I have been playing golf for much of my life. I am not great at the sport, but one of the things I have always known is that my long irons tend to leak off to the right. Not a ton, but just enough to have me in the rough a consistent amount if I am using them off the tee. You might think “well just aim to the left and you will hit the ball dead straight”, but, as any golfer will tell you, if you start aiming somewhere other than straight ahead you are almost assured of either hitting it straight (aka no leak) or (even worse) hooking the crap out of it. When I am playing consistently, the thing I have to do is start my clubface a little more closed than normal and that fixes it right up.
Okay, what does this have to do with gambling? Similar to the NFL and golf, self-scouting is vitally important in gambling. You have to make sure you do not overcorrect or adjust in a way that could end up with even more deleterious results than would have originally been experienced.
So let’s talk about some tweaks I am making this week:
The Model - I always make small adjustments throughout the season (weighting of the prior season’s stats, the weighting of the strength of schedule, etc.), and this week is no different where I have tightened up some of the parameters.
Props - These have not gone well and I have been extending too far. Going forward these are going to be a bit more targeted with lower risk with maybe one higher risk one like this past week.
Totals - These have not been going well so these will be derisked until I can find a rhythm and build more of a sample.
Teasers / Parlays - While these have not performed I believe I have found a couple of trends within my picks that I think have cost us so let’s see if we can get them back on track.
Let’s get this ball rolling in the right direction this week!
This week we have 2 teams that have byes, with the Cheifs and Chargers getting a week off.
Week 8
Some overall trends:
Per ESPN, Underdogs are 59-44-3 ATS (now 59-45-3 after TNF)
Per ESPN, Unders are 63-44-1 (now 63-45-1 after TNF)
Per Gilles Gallant, TD’s through week 7:
2020 - 660
2021 - 611
2022 - 517
Favorites of 7 or more are 8-16 ATS this seaon
Let’s get to the games:
Game 1: Ravens @ Buccaneers (Thursday 8:15 pm) - we finally won a game!!!!!
Game 2: Broncos @ Jaguars (Sunday 9:30 am) -
Line movement - Opened Denver +4.5, now +2.5
Stat that might matter -
This game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London1 and broadcast on ESPN+ in the US
Jags have played in five 1-score games and have lost all of them; these things tend to progress/regress to .500
In 6 of the 7 Broncos games, both teams failed to reach 20 points
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Jacksonville -2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Two talented teams that make shitty decisions each week and make amazingly costly mistakes. Look at how good the Jags are when looking at advanced stats but are still somehow 2-5. I am just not sure how they can keep having bad turnovers and coaching decisions each week. That said, is Russell Wilson the least likable person in football? I have said it for a while, but he is a phony and his teammates hate him because they know it. He is also hurt and going to force his way onto the field. Pair that with the fact that Jags are used to going to London so they will be better prepared for the time change/media commitments so give me the Jags.
Game 3: Panthers @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Line movement - Opened Panthers +6.5, now +4
Stat that might matter - The winner of this game will be in 1st in the NFC South (read that again haha)
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Falcons -4 (-110)
My 2 cents - This just screams overreaction. The Panthers are terrible, but somehow they beat the crap out of the Bucs. PJ Walker and that offense ran the ball down the throats of the Bucs and he threw the ball pretty well. It was really impressive, but I am going to have to see it again to believe it. The Falcons, on the other hand, are beat up in their secondary and just got the shit beat out of them by the Bengals so I think folks are keeping that top of mind. Would I be shocked if the Panthers won? No, but a ton of people suddenly have faith in this crappy Pnahters team and I trust my model here, but I won’t be using this pick elsewhere.
Game 4: Bears @ Cowboys (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Cowboys are the only team to not give up a 1st quarter TD
Per Bobby Belt, the Cowboys are allowing 14.9 points per game. That's the best in the NFC and 2nd in the NFL behind the Bills (13.5 PPG).
My sources tell me Zeke Elliot has a hyper-extended knee sprain, I expect him to miss this week and back after the bye.
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - By every available metric, the Cowboys’ D is excellent. They absolutely crushed the Lions. I think a conversation (and I was having it with Raheem Palmer on Twitter) is about whether we should be betting on the Cowboys’ NFC (+800) and SB odds (+2000). They have a running game, defense, and special teams that work well in the postseason and a QB that can likely get it done. I might be a homer but I’m grabbing 0.25u on the SB odds (as we already have NFC at 10-1). The Bears’ rushing attack could give the Cowboys issues as that is clearly where they have some problems, but Michael Lombardi spent the first 7 min of yesterday’s podcast breaking down the Bears’ single wing and why the Cowboys’ fast d would be able to stop them. Really, to me, the question is can the Cowboys’ offense find a groove vs Chicago before their bye week? I think yes and will use them in exotics as 10 is a lot of points.
Game 5: Dolphins @ Lions (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
In the 2nd half, the Lions had 6 possessions against the Cowboys which resulted in 5 turnovers and 1 punt
Lions play more man coverage (44%) than any other team in the NFL
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - So what is the excuse for Tua now? He is not good. Sorry, it’s true. As Ari Meirov pointed out, Tua tried to throw 4 picks and included a video of 3 of the drops. Now he gets to go against this absolute garbage Lions team. I was really not sure which way I wanted to go and was leaning on the Lions but ultimately and I am thrilled my model says pass. I know this is a relatively high line, but I like the over here.
Game 6: Cardinals @ Vikings (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Cardinals have been outscored 48-6 in the first quarter
Per Joe Osborne, Kliff is 13-3-2 ATS as a road underdog
Arizona has 10 days of rest, but Vikings are coming off the bye
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Minnesota -3.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Before the season I took Minnesota to win their division and a small ticket on them to win the NFC. I watch a lot of football on the weekend and then do 3-4 games of tape study during the week. I do not think this Vikings team is all that good, but it seems like EVERYONE is of that opinion, should I zag? I look at my model and it has them as just above average in pretty much everything they do. For this week, the big thing here is my model thinks Arizona is awful and the 30th-ranked team in the NFL, mostly because their defense is terrible. Also, I think this whole Kyler / Kliff thing is really strange. I am not at all fan of Kliff, but I do not know how he deal’s with Kylers body language and apathy; I would strangle him. I am trepidatiously following my model and zagging against everyone (the money is pouring in on the Cards and taking the Vikings, though I prefer to take them in the 1st Q or 1st H.
Game 7: Raiders @ Saints (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Saints are 1-5-1 ATS
All 4 of the Raiders’ losses are by 6 or fewer points
Saints are -10 in turnovers, but if you take into account missed kicks (which my model does) it is really -13
Titanic Model Output - 1u on New Orleans +1.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - I have said it all year - when the Raiders commit to running with Josh Jacobs their offense is vastly different than when they just try to wing it around. That said, are we sure they are going to do it? I am not. I really am not sure what Josh McDaniels is doing sometimes. They travel to New Orleans, which has been a darling of me, my model, and some of the pros I talk to and all of us are taking a bath so far. I love that the Saints get a mini-bye going into this game and the fact that my model thinks the Saints should be favored here. I agree with the model, but I am warning Dennis Allen this might be my last time supporting him and his team. I also really like the over here
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Game 8: Patriots @ Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Jets lost RB Breece Hall and OL Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season
The Jets have lost 12 straight vs the Patriots
Titanic Model Output - 1u on NY Jets +2.5 (+100)
My 2 cents - The Jets won a game last week where they basically just knew the awful Broncos could do nothing against them with Rypien at QB. They seem to be doing things with smoke and mirrors and while I like that they picked up Robinson to replace Hall the AVT injury is massive and their OL is going to be an issue. I think after getting embarrassed I think the Pats might play well, but I like home dogs in divisional matchups, especially with a low total so I am going with my numbers, the Jets are the pick. Note that Bill Simmons went all in on the Pats -2.5 in his million dollar picks this week; do with that what you will.
Game 9: Steelers @ Eagles (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Last time out, they put the Cowboys to bed, controlling the ball for 11min of the 4th Q.
2nd in net yards per play (Eagles) vs 2nd worst in net yards per play (Steelers)
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Philadelphia -10.5 (-107)
My 2 cents - Look I am a huge fan of Mike Tomlin and going against his teams scares me to death but their team sucks. While my model has the Eagles as the 2nd best team in the NFL, one thing we need to keep our eyes on is their ability to make explosive plays. If we start to see them reduced that will be a canary in the coal mine that defenses are starting to figure out the scheme. With the Eagles coming off the bye, I expect them to be well-rested and to absolutely smash an overmatched Steelers team.
Game 10: Titans @ Texans (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Stat that might matter - The Titans are last in the NFL in net yards per play
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I know folks like the Titans, but they beat a crappy Colts team and I am really unimpressed by them. I think the Titans are overrated (including by my model) and while I think they have a coaching advantage I think he is holding this together with bubble gum and duct tape. On top of that, Tannehill is banged up with an injured ankle, they are without Burks and they have a ton of guys who did not practice yet so if they play they will be comprimised. I would think the Texans just stack the box. Give me the Texans.
Game 11: Washington @ Colts (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Colts have the most drives of 10 plays or more with 17; they have resulted in only 4 TDs
The Colts have trailed at halftime in their last 9 games
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Washington +3 (-115)
My 2 cents - Well I for one bought into Matt Ryan and thought that with the running game and OL that the Colts could give him that they would have a successful year. In the words of CJ Cregg “ Boy are you stupid”. Their OL has been a disaster and his arm strength has fallen off faster than I thought so all this has left them benching Ryan for Sam Ehllinger. The Colts can’t find an explosive play with a map and a compass; they have the most drives of 10 plays or more with 17, resulting in only 4 TDs. I know there is tons of talk that they now have a more mobile QB to help the OL that has given up the 2nd most sacks in the league, but Sam is not big enough and I wonder how long he can stay healthy. Washington looked good last week, but is that more them being good or the Packers being bad? The Washington DL can rush the passer and I like Heineken at QB.
Game 12: 49ers @ Rams (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Joe Osborne, the under is 17-5 in Rams’ home games in SoFi; the last 4 haven’t reached 35
Since 2001, The 49ers have converted 25 of 49 3rd downs vs the Rams
Titanic Model Output - 1u on San Fran -1 (-115)
My 2 cents - The Rams’ offense has been atrocious. They can’t protect and they are 25th in the league in points per play. While they are getting their center back I think they are going to struggle here. I for the life of me do not know what DeMeco Ryans was doing with his defense last week. We all know that when you play the Cheifs you have to play man-to-man coverage as their weapons are not good enough to challenge you but instead he sits in that silly zone all day and just got picked apart. I know it’s the “public” play but I think the 49ers get this done.
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Game 13: Giants @ Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Weather Report - There should be a fair bit of rain during this game
Stat that might matter -
Giants are 4th in the league in the percentage of TD’s given up in the RedZone; Seahawks are 2nd worst in offensive TD percentage in the RedZone
The Giants are 6th league in 3rd down defense
Titanic Model Output - 1u on NY Giants +3 (-110)
My 2 cents - This is the only game with 2 over .500 teams. These are two of the most surprising teams of the year and they both continue to get things done in different ways, but both are extremely well-coached. The Giants team does not seem to play well, but their coaching allows them to hang around and keep winning these games. Just look at those stats above and it’s easy to see their D steps up when it matters most. Pete Carroll has Geno playing amazingly well and their D is getting better by the week but I think this comes down to the 4th quarter and while I want to bet on the Giants I am rather worried how much everyone LOVE this team. I am going to follow the model as 1u is not a lot of risk, but will NOT be using them elsewhere.
Game 14: Packers @ Bills (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
In their last 8 games, the Packers have averaged 6.125 points in the seconds half of their games
Packers are 4 for their last 22 thrid-downs and didn’t convert a third down last week which, per the broadcast, was the first time since 1999 (370 games)
Rodgers has NEVER been a double-digit underdog
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Green Bay +11 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Bills are a monster team (my model has them as the clear #1 team) and I think if they stay healthy they should waltz right to the AFC Championship. The Packers look broken but do not underestimate the effect of having Bakhtiari scratching just 90 min before the game. The Packers have looked awful, but if they get blown out they could pack it up for the seasons so my model is leaning towards taking them and I guess I will back Rodgers.
All The Plays
Model Plays:
1u plays
Ravens -1.5 - win
Jaguars -2.5
Falcons -4
Vikings -3.5
Saints +1.5
Jets +2.5
Eagles -10.5
Washington +3
49ers -1
Giants +3
0.5u plays
Packers +11
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Loss - 0.6 on Ravens 1H -120
Pending - 0.575u 6pt teaser -115 on Texans +8 / Washington +9
0.575u 6pt teaser -115 on Texans +8.5 / Washington +92
1.2u on Houston Texans +3 (-120)
1.1u on Eagles 1H -6.5 (-110)
0.5u on Vikings Q1 -0.5 (+100)
0.5u Washington money line 1H +125
0.5u on Saints / LV Over 50 (-105)
0.5u on Mia / Det Over 51.5 (-110)
0.25u on Hou/Ten 1H Under 20 (-115)
0.25u on Steelers TT under 16.5 (-125)
1u parlay +105 on Vikings 1H -175 / Eagles 1H -330
0.5u parlay +418 on Washington +130 / Texans +125
0.25u parlay +429 on Jets +125 / Giants +135
Player Props3
Win - 0.25u on Gus Edwards over 44.5 rushing yards -120
0.25u Waddle over 64.5 receiving yards -115
0.25u on Josh Jacobs over 85.5 yards -115
0.25u on over 5.5 sacks in the IND/ WAS game -115
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Survivor Thoughts
Sadly I crashed out of these contests so I will no longer have this section after this week.
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
Note that the Jaguars traditionally do not play at Tottenham Hotspurs’ stadium as the owner of the Jags also owns London soccer club Fulham FC so he doesn’t want his NFL team to help one of his Premier League rivals.
This is less about the extra half point, but more about what I think about these teams, who they are playing, and what I am hearing from people I trust. Also, I am going to be picking my spots a bit more on teasers so okay taking a little more risk.
Some other props I like: Kyle Pitts ATD, Eagles D/ST ATD, Derrick Henry under 98.5 rushing yards,