NFL 2022-2023 Season Performance
Thank you
First I just want to say thank you!!! I know I can be verbose, but hopefully you have had some fun during NFL season even if it turned out to be unprofitable as we gave back just about 20 units.
I ALWAYS believe in transparency so I wanted to make sure this newsletter went out, even if it was later than it should have been given my stepping away in Jan-Feb.
What’s next
Obviously, I have been pretty clear that this newsletter will not continue as it had been last year as I just do not have the bandwidth. I am hopeful it can return in some way, but that is yet to be decided
I LOVE the NFL draft because it of course gives us an opportunity to wager, but it really lays the foundation for these teams and my player-level predictions that drive my early-season betting and fantasy football work for each season.
This offseason I plan on providing an NFL Draft preview (here is last year’s) with wagering information and some of my views on the players. I am NOT an NFL scout nor do I break down 600+ players like the great Dane Brugler1, but I do my best to figure out what is going on and I will use that note lay out some of my fav guys. As you have seen in my columns I make mention of players I liked/didn’t like in the past and I hope to bring some of that content to you.
In case you happened to do way better than I did this NFL season and you have questions about taking profits and growing your bankroll, I can only tell you what I do. At some point, I stopped growing my betting amounts as certain amounts were unscary for me so now I operate with more than 100u bankroll and that works okay for me. What I still do though is that I take half my profits and leave it in my bankroll but twice a year (February and Sept) I take the other half of my profits every year and give some to charity and I put it in saving or I buy something cool/that I have wanted (in early 2022 I used NFL profits to buy an amazing Traeger Smoker!)
Now without further ado, let’s get to the season recaps!
Season Recap - Summary
If you started the year with 10k and were doing $100 per unit then you ended the year with about 8,000 left for a return of -20%. Obviously, that is below the standards I want to set and clearly it is hard for me to tell you how successful of a year it was.
As you can see from the picture below, we did not have a straight line to our season-ending total.
If this disappointing season teaches folks anything, I hope it shows that with disciplined betting and bankroll management, you can have a really hard and unfortunate year, BUT you will not blow out your whole bankroll and will have plenty of cash left to come back next fall.
I say that because I know there are people you can buy picks from that chase and lose money hand over fist. I know there are folks who get emotional and chase (I have certainly been guilty of it), but the BEST thing you can do is still to tight bankroll management and betting strategy so when things go poorly you do not lose everything.
Season Recap - Detailed
As I mentioned above, we had a really disappointing year to put our overall performance to 30u of profit for the three years I have been doing this. Now, you might say we 30u isn’t that great but remember that the goal is long-term profits!
I always think of gambling as I do investing; you are putting your money at risk and hoping for a return. Much like the stock market, the numbers will go up and they will go down and we just need to end with more than we started with and you need to not take risks that will limit your ability to make future money.
The plays coming directly from my TitanicModel had a less bad season and produced ~2.7u of losses, but honestly, the only real bright spot was our futures bets (5.8u of profit), especially the team futures which produced 8.7 units.
The really interesting thing was that last year our profit was primarily driven by tremendous success with 0.25, 0.5, and 1u plays, but this year the only thing that really performed was 3u picks, and 1u picks were over 50% but were slightly unprofitable.
I also want to take this time to show you week by week, exactly how we did:
Again, I want to apologize for how disappointing this season was, as well as for my stepping away when we got to the playoffs. This was not how I expected this to go, but again, I hope you stuck to tight bankroll management and you have enough to dust yourself off and go again in the fall!
I hope to see you all back here, but as of now, can’t promise anything.
If you are unfamiliar with Dane, I HIGHLY recommend checking him out over at the Athletic. His draft guide “the Beast” is by far the best guide there is and I keep them year after year so that I can always look back and it is impressive how good he truly is.