type of pass catchers (WRs / TEs) that could give the Cowboys D some issues I am just not sure if Teddy can consistently get them the ball and though Fant is out with Rona. Cowboys win this, but it could be closer than most, including me, expect.
Texans @ Dolphins - I know my model says to place a half unit on this game, but that is really because of home field advantage. Per my model’s power rankings this is a battle of the 30th and 29th best teams in the NFL. HARD PASS for me on watching or betting this game.
Falcons @ Saints - I harp on coaching a lot and talking frequently about how bad some of the coaches in the NFL are so let me be clear Sean Payton and his coaching staff are among the best in the NFL. The way they are able to prepare the team each week is remarkable. My model above obviously LOVES the Saints this week and I am going to bet along with it you should note that most it always takes a couple weeks for my model to fully ingest a QB’s injury so for that reason I am going to go take New Orleans -6 but not for 3u, could me in 1 for as I do not think the difference between Winston and Siemian is THAT big given the offense they have been running and I think that Dennis Allen will have a game plan that will really bother this unimpressive Falcons team. The Falcons looked dreadful against that flawed Panthers team last week and I do not see it getting much better for them here.
Raiders @ Giants - I was all prepared to take the Raiders -3 here, but then the Ruggs news broke — Please DO NOT drive intoxicated — and I am not sure how this team will respond and how much is too much for a team to handle. I know Warren Sharp likes to point out when teams have a rest advantage and the Raiders have a huge one here coming off a bye with Giants playing MNF. I just don’t think the Giants are any good. I was going to take LV money line earlier this week when this was -130 to -140 range, but this is now -175 so I PASS.
Pats @ Panthers - The Lombardi derby1!!! I was high on Sam Darnold coming out of college (in that class I LOVED Lamar and Darnold was my 2nd fav), but I think he might have been shell shocked from his time with the Jets. When he gets hit, especially early in the game, his eye level drops. I love the Panthers last week because I didn’t think the Falcons could effect him in the pocket. The Pats are a WHOLE different story and let’s not forget the famous “I was seeing ghosts out there” quote and if Darnold isnt able to get out of concussion protocol the I REALLY dislike PJ Walker. Pats -3.5 and I am also going to look at the under here (I know model says 0.5u but I am playing this for a full unit and will grade the Game by Game analysis play as such).
Bills @ Jags - The Jaguars are bad. Really really really bad. They are talent poor and poorly coached. My model has them as the 2nd worst team in the entire NFL. On the flip side, the Bills, especially their D defense, are fantastic. There are only 2 things stopping me here. 1) I hate giving up more than 2 TD’s, especially now that it is over 14 and these kickers keep missing kicks each week. 2) The Bills covered last week against a crappy Dolphins team, but did so very late and kept the Phins around close most of that game. I think this one is a PASS for me, but if that number hits 13.5, count me in.
Vikings @ Ravens - I am not sure if you have seen the quotes2 coming out of Minnesota after they lost on Sunday night, but they show this team is horribly coached. Pair that with Cousins numbers that plummet when pressured and you have a bad match up for them. Here is my concern, the Ravens are one of the worst tackling teams in the league and EVERYONE is shitting on the Vikings so maybe we should zag. The Ravens are coming off the bye and should present real problems for the Vikings. I like Ravens -6 (1u @ -110).
Chargers @ Eagles - My model has this as the only game this week where the team that is better is the underdog and I guess folks agreed as this game opened Eagles +3 and has been bet down from there. I honestly don’t like how either of these teams are coached and I am not sure how the Eagles defense will deal with the Chargers offensive attack, especially on the outside. The Eagles have beaten some really crappy teams. When in doubt I tend to lean towards the better QB and that is definitely Herbert, but I am going to PASS because the Eagles finally looked to run the ball last week and their OL and DL liked good last week and the Chargers can’t stop the run AT ALL. The play for me personally is going to be on the Over.
Packers @ Chiefs - What in the world has happened to the Chiefs and Mahomes. Good golly, he was somehow the second best QB in the MNF game and the other one was Daniel Freaking Jones. Green Bay was starting to get me to believe in them and as a Cowboys fan I should know what sort of magic Rodgers can pull off in a big spot, but now they are staring at not having him for at least 1 game and possibly 2. I am going to PASS, but it feels like Packers +7.5 is a bit of an over reaction given how poorly KC has been playing.
Cards @ 49ers - I LOVED Cards last Thursday night and it was clearly not the right call…..I LOVE them here too. I am not a 49ers believer and frankly I do not care if it is Jimmy G or Lance out there. Three things that worry me here are 1) Kyler3 is starting to get banged up, and that is going to start to eat into his production which will eventually drop off a cliff, 2) speaking of Kliffs4, I do not trust their coach. He is baffling with his decision making 3) Debo running amok vs the Cards secondary. Ultimately I am going to trust eyes and take Cards +1.5 ONLY IF KYLER PLAYS but this might be the start of the end for them.
Titans @ Rams (SNF) - The Titans defensive back field is a mess and has been for years. The Rams are going to chuck the ball all over the place on them. I do not think the Titans can keep up, though I think folks are underrating their ability to throw the ball around. I thought this was a point too high when it was over 7, but now that it has dropped I am going to LAR -7 (1u for -115) as I would not be surprised if this was 21-3 at half and I will be using the Rams in teasers / parlays.
Parlays and Teasers:
I am toning it down this week. I got a bit out there recently and feel like I was forcing it a bit so I am going to scale back a little bit this week.
1u parlay @ +101 - NE -190 / DAL -481 / BUF -1100
1u 7pt tease @ +120 - LAR pk / NO +1 / Phi +9
0.5u parlay @ 198 - LAR -350 / NO -260 / BAL -260 / DAL -481
0.5u parlay @ 261 - NE -190 / Cin -135 / Pit -280
0.25u 7pt tease @ +325 - Dal -3 / NE +3.5 / LAR pk / Pit +0.5 / NO +1
0.25u Long shot parlay @ +1686 - LAR -350 / PIT -280 / NO -260 / Cin -2.5 (-110) / NE -3 (bought 0.5 so -140) / Hou +6 (-115) / DAL -481
EDIT NOTE: The long shot parlay odds on the original post were incorrect and have been updated to +1686. The plays remain the exact same.
Best of luck in all your action!
In soccer a derby (pronounced darby) is when two teams with a connection (generally because they are from the same city) play one another. I am referencing that Mike Lombardi has two sons and they will be on opposing coaching staffs for this game.
If you have Kyler in Fantasy, I would look to trade him right now. I think this is the top of his market
sorry for this pun, but I couldn’t help myself