Given that this is the first tournament back for the DP World Tour……
For those who missed it, a couple of weeks ago I published my 2022-2023 Golf campaign performance report that goes deep into the stats (both good and bad) on how I did betting golf last year (well really 15 months). As I stated in that newsletter, similar to the PGA Tour, I am moving to a calendar-based performance cycle so while I will always keep my all-time stats updated we are starting FRESH with this tournament!
Before we get into betting this year, I suggest taking a read-through of my “How to bet golf” newsletter that I published just before the year ended.
Programming note!!
Next week’s picks for the DP World Tour’s Hero Dubai Desert Classic will be behind a paywall for 24 hours. After 24 hours, the paywall will disappear and the picks will be made publicly available. I do this roughly once a month as a thank you to those who choose to support this substack financially. If you would like to do so, click the subscribe button below and choose the $5 per month or $50 per year options! thank you!
Dubai Invitational
The course:
The DP starts back up with a BRAND NEW TOURNAMENT! Nothing like the fun of trying to handicap something that has never happened before!
This new event is going to be at Dubai’s oldest golf course Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club which is known for its sale-shaped clubhouse (see the title picture on this post). This Karl Litten-designed course opened in 19931 and is reported to play to a par 71 across 7,000 yards.
This is a no-cut limited-field event with only 60 DPWT golfers included, who will be playing alongside 60 amateurs in a Pro-Am the first 3 days. The 4th round will be for professionals only and will see someone lift the first trophy for this new bi-annual event.
I would love to tell you I have a good view of how this course will play or a ton about the design, but I would be lying to you. Given that this was cut out of the desert, I expect this to play a bit like a links-style course with the desert winds, but I expect it to be pretty easy. By all reports, the club has done an amazing job with the greens so we could see low scores. The major defense for the course, other than the desert wind, is the supposed high number of bunkers and water hazards they built in.2
Prior results:
There are none!!
The bets:
Given we already have action on the Sony Open (picks here), paired with the fact this tournament is brand new with a limited field and my DPWT picks last year were either great or trash, I am still going to keep it very light this week with just 3u of risk:
Outright:
0.65u Rasmus Hojgaard 18-13
0.33u Thriston Lawrence 35-1
0.18u Dan Brown 70-1
0.16u Jeff Winther 75-1
Top 10 (0.25u each)
Yannick Paul +185
Thriston Lawrence +210
Top 20
0.5u Daniel Brown +125
0.25u Jeff Winther +140
0.25u Adri Arnaus +225
0.25u Nacho Elivra +320
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Good luck with all your action!
For those interested, the property published a “25 Facts Over 25 Years Of Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club” for those who are interested.
Again, I have not seen this course before so I am doing my best from interviews with golfers/reviews I have read about the course.
Yes, I am going with my guy Nicolai’s identical twin brother. I love his game and I think he is going to take the bit between his teeth this year to make the case he belongs with his brother on the PGA Tour.