Recaps
Fortient
As I stated in the Cazoo Open de France post - Let’s start with the Fortinet which was more or less a disaster after Thursday. Thursday was pretty cool when Lucas Herbert was leading and we had him, but that was pretty much the end of that. All in all, we lost 2.85u BUTTTTT, if you are a member of the Gamblers Paradise Discord you may have hit the Degen Parlay this week! That returned over 9u for a 0.25u bet!
Ryder Cup
We also had a nice little 0.5u bet on the Euros to win the Ryder Cup at +175 so that is always nice to get into our pocket!
I got a couple of messages from folks who missed out on the Ryder Cup bet and all I can say is “READ THE NEWSLETTERS”. Yes, I know that makes me sound like a dick, but I mentioned it a number of times in posts in the 2+ months since I placed it. I can only post my picks, but I can’t force you to be able to read, that responsibility is yours.
Anyway, that takes our season total close to 46u of profit on the PGA Tour. I got asked a bunch about matchups during the tournament and those were all on Discord. We went 8-6-1 for +0.92u. Those are all unofficial and do NOT get factored into the above, but if you want to share in some of that action make sure you join up!
88th Masters Future
Currently, we have the following futures open:
0.25u on Will Zalatoris +4000 (From July 3rd)
0.5u on Cam Young +3300 (From July 24th)
I am going to ADD another 0.25u on Will Zalatoris here at +5000! For record-keeping purposes, I am going to blend these and call him 0.5u at +4500.
Sanderson Farms Championship
The PGA tour starts its fall calendar with a trip to Jackson, Mississippi to visit the Country Club of Jackson. While CCJ boasts 3 nine-hole courses, they leverage Donald Ross-designed1 and John Fought-redesigned2 Dogwood and Azalea courses to combine for championship tournaments which play to a par 72 over a distance of ~7,450 yards (hole-by-hole video here). The winners of this tournament tend to be those who shoot in the high teens to low 20s so do not be surprised if guys go rather low this week.
The 2022 Sanderson saw Canadian Mackenzie Hughes (103-1 odds) pick up his 2nd PGA Tour victory by winning his 2nd tournament through playoff when he topped Sepp Straka (50-1), who also shot -17. The 2021 edition saw tournament favorite Sam Burns (16-1 odds) shoot -22 to capture his 2nd PGA Tour title when he topped Cam Young (300-1) and Nick Watney (300-1) by 1 stroke, and 2020 saw Sergio Garcia (-19) win as a 70-1 shot when he topped Peter Malnati (200-1) by 1 stroke.
Scott Stallings’s victorious score of -24 in 2012 is the lowest to par in this tournament’s history, while the aggregate record of 263 was achieved in 1986 by Dan Halldorson. Mackenzie will attempt to be the 4th person3 to win this tournament twice and just the 2nd person4 to win back-to-back years.
Last year, we had a slightly positive week in Jackson with a 1.6u of profit which translated to 18.8% ROI.
As will be our expectation for the fall calendar, this field lacks high-level names as we only have 1 player in the top 50 of OWGR, so we are going to be a bit careful here, especially given how many long shots have won this thing (credit to Ron Klos) and look to use most of our capital on our Alfred Dunhill Links picks so I am going with 4.8u of risk:
Outright5:
0.6u Beau Hossler +3000
0.5u Lucas Herbert +3500
0.35u Garrick Higgo +5000
0.35u Davis Thompson +5000
0.28u Kevin Yu +6500
T10 (0.25u on each):
Stephan Jaeger +200
Beau Hossler +300
Garrick Higgo +400
T20
0.5u Baeu Hossler +135
0.5u Lucas Herbert +160
0.25u Davis Thompson +185
0.25u Garrick Higgo +200
0.25u Sam Stevens +200
0.25u Kevin Yu +250
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Daily Fantasy
I am taking a pass today.
Good luck with all your action!
Meaning parkland style with tricky greens that are on the smaller side
The redesign took place in 2008-2009
Dwight Nevil, Brain Henniger, and Fred Funk have each won the tournament twice.
Dwight Nevil won in 1973 and 1974
My model shows value on Stephan Jaeger at his current number but I would have to lay 1u on him to make it worthwhile so I am passing on him here, but will look to get a degen parlay on him. Note the model also sees value in Sam Stevens at 50-1 but I really can’t bet on him outright again and watch him miss the cut.