The PGA Tour’s final wrap-around season ended at the TOUR Championship, the DP World Tour completed their Race to Dubai, and now we have completed the PGA Tour’s Fall series and the start to the next DPWT campaign so, as I stated in my mini-performance reporting, I am going to recap the last 15 months all at once here in preparation for the calendar-based scheduled but first:
Thank you!!
I really want to say thank you to those who came along for this ride!!! I know my posts can be super wordy but hopefully, you have had some fun and made some money with me this PGA Tour and DP World Tour season.
This was my second PGA Tour season and my first DP World Tour and there were definitely ups and downs. Still, hopefully, you have seen how consistent bankroll management, realizing when things aren’t working, making adjustments, and taking calculated risks allowed us to slowly but surely build a really nice return.
Before I get to the recap, keep an eye out next week for a new educational article that deep dives into how I think about golf betting!
Season Recap
Boy, what a season it was. We started September 2022 with a down month where we lost just short of 4u, but with discipline and sticking to our process we saw an October that returned 7.75u and a November that returned 19.9u of profit to leave us with some extra cash for the holidays going into the winter break.
We kicked off 2023 really just treading water with a January profit (0.8u), a February profit (1.25u), a March loss (1.7u), and an April loss (3.1u) before we FINALLY got back on track in May where we had a tidy 6.5u of profit!
We went back to treading in June (0.1u profit) and July (1.2u loss), before we started to hit our stride again. August saw a big profit, followed by September giving us 13.5u more of profit, then we had a lackluster end to the proceeding that saw us give a bunch back in October, November, and December!
Overall we had a massive 13 winners this campaign1:
PGA Tour:
Shriners Children’s Open - Tom Kim 25-1
CJ Cup - Rory McIlroy 7-1
World Wide Technology Championship - Russell Henley 50-1
Cadence Bank Houston Open - Tony Finau 20-1
AT&T Byron Nelson - Jason Day 20-1
the Memorial - Viktor Hovland 22-1
Rocket Mortgage Classic - Rickie Fowler 14-1
Barracuda Championship - Akshay Bhatia 33-1
BMW Championship - Viktor Hovland 16-1
TOUR Championship - Xander Schaffele (72 hole score) 12-1
DP World Tour:
Horizon Irish Open - Vincent Norrman 50-1
Open de España - Mattheiu Pavon 90-1
DP World Tour Championship - Nicolai Hojgaard 25-1
Overall this season we made 1035 bets, which have led to 39.1 units of profit! We have had 15 months with bets in them with 7 losing months and 8 winning months. November 22 and August 23 were our most profitable months with 19.9u of profit in each, while October 23 was our worst month with 11.3u of losses.
Now that is all well and good, but let’s dig a little deeper….
Our most profitable guys to bet on (excluding outright bets) have been
Patrick Cantlay - 19 bets - 9.3u profit
Jason Day - 15 bets - 5.9u profit
Scottie Scheffler - 17 bets - 5.6u profit
Rickie Fowler - 11 bets - 4.3u profit
Keegan Bradley - 9 bets - 3.8u profit
Vincent Norrman - 4 bets - 3.2u profit
Our least profitable guys (excluding outright bets) have been:
Sungjae Im - 20 bets - 6.3u loss
Luke List - 8 bets - 5.3u loss
Si Woo Kim - 21 bets - 3.8u loss
Corey Conners - 7 bets 3.4u loss
Adrian Meronk - 6 bets - 3.4u loss
For outright bets, the numbers are super skewed, hence why I excluded them above, but our biggest winners are:
Viktor Hovland - 2 bets - 2 wins - 27u profit
Nicolai Hojgaard - 2 bets - 1 win - 17.5u profit
Matthiew Pavon - 2 bets - 1 win - 17.1 profit
Vincent Norrman - 2 bets - 1 win - 17.1u profit
Xander Schauffele - 4 bets - 1 win - 10.8u profit
For outright losers, our biggest losers are:
Patrick Cantlay - 10 bets - 6.8u loss
Sungjae Im - 9 bets - 4.1u loss
Adrian Meronk - 6 bets - 3.3u loss
Tyrrell Hatton - 6 bets - 3.3u loss
Si Woo Kim - 8 bets - 2.8u loss
Soooooo what does this all tell me…..
Only bet on Viktor Hovland to win and that freaking Patrick Cantlay is due to win win a freaking tournament for us!!!! Joking aside, it is really interesting how Cantlay is top of the most profitable, but killing us in the outright markets.
Overall though I am pretty pleased with this year. I feel like we are seeing the fruits of tons of hard work and that my numbers are coming through more often than not and that is why we are having great success outright but also in the placement markets (T10, T20, and T40) across tours and across time, with over 20u of profit this year in the placement markets. As we move into 2024 and onshore books become more prevalent, I will be looking to leverage the T40 market more and more as those markets become more available to my subscribers.
The other big thing that needs to be discussed is the atrocity that was head-to-head matchups this year, which cost us over 11u. They were horrible and so as we move into 2024, I will likely move a bit away from this action as it is really just costing us money week to week. Yes, I will still have some, but I will likely focus on 1 or 2 matchups a week that seem to have the most implied value.
Open Futures Tickets!!
As we end the 2022-2023 campaign I want to make sure EVERYONE has a reminder of the open tickets we have going into the 2024 calendar year (I am pulling the current odds from Bovada for ease/reference):
88th Masters
0.5u on Will Zalatoris +4500 (From July 3rd and Oct 2nd) ← Currently +3000
0.5u on Cam Young +3300 (From July 24th) ← Currently +2500
106th PGA Championship
0.5u Rickie Fowler +4000 (From July 24th) ← Currently +4000
124th US Open
0.5u on Rickie Fowler +4000 (From July 24th) ← Currently +4000
152nd Open
0.5u on Tony Finau +5000 (From July 24th) ← Currently +4000
Support if you can!
If you are so inclined, I would appreciate any financial support you are willing to give to help keep this pirate ship afloat! Doing all this work takes time, effort, and money! There are a number of options like opting in for the $5 per month subscription, the $50 per year subscription, going to my Twitter profile and clicking the tip button, or just DM’ing me and we can figure something out!
This does not include the following unofficial plays: Scottie Scheffler at the Waste Management at 14-1 (Discord), Shane Lowry 16-1 at the BMW PGA Championship (Twitter), Beau Hossler 45-1 FRL (Discord), and 3 Degen Parlay plays on Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship and a degen parlay play Sahith Theegala at 36-1 at the Fortinet!