First and foremost today is Veterans’ Day here in the US. I want to just take this moment to recognize all our current and former service members, and their families, who have sacrificed so much to protect this country. I have friends and family members who have served/continue to serve and I am in awe of them. You all are the best and bravest among us. Thank you today and every day.
Now that we are starting to have some more positive results here but I want to address something that came up a few times in my emails/DMs when we were really riding the struggle bus and that is - who is responsible for the bets you make?
Let’s start with this - I do not believe you should blindly follow anyone’s betting and that includes me! I know that sounds silly for someone who gives out picks each week but here is why: Ultimately when you hit “submit bet” or hand over your cash to a teller, the only person responsible for that wager is you.
What you see in this, or really any of my, newsletters are my and my model’s analysis of games and how I am personally wagering based on my analysis and my risk appetite at the time of publishing. As I have always said, I will never put a wager in one of these that I won’t personally risk at least as much as I say to, but that does NOT mean that every wager I make is right for you or that it is the only wager I will make (e.g., live bets, bets made just before kick-off, first-round leaders in golf).
This newsletter has always been meant to be a source of information for folks to do with as they think is best. I know there are some who read my newsletter and only bet the 2u and 3u plays. That works. I know there are some who only bet on the model’s picks and ignore my bullshit commentary. OK. I know there are some who follow the model’s plays but ignore all the exotics. Fine.
I know there are some who read this entire thing and then make their own decisions using my and my model’s analysis as input to their decision-making process. Perfect!!
If you are someone that follows every single wager from my newsletters, I really appreciate the trust and faith and I hope I do not let you down. While I do try my best to tell you what went into my decision-making process (especially for NFL) you should remember that I am human, I have biases, and it is impossible for me to share everything I take into account with you.
When betting you should be taking into account your personal circumstances, your risk appetite, your bankroll management techniques, your sportsbook’s rules1, or any of a myriad of the thousands of things before you hit “submit bet” or hand over your cash to the teller. All I can ever do is tell you what I am doing and what is right for me at that moment and if you choose to come along for the ride you have to own that decision, for better or for worse.
Week 10
Things of note this week:
We have had 2 profitable weeks in a row (which is lovely) so let’s make it 3!
This week we have 4 teams on byes with the Bengals, Patriots, Jets, and Ravens getting a week off.
Per the NFL, the Steelers, Giants, Washington, and Philly are the luckiest teams in the NFL while the Panthers, Bengals, Bills, and Browns have the least amount of luck.
Per the Action Network, 2H unders this season: 78-53-5; teams trailing at half are 73-49-1 ATS in the 2H
This week’s games:
Game 1: Falcons @ Panthers (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Game 2: Seahawks @ Buccaneers (Sunday 9:30 am)
Stat that might matter -
This game is taking place in Munich, Germany
Last week was only the seventh time since 2000 that a team failed on fourth-and-goal from the 10 or closer while trailing by four points in the final two minutes of regulation. The other six teams lost; the Bucs won.
Titanic Model Output - 3u Seattle Seahawks +3 (-115) - published Wed
My 2 cents - This line is incredibly suspicious to me. Geno is playing so well right now and he did so last week when facing actual pressure. As Michael Lombardi points out, they are basically running the Rams’ offense they used to get to the SB with Goff and doing a great job of it. Their defense is getting better and better (as I tried to warn the 33rd Team) and I think they are going to cause real problems for the Bucs. Let’s go Seahawks.
Game 3: Vikings @ Bills (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - this game is going to be played in some nasty weather
Stat that might matter -
Per Mike Sando’s great analysis, Josh Allen has historically not been good under pressure. While he was good in Weeks 1-8 this year, last week reverted back to being poor under pressure.
The Vikings have the worst redzone defense in the NFL allowing opponents to score a TD 78.9% of the time
The Bills have the best 3rd down offense in the NFL, converting 52.2% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Bills -3.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - This is the start of a tough run for the Vikings where they will play @ Buffalo, vs Dallas, NE, and the NYJ so if you still think they are frauds we should check back in a couple of weeks. The Vikings were by far the better team last week. They really should have covered the 3 points. I mean did we forget that the Ref tackled their safety to give up a touchdown? As we are starting to see if you can run the ball at and on the Bills and you can keep their D on the field (and more importantly their offense off it), you can have some success. That all said, I think we see the Bills really put the hammer down on the Vikings. I just think this happens to be a bad matchup where the Bills’ defense will really come to play and cause Cousins issues. All that said, Josh Allen and the Bills’ injury report is all that matters, but this line has dropped so far that I am okay with this limited risk.
Game 4: Lions @ Bears (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - Will be mid 30’s
Stat that might matter -
Goff is 4-7-1 SU; 3-9 ATS in bad weather
The Lions are the worst 3rd down defense in the NFL allowing opponents to convert at a 51% rate; the Bears are the 2nd worst at 50.5%
The Lions have the best 4th best red zone offense in the NFL, scoring a TD 71.4% of the time; the Bears have the 5th worst red zone defense allowing a TD 67.7% of the time
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - How about my guy Justin Fields?!? I still own all my land on Justin Fields Island and I am seeing property values go up! He is super athletic and so fast, but he definitely needs more development as a true QB. I really love that you are seeing the development week to week. I saw my Cowboys struggle with them 2 weeks ago and Miami had no answers last week. Let’s see if the Lions’ newfound defense can stop him! Now the Lions team was impressive last week, but we are talking about small-hands Goff in cold weather!! So why am I following my model and passing? This line seems VERY suspicious and we are talking about an overrated team vs an underrated team so I expect everyone to be all in on the Bears - I’m out, but the Lions smell like the right side
Game 5: Broncos @ Titans (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Titans have the best 3rd down defense in the NFL allowing opponents to convert only 28.6% of the time; the Broncos have the 2nd worst 3rd down offense in the NFL, converting 29.2% of the time
The Broncos lost their starting Center for at least 4 games.
Per Joe Osborne, the Broncos are 19-6 to the under since the start of last season
The Broncos have by far the best redzone defense in the NFL allowing opponents to score a TD only 26.3% of the time, second is 42.1%; the Titans have the best redzone offense in the NFL scoring a TD 78.9% of the time
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Okay, this might be the biggest coaching mismatch of the week. Vrable has his team playing way better than their talent and Hackett is basically the exact opposite. With respect to Hackett’s team, if you watched the Broncos / Jags game a couple of weeks ago and took away from it that the Broncos are “back” I have bad news for you. Go watch the tape. The Jags were AWFUL on defense and blew assignments all over the place. They take on a Titans team that many people are saying should have won the game vs the Chiefs the other night. Well in the NFL generally speaking it is 15 yards per point that a team scores. Versus the Chiefs, on Sunday night they got outgained 499 to 229 so the score should have been roughly 33-15. That is not sustainable football. I want nothing to really do with this game other than the under though if I HAD to I would bet the Broncos.
Game 6: Jaguars @ Chiefs (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Cheifs have the 2nd best 3rd down offense in the NFL, converting 50% of the time
The Jaguars are the 6th best team in the NFL in moving the ball and getting at least 1 first down
The Jaguars have the most first downs in the NFL
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Jags +9.5 (-110)
My 2 cents -What a comeback by the Jags last week! I know many people left them for dead when they got down 17 and I was giving someone in the discord a ribbing with my familiar refrain of “Lots of time left” and I think we saw two big things. One is that the Raiders can be shocking on defense, but also that the Jaguars are as talented as any team, and if they can hit their stride they really can cause other NFL teams problems. Sure, it sucks to bet against the Chiefs, but have they really looked good? They are coming on a shorter turnaround after a brutal physical gave vs the Titans. Give me the points.
Game 7: Browns @ Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - Mid 80’s but some rain
Stat that might matter -
Miami’s defense is 27th by DVOA; 27th by my model’s calculations
Within their last few games, the ‘Phins have given up 40 points to the Jets, let the Lions score 27 on almost 400 yards, and last week they gave up 32 points and 252 rushing yards to the Bears.
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Cleveland +3.5 (-120)
My 2 cents - Tua underthrows about 4 balls a week and it is astonishing to me that no one brings this up. Watch him try to throw outside the numbers and where most guys throw it on a rope he normally one-hops it. I wish I could find a stat of how long Tyreek Hill waits wide-open for balls to get to him. I know folks like to talk about Tua and his WR’s but their defense is absolute garbage. Look at those stats!! Their defense is too slow to play that side-to-side offense so I am super interested to see if they can stop the Browns. Obviously, my model seems to think the Browns are going to march this up and down the field on them and I think it is right. Let’s go Browns and I like the over!
Game 8: Texans @ Giants (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Joe Osborne, the Giants are on a stretch at home that's seen them go an incredible 14-1-1 to the under since Nov. 15, 2020
The Giants are the 2nd worst in the league in opponent yards per carry
Titanic Model Output - 2u on NY Giants -4.5 (-108)
My 2 cents - Look, let’s get right to it - Davis Mills might be the worst QB in the NFL. He is awful. They seem to only be able to win games where their D shows up and Dameon Pierce runs his ass off. Well, unfortunately, the Giants aren’t great at run D, but sometimes when it comes down to picking the best coach and best QB. In this game, it is really easy to choose which side is better. My model likes the Giants and the Giants are realllllly well-coached and, when push comes to shove, I will take a well-coached team coming off the bye.
Come hang out in our 100% free discord where we are always talking sports and gambling!!
Game 9: Saints @ Steelers (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - We might see some snow
Stat that might matter -
The Steelers opponents have the 3rd best starting field position averaging starting at their own 30.2-yard line; the Saints have the best average starting field position in the NFL starting at their own 30.7-yard line
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on New Orleans -1.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Something to keep an eye on the Steelers is that their defense is a really slow defense. As a former NFL GM says “If you are fast at MLB, you have a fast D” and their MLB is not fast but it does look like they may have TJ Watt back which will be huge for them. I believed in the Saints last week and they got absolutely smacked around. I am not really sure how you trust either of these teams - pass.
Game 10: Colts @ Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Colts have trailed at halftime in their last 11 games
Per Mike Sando, NFL teams are 45-5-1 this season in games they’ve led by at least 17 points; the Raiders are 1-3.
The Raiders lost Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller for at least 4 games
The Raiders are the 3rd worst 3rd down defense in the NFL allowing opponents to convert at a 48% rate
The Raiders have the 2nd worst redzone defense in the NFL allowing opponents to score a TD 74.1% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Indy +4.5
My 2 cents - Was last week’s Colts’ offensive performance the worst offensive performance this season? Jesus Christ that was brutal. It has finally gotten too much for Jim Irsay and he finally fired Frank Reich2. The Colts have hired Jeff Saturday to run the team and have asked Parks Frazier (great name) to call plays. Do we see a new coach bump? I think we might! Especially given that we have seen the Raiders blow big lead after big lead, is super banged up, and is there a team that can seem to change quarter to quarter more than the Raiders? Maybe, but I am going to pass.
Game 11: Cowboys @ Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Weather Report - mid 30’s and might see snow
Stat that might matter -
Dez caught it
Per RJ Ochoa, through 8 games the 2021 Cowboys had 16 sacks and 14 takeaways, the 2020 Cowboys have 33 sacks and 13 takeaways.
Per Ed Werder, the Packers are averaging 17.1 PPG, the fewest since 1992 when it was Favre’s first season in Green Bay.
Per Jeff Kolb, Dallas has lost 8 of their last 9 in Lambeau Field
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dallas -4 (-115)
My 2 cents - Last week we saw all the rust fall off of Dak as he was outstanding vs the Bears; check the advanced stats. Also, major credit to Kellen Moore for that game plan as he had the Bears’ defense attempting to defend the whole field and they could not, but this is really not new. Since the start of last year, there have been 6 games where a team has scored 49+, 3 of which are the Cowboys. With the Cowboys coming off the bye, do not be surprised if you see Trupin more involved on offense. I know there is lots of talk that Pollard should be the new starter at RB, but I agree with Super Bowl-winning former scout Bryan Broaddus and that the mix of Pollard and Zeke will pay long-term dividends and the Cowboys’ RB coach points out that Pollard gets tired quickly so you need both. Now for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is another QB (like Kyler) who looks miserable and his body language sucks out loud. I said last week I thought he was still playing well and this week I am here to tell you that 2 of the 3 picks were not his fault (he badly underthrew the goalline one). That said their team is BANGED up. They lost Gary for the season and 5 other starters left the game hurt last week.
Game 12: Cardinals @ Rams (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Joe Osborne, Rams opponents are 8-0 when teased by 6 points
The Rams have the 2nd best redzone defense in the NFL allowing opponents to score a TD only 42.1% of the time
The Cardinals have been outscored 58-16 in the first quarter this season
Kyle Shanahan is 11-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 points or more
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Okay so last Sunday evening I had the Rams/Bucs game on and the Rams stopped the Bucs on 4th down by the goal line with 1:52 left and so I turned it off to walk my dog. I came back to see the Buccaneers celebrating a win. I honestly do not know how they blew that game. Something to keep an eye on with this game is that the Rams have one of the worst home crowds in the NFL3. The Rams are AWFUL on offense, especially when you removed Cooper Kupp's numbers. On top of that, we might be seeing John Wolford playing if Stafford’s concussion keeps him out, and keep an eye on Kyler as he didn’t practice this week either. I do not want to be repetitive, but the Cardinals suck. I really do not know how to say it in any new and creative ways. I am going to take a shot with the Rams, but 1H.
Game 13: Chargers @ 49ers (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Stat that might matter -
While the 49ers do not go for it on 4th down often (5th least in the NFL), they convert at the 3rd highest rate 71.4%
Per Football Outsider, the Chargers are the 4th worst rush defense in the NFL
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I tried to tell you in Week 3 to take a look at SF’s NFC odds (then +900 now +450) and SB odds (then +2000, now +100). Now we saw two weeks ago just how dangerous this offense can be with CMC and once they get Debo back and their defense healthy they will be a very difficult out. They really seem like they are about to go on a run. Speaking of running, the Chargers could not stop the run at all vs the Falcons last week, what makes us think they will be able to stop the 49ers? I think this is a complete coaching mismatch. I know my model says to pass, so I will look to use the 49ers in my exotics.
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All The Plays
Model Plays:
3u play
Seahawks +3
2u plays
Browns +3.5
NY Giants -4.5
1u plays
Atlanta -2.5 - Loss
Colts +4.5
Cowboys -4
0.5u plays
Bills -3.5
Jaguars +9.5
Saints -1.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
1u on LAR 1H ML (-125)
0.5u on Cle / Mia over 49.5 (-110)
0.25u on Den / Ten under 39 (-105)
0.25u on NYG / Hou under 41 (-107)
0.25u on LAR / Ari under 40 (-110)
1u 6pt teaser -120 on S49ers -1 / Lions +9
1u 6pt teaser -115 on Seahawks +8.5 / Browns +9.5
0.5u 6pt teaser -115 on Steelers +7.5 / Broncos +9
1u parlay -106 on Cowboys -210 / 49ers -310
0.5u parlay +115 on Cowboys -220 / NY Giants -210
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +463 on Browns +150 / Seahawks +125
Player Props
0.5u on Travis Ettiene over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)
0.25 on Wilson over 225.5 passing yards (-115)
0.25u on Tua to throw an INT (+100)
0.25u on Aaron Rodgers to throw an INT (+140)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
Especially for things like dead heats in golf or ties are losses in teasers, these are things that differ by book and can have huge ramifications on value.
This was a long time coming. He laid his neck on the line for Phil Rivers and that worked ok, but then he went all in on Wentz and it was brutal. Then (per my sources) he sold the organization that Ryan would be a major improvement over Wentz both on the field and in the locker room and that clearly did not work out and lost him all his credibility.
A couple of weeks ago it was a sea of red for the 49ers game and earlier this season when they played the Cowboys it was basically a Dallas home game