Recap - Rocket Mortgage Classic
Boy oh Boy did that get sweaty but ultimately Rickie Fowler gets it done for us and becomes the 7th outright winner1 we have had this PGA Tour season:
Shriners Children’s Open - Tom Kim 25-1
CJ Cup - Rory McIlroy 7-1
World Wide Technology Championship - Russell Henley 50-1
Cadence Bank Houston Open - Tony Finau 20-1
AT&T Byron Nelson - Jason Day 20-1
the Memorial - Viktor Hovland 22-1
Rocket Mortgage Classic - Rickie Fowler 14-1
That was one of the most heart-stopping finishes we have had to endure, but Rickie came up in the clutch exactly when we needed him to and he gets us JUST into positive territory for the month of June!
Other than Rickie winning, honestly not a ton to have loved about this tournament from a performance perspective as it was pretty blah and we gave back 2.2u with the Sunday morning hedge.
I did get a couple of messages about the hedge and honestly, it is really a gut-feeling thing. I was worried Rickie would get tight late (he did), someone would go very low to push him (Morikawa did), and I wanted some downside protection (which ultimately made the playoff a little more tolerable).
John Deere Classic
The PGA Tour stays in the midwest as the players head to Illinois’s TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. This course plays to about 7,290 yards and is a Par 71, with 3 par-5’s, 4 par-3’s and 11 par-4’s. Expect to see a winning score right around the -20 mark.
The 2022 classic saw JT Poston (40-1 odds) capture his 2nd PGA tour title when he shot 9-under in the first round and carded a -21 to beat Christiaan Bezuidenhout (30-1) and Emiliano Grillo (60-1) by 3 strokes. The 2021 edition saw Lucas Glover (50-1 odds) shoot -19 to top Ryan Moore (50-1) and Kevin Na (40-1) by 2 strokes, and 20192 saw Dylan Fritelli (-21) win as a 90-1 shot when he topped Russell Henley by 2 strokes.
The event’s 72-hole-to-par record is -27 (257) shot by Michael Kim in 2018 when he won at 300-1 by an astounding 8 strokes. JT Poston will be looking to join Steve Stricker, Deane Beman, and David Frost as individuals who have won this tournament in back-to-back years. The course record of 59 was shot by Paul Goydos in the opening round of the 2010 tournament.
Obviously, this field is not very good, but it does have 5 former winners in the field3, and as Ron Klos points out, the average odds for the winner of this tournament in the last 12 playings is 64-1 and 81-1 in the previous 9 years and the average score for the winner is -21.
Last year, we had a 3.6u profit at the John Deere Classic for a 53.5% ROI. I am taking some shots but going to be strategic with only 7u of risk4:
Outright5:
0.75u on Russell Henley 16-1
0.25u on Alex Smalley 40-1
0.25u on Ryan Palmer 60-1
0.25u on Sam Stevens 70-1
T10 (0.25u each)
Russell Henley +220
Eric Cole +400
Adam Schenk +400
T20:
0.7u on Russell Henley -140
0.5u on Alex Smalley +130
0.5u on Ryan Palmer +170
0.25u on Sam Stevens +200
0.25u on Mark Hubbard +200
0.25u on Patton Kizzire +240
0.25u on Callum Tarren +240
Matchups
0.625u on Emilano Grillo over Chris Kirk -125
0.6u on Chez Reavie over Taylor Montgomery -120
0.3375u on David Lipsky over Peter Kuest -135
0.275u on Kevin Streelman over Sam Ryder -110
0.25u on Tyler Duncan over Justin Lower +100
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Gamblers Paradise Discord
I know I talk about joining the Gamblers Paradise discord every week, but if you want to be there with us watching the Belmont Stakes this week, getting picks from others on MLB and UFC, and hanging out with a great group!
Oh yes, you really need to hit this button to come to join us so you do NOT miss me when I call outright winners a month before they happen:
Open and New Futures
We are coming up on The Open, so wanted to give another quick reminder on what we have open and I am going to open a new Masters future.
The Open:
0.5u on Viktor Hovland +2800 (From April 10)
The 2024 Masters
0.25u on Will Zalatoris +4000 - NEW
I love Willy Z and when I saw that his odds are at this point it is a must-bet for me. Yes, I know this is a huge risk as we have not seen him play for a few months, but if he comes back and he shows any form this is going to be in the 20-28 range very quickly
NBA - Make sure you do not miss the NBA Future I sent out last week.
Daily Fantasy
For those unfamiliar with Daily Fantasy, this is a game you can play (I use Draft Kings) where they give you a budget and use allocate that budget to golfers and use their scoring criteria to try and win money. The dollar values below are the “salaries” for each golfer I select. You can mirror what I do, do your own thing, or do some combo and as always I am just showing what I am doing, and is good for me.
I am going to take a pass this week again.
Good luck with all your action!
This doesn’t include Scottie Scheffler (whom I gave as a 14-1 Waste Management) outright or the Brooks Koepka PGA Championship Degen parlays that were unofficial on Discord!
2020 edition was canceled due to COVID-19
JT Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, and Ryan Moore
Something to note is that I wanted to bet Patton Kizzire 90-1 outright for 0.25u but I could not bet it as it was more than the limit for the books I use so I could only do it for 0.125u
For my parlays this week, I am going to try to add another 0.25u of risk to Henley, I will also look to get some exposure to Adam Hadwin and Eric Cole, and once I get those locked in, I might look to add some 0.05u positions at super long odds to guys like Hubbard, Reavie, Glover, and Bramlett. Part of me wants some Cam Young action too.