If you are a reader of my NFL newsletters each week (or last year’s newsletter where we had a 0.87u profit) you will know that I have mentioned that I am a big fan of the NFL draft and my love of betting on anything I can!!! The draft is less than a week away!! This is a fun time for throwing down the gauntlet on the players you like/don’t like.
2024 QB Class Rankings
Now, let me be clear, I am not Dane Brugler (Note: go get the Beast. It is worth the price of the subscription by itself) as I just watch a ton of college football and use YouTube to help me scout QBs.
Firstly, this year the Draft is STACKED from a QB perspective. I think it is incredibly deep and there are dudes all over the board that I could see playing in the NFL in 3-4 years.
Before I get into my rankings, never forget the sage advice that Bill Parcells’ wanted in a QB for him to draft one1. Also, of the 68 QBs to start the Super Bowl, 34 were first-round picks and 13 of those were the #1 overall pick! Bucky Brooks also had a great article a couple of months ago that is worth a read on what a crap shoot it is to draft a QB.
Here are my rankings of how I think the top guys will be as NFL players and where I would pick them:
Caleb Williams - He has been asked to drag around a bad USC team and honestly, looks like Mahomes at Texas Tech, but with better running ability and not as much arm talent. They ask him to do a ton and carry an atrocious defense so he does a lot of hero ball and it happened more and more as the season went on which led to mistakes. His pocket sense, his movement, his ability to throw on and off platform, his arm talent, his ability to win with his legs. It is all there. There are a lot of folks who do not like that he paints his nails or that he is open about his emotions, but that does not bother me. What does concern me is that you hear whispers that there are teams concerned with how much he loves football or how he can process. The Bears also seem worried about how he will connect with his teammates, otherwise they wouldn’t do what they did with that dinner. As long as he stays healthy (he is a little slight) and can figure out his fumbles (30 in college is a scary number), I think he is going to be a star.
JJ McCarthy - Okay, let’s get to the eye-raiser right here. I LOVE JJ McCarthy. I would take him in the top 10, but I think how he does in his career might be tied to the team that drafts him. Yes, I get the concerns that he was not asked to do much in college and his throwing to his left is not as good as over the middle or his right, but if I could put him in San Fran, Miami, Denver, or Dallas systems I would do it in a heartbeat.
Jayden Daniels - He is a very decisive and elusive runner and can get to top speed VERY quickly. His ability to throw from the pocket was much improved this year, but he is very slight (he takes VICIOUS hits) and he doesn’t really seem to be able to throw river the middle. I know we will all hear the comparisons to Lamar, but Lamar came from a pro-style offense and was good for multiple years. I would take him in the back half of the 1st round. I could end up looking STUPID, but also think he might be Justin Fields. I am also not so quick to dismiss that Arizona St tape that was not good.
Michael Penix Jr. - Was super up and down at IU and was constantly injured, but since he went to Washington he has put up video game numbers that are eye-popping. He throws an accurate and sexy deep ball, but his throwing motion is unique and could cause him problems at the next level as he throws off his back foot too much. He also has pedestrian numbers when he is moving outside the pocket. I would like him to be drafted someplace that will allow him to develop as a 2nd rounder but would not be surprised if he is over-drafted in the top of the 2nd or late 1st. Medicals will be interesting and determine if he is even on draft boards.
Drake Maye - He has a really high ceiling, but his decision-making is really questionable and his footwork is an absolute mess. I am not sure if he is just making bad decisions or if he can’t read it, but he would terrify me to draft. There are going to be some real questions about whether he has the chops in a big game and why he didn’t elevate his UNC teammates more and his Sophomore year was really bad tape. He will be a top-10 pick, but I would take him in the late 2nd or maybe early 3rd. He can get someone fired.
Bo Nix - He feels like he is 40 because seemingly played college football for a dozen years. Starting at Auburn he looked awful (read: undraftable). That said, he was an absolute revelation at Oregon. He is processing much faster than he was in the SEC and he is finding the open guy as he spreads the ball around quite well. He is a late 3rd or early 4th to me as I am still concerned about what I saw at Auburn and whether he will be able to process the speed of the NFL as well as whether we have already seen his ceiling.
NFL Draft Bets
This is the first set of action for me in the 2024-2025 NFL season and I am excited to get them in and for us to hopefully start cashing tickets. These bets will be tracked and included in my results for this upcoming season.
What you will see below are my picks as well as the explanation for each one as sub-bullets. That way you can make up your own mind as to whether you agree with the reasoning before you commit your own money.
Last year, we had a 0.87u profit so now let’s get to the 2024 official NFL Draft picks for 5u of risk (all amounts are the risk amounts):
0.25u JJ McCarthy is picked by the NYG +470 (FD)
0.25u JJ McCarthy over draft pick number 5.5 +140
While I love JJ, I have been told for a long while that the Giants were looking for a QB. The question is which one and do they need to move up to get one. I honestly don’t think any of the top 3 teams are moving, but NYG could go up for Harrison or Maye. Then we see what Arizona and the Chargers do, but I think they stick and pick, which would mean McCarthy falls to at least 6. Then it becomes a question if the Giants want to roll with the Michigan man.
0.5u Eagles first pick will be a Cornerback +105 (Bovada)
This is just sooooo obvious that it scares me and also almost makes me want to bet the OL position (+150) here but I am not going to over think it as they filled lots of holes this offseason, except for CB. I think they are going to target that early.
0.5u Xavier Legette will be a 1st round pick +140 (FD)
0.25u over 6.5 WR in the 1st round +280 (FD / DK)
You could also bet him in the under 33.5 market (I did), but I think this kid is has a hell of a package and the only thing keeping me from going deeper on this bet is the fact I wanted to limit my action. I also think we are going to see a ton of WR’s go in this first round including some at the back end here to get us over 6.5.
0.5u Graham Barton over 20.5 +130 (Bovada)
I think we are going to see a run on WR’s / top tier OT’s early and corners in the middle of the first round which should push folks like Graham down the board. Further to that point, the medicals on JPJ came back better than folks thought which could have him as the top C on boards.
0.25u Joe Alt will be a Top 5 pick +350 (DK)
This is essentially betting that he will go to the Chargers at 5. I know the scuttlebutt is that the Chargers are going to trade down, and they absolutely could, but I am betting they sit and pick. Now, even if they do that this could be Latham, and he would be a great pick as well, but I think they go for the big boy out of ND.
These are all high-risk picks that are going to be 0.25u each:
Malik Nabers to be the first WR taken +650 (FD)
Bo Nix drafted by the Saints +1600 (DK)
Bo Nix drafted by the Rams +1000 (Bovada)
Cooper DeJean over 22.5 -115 (DK)
Bills first pick is a OL +1000 (FD)
Trey Benson to be the first RB taken +300 (FD)
Quinyon Mitchell to be first defensive player +1500 (DK)
Brock Bowers over 11.5 -110 (BetOnline/Bovada)
Spencer Rattler drafted by the Seahawks +1000 (FD)
Amarius Mims over 21.5 +118 (FD)
As opposed to trying to send more and more posts throughout the weekend I will be posting my 2nd and 3rd-day picks on the Gamblers Paradise discord. You should also come to the Discord as there is not event better for the Discord than this event!
One last Draft thought……. Vontae Mack NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!!!!
Be a three-year starter
Be a senior in college
Graduate from college
Start 30 games
Win 23 games
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
Complete at least 60% of passes thrown