If you are a reader of my NFL newsletters each week (or last year’s newsletter where we had a 0.7u profit) you will know that I have mentioned that I am a big fan of the NFL draft and my love of betting on anything I can!!! The draft is less than a week away!! This is a fun time for throwing down the gauntlet on the players you like/don’t like.
In my posts from the last three years, I have been pretty clear about where I think I have been right about players (see: Jackson, Lamar; Rosen, Joshua; Hebert, Justin; Wilis, Malik) and wrong about others (see: Allen, Josh; Lock, Drew, Hurts, Jalen) so I wanted to put in writing my thoughts about this year’s crop. If you do not care about my draft thoughts, you can just scroll down to my bets.
Things to make sure you do not miss:
Over the last year, my model has generated over 81.7u of profit!! Make sure you do not miss this week’s Mexico Open picks!
Events like the NFL Draft are MADE for my Gamblers Paradise Discord, where we will be chatting about all things sports, gambling, the Draft, and Philthy is on a 3-week profit streak for his baseball picks!
2023 QB Class Rankings
Now, let me be clear, I am not Dane Brugler (Note: go get the Beast. It is worth the price of the subscription by itself) as I just watch a ton of college football and use YouTube to help me scout QBs.
Firstly, this year the Draft has a really interesting QB class as I could sell myself on any of them, but they all seem to have a major flaw that could make them fail. Last year every QB-needy team knew that it was a draft that was not great and we saw that with the actual draft, so many were hoping to position themselves for this year. Now this draft class is not as strong as many had hoped and eyes are honestly already turning toward next year’s crop (Caleb and Maye), but let’s chat about this year first!
Before I get into my rankings, never forget the sage advice that Bill Parcel’s wanted in a QB for him to draft one1. Here are my rankings2 of how I think the top guys will be as NFL players and where I would pick them:
Bryce Young - I want to be upfront that I am personally shocked CJ is not #1 for me. I wanted him to be number 1 and I am TERRIFIED by Bryce’s lack of size and smaller hips, but he is just magic on the field. He seems to have eyes in the back of his head. By all reports, he is brilliant and amazingly hard-working, with stories coming out about how he would come in after a game at Alabama and already had studied film on the next opponent and had ideas for the OC on how to attack. It is also not lost on me that the Panthers’ owner went and met behind closed doors with Saban and as soon as he walked away the odds of Young going 1st went from +200 to -250 in about 2 days.
CJ Stroud - He is an unbelievable pocket passer and he throws a gorgeous ball, but we have seen Ryan Day’s offense produce QBs that struggle when they get to the pro’s. I know they say “do not scout the helmet, but it is hard to forget that at Ohio State they check with the coaching staff and that is where all the adjustments come from. I have heard the Goff comparisons and the concern around the best WRs ever, but I watched the Georgia game and his athleticism can be leveraged to make him a difference-maker. I think he has everything that I would personally like in a QB so if I were the Colts, I would trade for Lamar, but if not, I would draft Stroud.
Hendon Hooker - This will likely be the one that shocks people the most and I might be wrong, but I love this player. He might be the most accurate thrower of the ball in this class, but he is OLD. He is going to be 25 and likely will miss a full season because of his knee. If I were say the Titans (via trade) or the Lions, I would consider trying to pick him up in the late 1st, let him heal behind your established guy, and then prepare to have him next year as you plan for your future. Note, I would say he is really a 2nd rounder to me, but I like the late 1st round pick to get the 5th year option that will be vital for him given he will likely miss his first year.
Anthony Richardson - This kid is an absolute freak show. Humans should not be able to do what this kid is able to do. If you watched his performance against Utah and ONLY that game you would think he should be the no doubt #1 overall pick. I know there are a lot of people talking about him getting drafted in the Top 5, but here is my problem with that - I watch a LOT of college football. I have seen Richardson play a bunch of games and he was awful for most of the year. I know he gets compared to Cam Newton and maybe that is just the UF connections, but Cam won a Heisman at Auburn and put that team on his back to win a Natty. Please miss me with that. I would be terrified of drafting him unless I was a team that could sit him for a couple of years or I was a coach/GM who just signed a new 5-year deal and I didn’t mind needing to draft another QB in a couple of years if I whiffed. That allllllll said, he could be the best QB in the NFL in 5 years. We shall see.
Jake Haener - This is going to read somewhat like what I wrote about Desmond Ridder last year, but the difference is that I like this guy in the 3rd round. This kid does not have anything that stands out on him as he is just average in size, speed, and arm, but this kid has unreal anticipation, accuracy, and toughness. I LOVE him. Bonus for me - he meets every one of Bill Parcells’s QB criteria (find, he only started 29 games, but close enough).
Will Levis - Yes, he has the upside to be Josh Allen or (good) Carson Wentz, but I would not draft him until the 4th round and you are going to have to take him WAY higher. I think he is Mike Glennon, (bad) Carston Wentz, or Kyle Boler. I am prepared to be wrong but I think he is really slow processing and that his trust in this big arm and athleticism gets him into REAL trouble in college and will be the downfall of him (and the guy who drafts him) in the pro’s. further, I think he takes way too many hits as his pocket presence is substandard, and, as we saw this past year, once he gets banged up his play drops off dramatically. Also, what the hell is the deal with being scared of milk and putting mayo in his coffee?!?
Clayton Thune - Talk about hitting all the Parcel’s criteria! This kid was unbelievable at Houston where he got almost no help from his D and often times the game was put entirely on his arm. He will absolutely need to develop from their offense and his decision-making definitely needs to improve, but for where I would take him, in the 5th, I would hope he could develop into a top-level backup as he can absolutely make plays and he should be a wideout’s best friend with the way he can throw them open.
I did not get a chance to do Aiden O’Connell from Purdue in detail but do not be surprised if he ends up being pretty good (low-level starter / good backup).
NFL Draft Bets
This is the first set of action for me in the 2023-2024 NFL season (YES I WILL HAVE NFL ACTION THIS YEAR3) and I am excited to get them in and for us to hopefully start cashing tickets. These bets will be tracked and included in my results for this upcoming season.
What you will see below are my picks as well as the explanation for each one as sub-bullets. That way you can make up your own mind as to whether you agree with the reasoning before you commit your own money.
If you are NOT on the Gamblers Paradise discord you have already missed these plays (0.5u each):
Bryce Young 1st overall pick +200 and +120 (Now -1000)
Tyree Wilson first D player +225 (Now -200)
Tyree Wilson 2nd overall pick +325 (Now +125)
Jalen Carter u6.5 +160 (Now -300)
Last year, we had a 0.7u profit so now let’s get to the 2023 the official NFL Draft picks for 8u of risk (all amounts are the risk amounts):
1u on Chicago Bears taking an OL -200
They BADLY need an OL and they should have a couple of good ones there for them to take
0.5u on Christian Gonzalez under 8.5 -120
If he doesn’t go 7 to Atlanta, I think he goes 8 to the Raiders
0.5u on Joey Porter Jr over 19.5 -175
This is one I have been targeting and I am a little put off by the juice so lowering the amount I am risking
0.5u on Myles Murphy over 19.5 -155
He is a SAM LB and has health issues and will be off some boards
0.5u on Quentin Johnston over 26.5 -110
He is the only WR with size, but he does not play that way and that is going to concern teams, as are his hands
0.5u BJ Ojulari to be a 1st round pick +300
I am shocked this is not +150, I expect him to go in the late 20’s.
0.25u on Lukas Van Ness over 15.5 +110
I might be really wrong on him, but I honestly do not think he is very good so I am going on my own assessment
0.25u on Deonte Banks under 20.5 -120
I have been told that there are some teams that are very high on this young man so taking a lower-risk shot
0.25u on Michael Mayer u24.5 -160
He is the number 1 TE for most teams and given all the comparisons to Jason Witten, I expect someone to take him before this spot
0.25u on Green Bay to take a WR +170
I have been told that folks expect them to take JSN, but doing that bet is only +150 so why not give myself the option of all the other WR’s. The reason that this is only 0.25u of a bet is that if I know they are targeting him, then so do others and they can trade ahead of them
0.25u on Under 4.5 QBs taken in R1 +170
From the people I have spoken with in the league, they are far lower on these QBs than the media scouts and this will come down to the pivot player of Hendon Hooker. I know I am higher on him than most, but I just don’t know that he is going to go this early. The other option was to bet Hooker under 31.5 for worse odds and this gives us the out should something crazy happen with another player4
0.25u on Under 3.5 WRs taken R1 -110
This WR crop is super underwhelming with most of them small and from what I have heard, the only consensus first-round5 WR is JSN.
0.25u on CJ Stroud to be the 4th pick +210
I think that the fact the Colts are being sooooo open about liking Will Levis is smoke to get someone to trade up to leave them Stroud.
These are all high-risk picks that are going to be 0.25u each:
Paris Johnson going 3rd +350
Peter Skoronski going 7th +550
Christian Gonzalez going 8th +850
Tampa Bay to take a QB +600
Tennesee Titans to draft Hendon Hooker +700
Detroit Lions to draft Hendon Hooker +1400
Luke Musgrave to be a 1st round pick +6506
As opposed to trying to send more and more posts throughout the weekend I will be posting my 2nd and 3rd-day picks on the Gamblers Paradise discord.
One last Draft thought……. Vontae Mack NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!!!!
Be a three-year starter
Be a senior in college
Graduate from college
Start 30 games
Win 23 games
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
Complete at least 60% of passes thrown
Yes, you can throw this in my face later when I am wrong about Will Levis
Yes, this is a bit of an announcement, I am working on exactly what this will look like, and it won’t be as detailed as prior years but at minimum my NFL model picks will be sent out every week and tracked.
Before you say “What could possibly cause a QB to fall like that”? I ask you to google La’el Collins and Laremy Tunsil.
Worth noting that most teams this year only have 15-16 1st round grades on their boards. If you are asking “but aren’t there 31 picks?” the answer is you can think about this as their top tier of picks
I think folks are sleeping on him and he could sneak in. If you have books that have an over/under for him, I would take the under.