We are exactly 50 days from the start of the NFL Season and training camps are opening (Jets open today!!) so I figured it was the perfect time to roll out my plans for this upcoming year!!!
For those who were with me last season, thank you so much for returning!! We had a rough season and I had to take a bit of a step back for personal reasons during the playoffs, but I am back and ready to go for this upcoming season!
If you are new since the last NFL season, I am so glad you decided to join up, and trust me to help guide you through this NFL season.
The NFL is my favorite pro sport and I have honestly been looking forward to the NFL season since the confetti fell last February so I really can’t wait to get this season in full swing.
This newsletter will lay out the following:
Season preview
What a normal week will look like
Some important things to note
What I lay out in this post is my initial plan. I reserve the right to deviate/change things as I go if certain things are working better than others or I get a new idea.
Season Preview
Similar to last season I will be putting out NFL season preview content, but different from last year I will likely condense the posts that I do. Last year I had 3 or 4 posts and this year I will likely only have 1 or 2.
I anticipate those previews having:
My QB rankings (yes, I am doing this again so get ready to make fun of my rankings)1
My futures bets (both player and team ones)2
Fantasy players, I like and dislike
My predictions for every division and the playoffs (last year’s Bills over Eagles SuperBowl was so close to being a reality)
This big preview newsletter will likely be out the day after the final preseason games are played.
Make sure you are signed up for our Gamblers Paradise Discord! It is an amazing community that chats about all things sports and betting and we are in there all day on Saturday and Sunday talking about football!
Normal Week’s Schedule
Each week of the NFL season you should expect 2 NFL newsletters each week, and yes this is a bit of a change from last year but unfortunately, the days of the VERY long Friday column are behind us as they really just took too much time and effort and while I know there were tons of folks who loved it, I apologize but that is just not feasible.
Here is my plan for each week:
EDIT NOTE: based on feedback I changed have updated the below.
On Wednesday or Thursday - thanks to feedback going to do this via substack not Twitter as originally planned
My normal NFL recap reporting
My pick/bets for the Thursday Night Football game will be sent out
Friday Afternoon or Saturday
You will get a report that shows each of the Sunday and Monday games with something somewhat similar to my NBA content. I have not fully built it out yet but I am thinking of something like this:
Important things to note
These may be obvious to some (especially if you were with me last NFL season), but want to make sure they are explicitly said:
My model/picks use a base of $100 per unit - do NOT bet that amount if that is more than you can afford!! Personally, I will NEVER bet less than the unit amount I tell you based on that $100/unit, but my bankroll has shifted over the last 2 years so I may bet more based on my personal risk appetite and feelings.
I use the 1% bankroll method so my units equal 1% of my bankroll (for those doing the math $100/unit = $10K bankroll). I mostly bet in 0.5u, 1u, 2u, and 3u increments. Generally speaking, you will see a bunch of 0.5u and 1u bets each week, 2u bets will be relatively uncommon and 3u bets rare. While I do use 0.25u bets it is mostly when I am doing parlays as I like small risks with big returns.
You CAN and SHOULD have different unit sizes per sport! Are you equally confident betting on all sports? I am not!!! As I have said in the past I think you should keep 100 units per sport, but let’s say you only have 10K total to wager and want to bet 3 sports….no problem at all, you could do 5K for NFL ($50 units), 3K for PGA ($30 units) and 2k for College Football ($20 units). This is how I do my betting! My unit size for NFL and golf is far greater than what I bet on things like MMA, Soccer, and Cricket.
If you are unfamiliar with my NFL process, here is a link to when I wrote it up last year.
When I hit send on my picks, the lines/odds you see quoted there are based on what is available on BetOnline or Bovada at that time.
You can ALWAYS email me (just hit reply to the email you get from me) or DM me on Twitter at any time if you have questions about this or any of my posts!
Before you send me messages, please keep in mind this place is free so when we hit a rough patch remember I am losing too and that the path to long-term profits is NEVER straight.
Let’s have a kick-ass season!!
Likely in the next few weeks
This is the one part of my content that was VERY profitable last season