This newsletter ran long enough so I am going to keep my gambling strategy discussion for next week.
Week 13
Things of note this week:
This week we have 2 teams (Cardinals and Panthers) getting a week off
Per VSIN, through Week 12:
Favorites are 109-66-1 SU w/ 4 PKs, but ‘dogs are 95-75-6 ATS
Home teams are 96-77-1 SU w/ 6 neutral-site games but are only 86-82-6 ATS
Unders are 100-78-2 & primetime Unders are 19-17-1
If the playoffs started today, the only NFC East or AFC East team that would miss the playoffs is the Patriots and they are in the 8th slot in the AFC
Per Sam Farmer, since the 2-point conversion was implemented in 1994, Week 12 was the first week with multiple games (Jaguars, Chargers) decided by game-winning points that came on two-point conversions in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter
Through Week 12, 106 games have been decided by 1 score, the 106 is the most since 1989; last year there were 85
Through Week 12, 39 teams have won after trailing going into the 4th quarter, the most since 2011
Per Joe Osborne, you'd be 22-0 if you teased every Broncos and Rams opponent by 6 points
The games:
Game 1: Bills @ Patriots (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Game 2: Steelers @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter - The Falcons’ offense averages 6 points less on the road
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Atlanta +1 (-115)
My 2 cents - The Falcons were the sharps’ darling last week and they found a way to lose that game. I wonder if they will be back on them this week as I think they really should win this game. Here is the thing, the Falcons should have won that game last week vs Washington and only didn’t because of red zone failures. On the flip side, you have a Steelers team that blew out a shitty Colts team but do not forget that with 4:29 left in the 3rd quarter down 16-10 with first a goal from the 1 the Colts fumbled the ball away. If they punch that in, this game is going to look very different as the next possession Steelers went 3 and out, and then Colts scored a TD. This is the epitome of two teams where folks didn’t watch the games and only saw the results so one is very overvalued. Give me the Falcons.
Game 3: Packers @ Bears (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - Low 40’s
Stat that might matter -
Per Warren Sharp, the Eagles were the first team to run for over 300 yards vs the Green Bay Packers since 1978
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Chicago Bears +3.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Last week I tried to warn everyone that the Eagles’ rush attack was going to be a real problem for the Packers’ poor rush defense. Well, this week their job does not get much easier as they are going to face a Bears offense that gets Justin Fields back. Sure, I think the Bears D is not very good, but I think the Packers are not going to be able to stop the Bears’ offense. The Packers lack toughness and they are in for a long afternoon. Give me these points.
Game 4: Jaguars @ Lions (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Jags are 2-5 in 1-score games this year
The Lions are the 3rd best team in the red zone, scoring a TD 71.4% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Jacksonville pk (-110)
My 2 cents - I have been betting on Jacksonville all season and with some pretty mixed results as it seems that every time I look for them to have a big performance so it makes sense that last week when I thought they would struggle vs the Ravens they have an amazing comeback. They take on a Lions team with some good fights, but I think they will be outclassed here. I am going with my model.
Game 5: Jets @ Vikings (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures Check-in - The next Vikings win cashes our over 9.5 wins ticket and we could get to cash out win the division ticket this week
Stat that might matter -
Vikings are 8-0 in 1-score games
The Jets have normal rest, but the Vikings have the mini-bye
Titanic Model Output - 2u on NY Jets +3 (-113)
My 2 cents - The Jets absolutely demolished the Bears last week and it was really their offense that did it as their D did not show up until the 2nd half. I watched the game live (along with a bunch of other games), but this was one of the ones I went back and rewatched and it is really stark to see how much better that offense is with White Lotus showrunner Mike White at the helm. I agree with Louis Riddick’s assessment and think there is really no way they can take him out of the lineup until he gets hurt or the wheels fall off the bus. This line is fishy to me as I originally thought it would be like Vikings -6, but then I looked at my model and it loves the Jets because of their defense (it ranks them 4th; so does FO). I also think their DL is going to replicate what Dallas did to this Vikings OL. I may regret this but J-E-T-S- JETS JETS JETS!
Game 6: Washington @ Giants (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
I am not sure I have seen this before, but Washington has the Giants in back-to-back games with only a bye in between
Daniel Jones is 4-1 vs Washington and he averages 7.8 yards per carry
Per Joe Osborne, 18 of the last 22 matchups between the Commanders and Giants in New York have gone under with 19 of them failing to cross 40 points
Titanic Model Output - 1u on NYG +2.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - It seems that these two teams have had mirror-image seasons- playing good defense (especially run defense) and grinding out wins against lesser teams but losing a bunch when their schedule gets harder. The bad news for the Giants is that they are in the midst of the hard part of their schedule. That said, this just feels like a game they are going to win (and then lose the next few haha). I can’t explain it but when I saw the line for this game my instant reaction was “I kinda like the G-men here” as this just seems like a kitchen sink game for the Giants and my model likes them too! My model thinks this should be Giants -1 and when teams are pretty much the same I like to take the points so give’em to me!
Game 7: Titans @ Eagles (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Last week Jalen Hurst because the first QB in NFL history to have 125+ passing yards and 125+ rushing yards in a half
The Titans are averaging 6.5 points per game in the 2nd half, second-worst in the NFL
The Eagles are 3rd in the league on 3rd down, converting 47.2% of the time, but the Titans are the best 3rd down defense, allowing a conversation only 30.7% of the time
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I loved the Titans last week and we had some really good CLV, but none of that helped as the Bengals flipped the script on the Titans. Look, I know Tannehill still looks hurt, but they really should have been able to win that game so credit to the Bengals. Now, this week they are facing an Eagles team that ran up the score and ran the ball all over the Packers. While the Eagles have, per Football Outsiders, the best rushing offense in the NFL they will not find the amount of joy they did last week as I expect Vrabel’s defense (#1 vs the rush) to stop the run while also pass rushing Hurts intelligently by keeping him in the well. I like the Titans 1H and ML here.
Game 8: Broncos @ Ravens (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - should be cool
Stat that might matter -
With Lamar at QB, the Ravens are 38-24-2 ATS in the 1H; and it feels like I have bet them each one of those 24 times it has lost
In all 4 Ravens losses, they have led by at least 9 points in 4th quarter
Per Mike Sando, since 2000, only the Akili Smith-led Bengals have had more starts in the first 12 weeks with less than 17 points than Russell Wilson this year. If the Broncos scored 18 points in the regulation of every game they would be 9-2
Per Joe Osborne, the Broncos are an incredible 10-1 to the UNDER this season
The Broncos are 3rd-worst in the league on 3rd down, converting 28.2% of the time, but the Ravens are the 2nd-best 3rd down defense, allowing a conversation only 32.6% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Baltimore -8.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Ravens have to be looking back at that decision to fire Wink Martindale and thinking to themselves that it was a huge mistake as the Ravens’ defenses’ inability to stop anyone, especially late, has cost them in all 4 of their losses. Luckily for them, they get the Broncos’ abysmal offense coming to town; it appears the Broncos’ D has had enough of Russ. The Broncos got donkey whipped by a really shitty Panthers team last week so we will see if they have anything this week against a defense that has struggled. Honestly, this entire team looks checked out. One thing to keep a keen eye on is the fact that, per Football Outsiders, Baltimore has the best special teams unit in the NFL and the Broncos have the absolute worst. While I know this is the super public play and that scares me, I am laying the points but likely not to add too much else.
NBA Picks
For those who do not know, I put out NBA picks daily once I feel like my model has compiled enough data to have some consistent wins. Well, today is that day!!! My first set ofpicks went out this morning. Here is a link. Make sure you check those out and sign up to get them emailed to you daily
Game 9: Browns @ Texans (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Deshaun Cosby will start his first game this season
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Okay, let me start with my favorite question about Deshaun Cosby’s move to the Browns…..Why is EVERYONE so sure he is going to be good after last playing on January 3rd, 2021? Further to that point, the Texans went 4-12 that year. Sooooo maybe let’s all take a deep breath before we fit him into a yellow jacket. Look I am really happy my model is passing here because I really do not want to be on this game. The Browns’ offense has been fine (4th by DVOA standards), but it is their D that has been abysmal (29th by DVOA), and unless Deshaun is going to message that defensive game plan I do not see that getting better. Pass.
Game 10: Seahawks @ Rams (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Seattle -7 (-110)
My 2 cents - This Rams offense is absolutely putrid and will now miss Allen Robinson for the remainder of the year. I have been saying for a couple of weeks that I think McVay is going to pack it up and Mike Sando covered it really well this week. One thing to keep a keen eye on is the fact that, per Football Outsiders, Seattle has the 5th best special teams unit in the NFL and the Rams have the 4th-worst. I was going to pass but I like that this is not much risk.
Game 11: Dolphins @ 49ers (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Weather Report - should see some rain
Stat that might matter -
Kyle Shanahan is 19-28-1 as a favorite, but 26-18 as a ‘dog
The 49ers have not given up a single point in the 2nd half in their last 3 games
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Mike McDaniels Bowl! Do not underestimate the amazing relationship that exists between Mike McDaniels and that 49ers team (as covered by Good Morning Football), he was not only their OC before taking the Miami job but he basically worked with Kyle Shanahan everywhere he went (Washington, Atlanta, Cleveland, etc.) and not only has he worked with DeMeco Ryans, he also coached on a team he was on! Welker and Embry are also former 49ers coaches, a ton of former players are in Miami too. Look this is a big game for me personally as I have been anti-dolphins and Tua all year and pro the 49ers so while my model says pass I like San Fran here and will be using them below.
Game 12: Chiefs @ Bengals (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Bengals opened the season 0-2 against the spread with five straight unders and have been 8-1 ATS and 4-1-1 to overs since
The Chiefs have won 26 straight games in November and December
KC is 42-5 when leading at half
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Cinci +2 (-105)
My 2 cents - I have been saying for a bit that I think the Bengals are legit and dangerous but their schedule is demanding, but one of the things I did not expect is how good their defense has been, especially in the second halves of games where they are only giving up about 7 points per game. I wonder if this game comes down to a red zone battle as Cicni is the 2nd best red zone team, converting TD 71.4% of the time, versus a Cheifs D that is the worst red zone team in the NFL giving up a TD 70.6% of the time. I am going with the Bengals and I will tell you right now that at halftime of this game I will be betting 0.5u on KC 2H TT under. I think at the end of Sunday we will be discussing how it is a 3 team race in the AFC.
Game 13: Chargers @ Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Sam Farmer, Justin Herbert has 16 career games with at least 3 TS passes and surpassed Patrick Mahomes (15 games) for the second-most such games by a player in his first three seasons in NFL history. Only Dan Marino (18) had more
After winning by 6 the last weeks in a row, the Raiders are now 2-6 in 1-score games
The Chargers are now an astounding 4-2 in games where they have trailed by 10+ points
Titanic Model Output - 1u on LAC +1 (-110)
My 2 cents - I likely sound like a broken record, but Josh Jacobs is who I thought he was. This Raiders team is so much better when they pound the rock with him. He is a HUGE difference-maker for them and it remains shocking to me that they have not done it more this year. Now, will they be able to run on the Chargers? I would think they would, but doesn’t that seem too obvious? It strikes me that my model likes the Chargers here so for me this is a pass.
Game 14: Colts @ Cowboys (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Matt Owen, the Cowboys have been flagged the 2nd most (83 flags) in the NFL this year, including the 3rd most presnap penalties
Per Michael Gehlken, the Cowboys have not allowed a 1st quarter TD this season
Dallas has a mini-bye 10 days of rest, but the Colts are coming off a rough MNF game vs the Steelers
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Dallas -10 (-114)
My 2 cents - I am pretty open about my Cowboys fandom and the fact I was using Cowboys in teasers but the model showed Giants value should have told you all you needed to know. The Cowboys are uber-talented but sloppy1 as hell and I am not at all shocked that the 3rd game in 12 days was a super sloppy one. They are not going to get better with these penalties. It has been going on for years. Now, you can say what you want about Mike McCarthy2, but, as Warren Sharp detailed well, the end of the game sequence by the Colts on Monday night was SHOCKING. We all know the Cowboys struggle to stop the run, but, per Football Outsiders, Indy has the worst rushing offense in the NFL. I think Dallas is going to be able to take advantage of the twist fronts and overloads to keep up their amazing scoring average (38.8 ppg since Dak came back) to throw all over the Colts. Give me the ‘boys big.
Game 15: Saints @ Buccaneers (Monday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Pam Maldonado, the Saints are 0-5 ATS on the road; the Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS at home.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on New Orleans +4 (-111)
My 2 cents - The Bucs have had OL issues all season and they are now without Triston Wirfs. I am really just not sure how they are going to be able to block for Brady at all and now that Fournette is back they seem to like to rely on him even though White is by far the better back. I know the Saints looked ugly last week vs San Fran, but I really like them as a bounceback. Give me the Saints.
Free giveaways on Discord!
As I have said on Twitter, all throughout the week/weekend I run giveaways that are exclusive to discord. Last weekend, for example, I gave away over $450 in crypto on the Gamblers Paradise Discord!! All you have to do is join our free discord and react to the pick in the channel (zero risk to you!)!!
All The Plays
Model Plays:
2u plays
Falcons +1
Jets +3
Cowboys -10
1u plays
Bears +3.5
Giants +2.5
Ravens -8.5
Chargers +1
Saints +4
0.5u plays
Jaguars pk
Seahawks -7
Bengals +2
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 0.6u 6pt teaser -120 on Steelers +8.5 (win) / Ravens -2
1.1u 6pt teaser -110 on Titans +10.5 / Saints +10
1u 7pt teaser +120 on Jags +7 / Bengals +9 / Jets +10
0.5u 6.5pt teasers +135 on NYG +9 / Falcons +8.5 / Bengals +8.5
1.4u on San Fran -3 (-140)
0.5u on Titans 1H +3 (-105)
0.25u on Cowboys -2.5 3rd quarter (-120)
0.5u on NO / TB under 40.5 (-110)
0.5u on KC/ Cin 1H over 26 (-110)
0.25u on NYG / WAS under 40 (-110)
2u parlay -132 on Dallas 1H -340 / Ravens 1H -280
0.5u parlay +250 on Jets +3 / Falcons +1
0.5u parlay +362 on Giants +115 / Bengals +115
0.25u Underdog Parlay +558 on Titans +180 / Jets +1353
Player Props4
0.5u on Amari Cooper over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
0.5u on Tua Tagovailoa to throw an INT (-110)
0.25u on Christian Kirk over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
0.25u on over 5.5 sacks in NYJ / Min (+110)
0.25u on Jalen Hurts to throw an INT (+110)
0.25u on Kenny Pickett to throw an INT (+115)
0.25u on Dak Prescott over 249.5 passing yards (-115)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I still believe they are built for a deep run and The Ringer’s Ben Solak had a great article on it
I personally think he is a fair bit better than most folks do.
Edit Note: The original post said Titans -180 and obviously the line is Titans +180 so that has been updated
Some other ones I might end up betting: Daniel Jones over 32.5 rushing yards (+110); AJ Brown over 72.5 receiving yards (-145); Joe Burrow to score a TD +475