Legendary Coach Bill Parcells used to say that you do not really know who your team is until Thanksgiving. Well, here we are! Let’s run through each division and see where we stand:
AFC East - Arguably the best division (alongside the NFC East) in the NFL. I think we are finding out that the Jets and Pats have good defenses but are way too limited/inconsistent on offense. Miami is the exact opposite as they can score on anyone but can’t stop a runny nose. I still think Buffalo is the class here, but have wobbled a bit.
AFC North - Ravens seem to keep getting wins as they need them and will be helped by an easy schedule. Cinci is good and should be feared but they have a tough stretch coming up. The Browns have been really lackluster but get Watson back shortly and the Steelers are doing things with smoke and mirrors.
AFC South - Titans are the easy favorites here and should waltz to the title. They will also be a team folks think they want to play in the playoffs until they see the defensive scheme and try and tackle Derrick Henry. The Colts have had more fight recently, but I am not sold. Jags are talented but make too many mistakes. Houston…woof.
AFC West - Chiefs are the class here and the rest are really flawed. I love Justin Herbert going back to Oregon days, but at some point, he is going to have to win some games. The Raiders can’t play any defense and the Broncos can’t play any offense (and I have been saying Russ sucks since before the season).
NFC East - The Eagles should continue to roll given a bad schedule but they are starting to show some vulnerabilities. Did they peak too early? Cowboys are the Cowboys and I do not think anyone is going to believe they will win in a big spot until they do. I know everyone has been calling the Vikings frauds, but the really NFC frauds are the Giants and I expect them to miss the playoffs. Washington keeps poking around I would not be shocked if they end up the 7th seed.
NFC North - Vikings will win this in a walk. The rest of these teams are flawed and will go nowhere fast but they can be dangerous on their day
NFC South - Who the hell knows? haha
NFC West - I think San Fran is the answer here. They are the most consistent and have the best unit of the bunch (their defense). Seattle’s D continues to improve, but I think at some point their offense will fail them. The Cards are better without Kyler and that is not great given how much he is paid and the Rams look about as broken as can be.
All in all, I think we have seen 5 teams (Buffalo, KC, Dallas, Philly, and San Fran) separate themselves from the pack a bit and we have 2 teams (Baltimore and Cinci) eyeballing that gap and thinking that if they get healthy they can close that distance and you have one team (Minny) that truly believes they should be part of that group but gets slapped around every time they play one of those teams.
Week 12
Things of note this week:
Per the ActionNetwork, teams had been 0-8 straight up in their next game after playing the Carolina Panthers going into last week, but both the Falcons and Bengals broke that steak
Per ActionNetwork, going into Week 12:
Favorites are 98-62-1 straight up on the season, but underdogs are 88-67-6 (56.8%) against the spread
Unders are 92-69-2 (57.1%) this season and primetime unders are 19-13-1 (59.4%)
Thanksgiving Day:
We had the slightest of profits yesterday thanks to add-on picks.
Game 1: Bills @ Lions (Thursday 12:30 pm)
Game 2: Giants @ Cowboys (Thursday 4:30 pm) - win +0.45u
Game 3: Patriots @ Vikings (Thursday 8:20 pm) - loss -2u
Sunday:
I am not seeing prop markets having a lot of options so I will send a props update tomorrow or Sunday morning.
Edit note: as of 2:15pm ET on Saturday the props have been added below
Game 4: Buccaneers @ Browns (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - cold, rainy, and windy
Stats that might matter -
Per Football Outsiders, the Buccaneers have the 30th rushing offense and the Browns have the 32nd rushing defense
Brady is 7-1 SU vs the Browns in his career
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Cleveland +3 (+100)
My 2 cents - Last time out the Buccaneers turned back the clock to Week 1 and used their running game to open things up and it looked MUCH better. The Bucs were also helped on a slow, soggy, thick field that slowed down what is a quick Seattle D. This will be an odd one given this is the last game before Deshaun Cosby comes back full-time. Obviously, the Browns’ rush defense sucks, but I think that comes down to the fact their analytics people have filled the team with small fast dudes. That should play right into the rushing attack of the Bucs so I like White’s over here. I have gone back and forth on this and I am going with the Browns here and what pushed me across the line is the fact that EVERYONE seems to be picking the Bucs.
Game 5: Bengals @ Titans (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stats that might matter -
The Bengals are the 3rd-best offense in the NFL converting 3rd downs (48.4%), while the Titans are the best 3rd-down defense in the NFL allowing conversations 30.1% of the time
The Titans have covered in their last 8 games
The Bengals opened the season 0-2 against the spread with five straight unders and have been 7-1 ATS and 4-0-1 to overs since
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Titans +3 (-120)
My 2 cents - The Bengals are on the back-to-back road games and they get another really good defense. When I saw this game on the card I originally thought I would be on the Bengals and honestly the more I thought about it the more I like Tennessee. It does not look like Mixon will play and I think folks underrate how good he is. I am not sure if Chase will be back but I have faith that the Vrabel vs Taylor matchup is one that favors the Titans in a very big way. I am going to rock with my model, but not use the Titans further than that.
Game 6: Texans @ Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stats that might matter -
Per Ben Fawkes, Davis Mills has been an underdog in every start so far and is only the 5th QB to have that distinction this far into his career
The Texans are the 4th-worst offense in the NFL converting red zone trips into TDs (44.4%), while the Dolphins are the 5th-worst red zone defense, allowing a TD 68.8% of the time
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Okay, I have been a Tua denier for a while and it is starting to sink in that I was wrong. Yes, his arm is not strong enough to make all the throws and some of his receivers will be WIDE open waiting for his ball which is all true. That said, his anticipation, accuracy, and working the field with his eyes are truly elite. I will be really interested to see when they play better and faster D’s, but I do not expect them to get a ton of challenge from this Texans team that has now benched Davis Mills and will be starting Kyle Allen. I do not love this game but I think Dolphins do well here, but I am concerned that EVERYONE is betting on the Dolphins so I am going with my model and passing.
Game 7: Bears @ Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - rainy
Stats that might matter -
Per Trey Wingo, last week the Jets had more punts (10) than completions (9)
Per the Jets coin-flip prophecy, the Jets will win this game
The Jets are the 4th-worst offense in the NFL converting 3rd downs (32.4%), while the Bears are the 2nd worst 3rd-down defense in the NFL allowing conversations 48.1% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 1u on NY Jets -5.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Zach Wilson was straight-up bad last week. How bad? Take a look at that punt/completion stat!! I am a fan of Daniel Jeremiah, but I disagree with his making some excuses for the kid. He has been terrible and, as Doug Clawson points out, his first 20 starts are pretty much the same as JaMarcus Russell’s and now he has Garrett Wilson sounding off1. At least Robert Saleh knows the team's performance was "dog shit" and have benched him, so now former Hilltopper Mike White gets to face a shockingly poor Bears defense. For the Bears, we saw again last week that when the game gets late, they will struggle to pass the ball and they might not have Justin Fields this week. I think the Jets run this down their throats. Give me the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets.
Game 8: Falcons @ Washington (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - rainy
Stats that might matter -
Cordarrelle Patterson has the most kick return touchdowns (9) in NFL history
The Falcons’ offense averages 6 points less on the road
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - This seems like a bad matchup for the Falcons as they are so one-dimensional as they rely so heavily on their run game and go against a Washington team that has the DL to stop you cold. I told you last week I felt like the Falcons were the right side and I was proven out. Now this team has lost Kyle Pitts and will go up against this fun Washington team that may have Chase Young back. This seems like this should be a really fun game that is going to come down to the end and I can’t wait. I totally expect to send an “Atlanta / Washington is drunk” message to the discord, but I will be watching with very limited funds at risk as I pass.
Game 9: Broncos @ Panthers (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stats that might matter -
Per Rich Hribar, Denver is the only team remaining in the league that has not run a single offensive play this season leading by double digits
If the Broncos scored 18 points in the regulation of every game they would be 9-1
Per Joe Osborne (pre-last week), the Broncos are 21-6 to the under since the start of last season, 9-1 to the under this season
The Broncos (28.2%) and the Panthers (28%) are the two worst 3rd down offenses in the NFL
The Broncos have the best red-zone defense, allowing a TD 27.3% of the time, and the worst red-zone offense, scoring 36.4% of the time….both of those are the only ones under 42.5% in the league
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - God this might be the two worst offenses in the NFL and, per the ActionNetwork, this total is the lowest in the last decade. As bad as the Broncos’ offense is2, their defense is absolutely fantastic. Per the way my model evaluates defenses, it concludes they are the best defense in the NFL and Football Outsiders has them ranked 4th. Now that defense gets its shot at Sam Darnold. Call me crazy, but if something looks too easy, it usually is (see: Thursday night’s NE/Min over/under) so I think I am going to take a small shot here with the over as I would not be shocked at all if these teams try some wild crap or if we get a Def / ST TD. As for picking a side, I will not risk my hard-earned money on this garbage.
Game 10: Ravens @ Jaguars (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - could see a thunderstorm
Stats that might matter -
With Lamar at QB, the Ravens are 38-23-2 ATS in the 1H; and it feels like I have bet them each one of those 23 times it has lost.
The Jags are 1-5 in 1-score games this year
6 of the last 7 Ravens games have gone under
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Baltimore Ravens (-107)
My 2 cents - The Jaguars kicker killed our ticket 2 weeks ago and we should have covered vs the Chiefs, but the real miss was the fact that the coaches only handed Etienne the ball 11 times. Had they given him the ball more I think they are able to stay in that game. I am going to follow my model and take the Ravens and here is why (and no this is not scientific) - my model has them as the 4th best team and I believe they are going to make a run here and in 2-3 weeks we are going to see the NFL shows asking “Is Lamar in the MVP discussion?” and “Are the Ravens the 3rd contending team in the AFC with the Cheifs and Bills?” and for that to happen they need to lay the wood in Jacksonville.
Game 11: Chargers @ Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stat that might matter - As Cardinal Head Coach, Kliff Kingsbury has a .661 win percentage in the first 7 games of the season and a .323 winning percentage the rest of the way3
Titanic Model Output - 1u on LA Chargers -3 (-110)
My 2 cents - This will be one of the matchups I am most looking forward to this week as you have two coaches who have “specialties” but their teams are awful in those areas. Kliff has always had a moniker of an offensive genius but their offense is a mess and Staley has been viewed as the “next big name” in defense and their defense plays way worse than you’d expect with the players they have. As former NFL GM Michael Lombardi likes to say “these gurus have no ru”. Now, why is my model taking the Chargers? It is an indictment of the Cards more than it is a vote of confidence in the Chargers. My model has the Chargers as a middle-of-the-road team across all its analytics but has the Cards as 31st. When in doubt, follow the model, Chargers -3.
Come join us at Gamblers Paradise Discord!! It is a free discord where we chat all things gambling (some amazing World Cup discussions and my NBA model testing is being posted there daily) and we are watching games together! Not to mention I have been running a bunch of NFL-based Discord-exclusive giveaways.
Game 12: Raiders @ Seahawks (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Weather Report - rain/snow mix
Stat that might matter - After winning by 6 last week, the Raiders are now 1-6 in 1-score games
Titanic Model Output - 3u Seattle Seahawks -3 (-131) - I bought the half point
My 2 cents - I know a lot of folks are using their loss to the Bucs in Germany to throw dirt on the Seahawks, but if they kick an FG on 4th down or get the conversion and/or do not fumble the ball in the RedZone they cover and possibly win. As I mentioned above, also do not forget to take into account the field conditions that caused their D to struggle. The Seahawks go from struggling vs the Buccaneers to playing a terrible Raiders defense. How bad is that Raiders D and how does it affect this game? Football Outsiders rates the Raiders as the worst passing defense in the NFL and the Seahawks as the 4th best passing offense. I think the Seahawks are going to roll and I love my model going bold.
Game 13: Rams @ Cheifs (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Per the ActionNetwork, the Chiefs have won 25 straight games in November and December
The Cheifs are the 3rd-best offense in the NFL converting red-zone trips into TDs (72.1%), while the Rams are the 4th-best red-zone defense, allowing a TD 48.1% of the time
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I honestly do not know what to say about the Rams at this point. I told you I thought they might pack it in and it certainly is looking like it. Now on top of their terrible performance, both Stafford and Wolford are out. They will turn to Bryce Perkins and backup Case Cookus (I promise I didn’t make up that name, but, yeah, I don’t know who that is). Perkins should give them a little juice, but honestly, they are going to be lucky to not lose this game by 3 touchdowns. The only thing that really might save them is if KC sees the QBs and is disinterested. This is a LOT of points, so pass.
Game 14: Saints @ 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter - Per Iain MacMillan, the 49ers are 1st in the league in net yards per play, and the Saints are 7th
Titanic Model Output - 1u on New Orleans +9.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - One of the picks I was worried about last week was the Saints as they have vacillated between abysmal and marginally competent all year, but their defense was able to rock a terrible Rams team. One of the stats that really came to bear last week was the fact that while the Saints do not get a ton of pressure, but, when they do, they get home to the QB as they were able to get 4 sacks and cause 2 picks. Speaking of teams that look good sometimes and awful others, the Saints are taking on a 49ers team that crushed the Cards last week. I know my model likes the Saints and I think I am okay following it because this seems like a place where folks are still pissing on the Saints and then saw when the 49ers did in primetime and overrating them.
Game 15: Packers @ Eagles (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Weather Report - windy with possible rain
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Philly -6.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - During Week 8 I wrote, “While my model has the Eagles as the 2nd best team in the NFL, one thing we need to keep our eyes on is their ability to make explosive plays. If we start to see them reduced that will be a canary in the coal mine that defenses are starting to figure out the scheme”. We are starting to see an inability to generate big plays, but that was against a pretty good Colts D that has a scheme that was designed to cause them problems and I think this week is different. Here is why - Football Outsiders rates the Packers as the 4th worst rushing defense in the NFL and the Eagles as the 2nd best rush offense. I like that this dropped under 7, I am laying the points.
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All The Plays
Model Plays:
3u play
Seahawks -3
2u play
Patriots +2.5 - Loss
1u plays
Browns +3
Titans +3
Jets -5.5
Saints +9.5
Eagles -6.5
0.5u plays
Giants +9.5 - Win
Ravens -3.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Win - 1.2u 6pt teaser -120 on SF -2 / Dallas -2
Win - 1u 7pt teaser +124 on Dal -2.5 / Bills -2.5 / NE +9.5 <- My Thanksgiving Day Teaser
Win - 0.5u on DAL / NYG 1H under 21.5 (-103)
Loss - 0.5u on NYG under 17.5 Team Total (-145)
Loss - 0.25u on NE / Min 1H under 21 (-120)
Loss - 0.25u on NE / Min under 42.5 (-108)
Pending - 0.6u 6pt teaser -120 on Patriots +8.5 (win) / Eagles -1
Pending - 0.6u 6pt teaser -120 on Panthers +8 / Titans +8
1.15u 6pt teaser -115 on Steelers +8.5 / Eagles -0.5
0.55u 6pt teaser -110 on Saints +15.5 / Texans +20
0.5u 6pt teaser +151 on Panthers +7.5 / Steelers +8.5 / Jets pk
1u parlay +161 on Ravens 1H -165 / Chargers 1H -160
0.5u parlay +395 on Titans +125 / Steelers +120
0.5u on Bears TT under 16.5 (-120)
0.5u on TB/ Cle over 42 (-110)
0.25u on Car / Den over 36 (-110)
0.25u on NO/ SF over 43 (-110)
Player Props -
I am not seeing prop markets having a lot of options so I will send a props update tomorrow or Sunday morning.Edit note: as of Saturday 2:15 pm ET props have been added.Win - 0.5u on Kirk Cousins to throw a pick (+100)
Win - 0.25u on Dalton Schultz TD (+200)
Loss - 0.25u on Stefon Diggs over 89.5 yards receiving (-115)
0.25u on Jaylen Waddle to score a TD +130
0.25u on Marcus Mariotta to throw an INT +114
0.25u on Car / Den on either D / ST to score a TD +220
0.25u on Tyler Lockett over 63.5 receiving yards -115
0.5u on CMC under 96.5 rushing/receiving yards -115
Loss - 0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week #2 - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
Now I know Michael Lombardi killed Saleh for punting the ball down the middle of the field and I will take his word for it as I would personally think that is a little MMQB for me
They hired Nathaniel Hackett to be their head coach. They no longer let him handle in-game strategy and now he doesn’t call plays….What exactly does he do? Look, I try my best not to be excited when someone is going to get fired even if it proves me right but is there any NFL HC that is more out of their depth than this guy?
I know it is fashionable to also bring up that this stat is true for his Texas Tech days as well (.643 vs .242), and while I think he is an awful coach, but I do not think that is fair. Most major college football teams play an absolute cream puff of a non-conference schedule early in the calendar so the fact his record is worse could be because his team played harder opponents once they got to conference play.