Week 12 Recap
Well, that was quite a different result than we have been having so far this season. As I mentioned on Sunday night (MNF post) the week was really not a good week for the model. It ended up going 4-6 with a 5.2u loss and our overall results this week were not a bad -1.7u because my personal plays did really well.
What we see from this week is that a couple of bad big unit plays can cause havoc on results in a single week, but it is the grind on my exotics that can help augment those results. This week we saw the power of the teaser as they went 7-01 for a 5.5u profit, including my SUPER ugly Texans +20 and Saints +15.5 teaser, which means we now have a profit for teasers across the whole season!!! But parlays seem to still be a disaster area so as you saw last week, I started to tone those down a bit.
We close out November with a small profit. Not a big one, but certainly better than how October went. Let’s hope for a big December.
We had some future bets settle during Week 12 and thankfully all of them are in the win column for us:
Micah Parsons over 11.5 sacks - win
Brian Burns over 9 sacks - win
Broncos under 10 wins - win
Eagles over 9.5 wins - win
Going forward, if we are really close to having a future settle I will cover it in my pick for that week (see: Minnesota Vikings on Friday)
Thursday Night Football
This should be a pretty fun matchup
Game 1: Bills @ Patriots (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Line movement - This line opened at Pats +5 and bet down to +3.5
Weather Report - should be in the mid 20’s
Stat that might matter -
Per the 33rd Team, last week the Bills became the first team to have back-to-back come-from-behind victories at Ford Field since 2016
The Patriots have scored 1 TD in the first quarter this season (last week)
Both of these teams played on Thanksgiving so they both have normal rest
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The thing I have found most striking about the Patriots this season is that they are very un-Belichik-like as they seem to have special teams’ missteps and really stupid penalties way more frequently than they normally do. That cost them dearly in the Thanksgiving Day game vs the Vikings. On the other side, you have a Bills team that might have peaked too early as they have clearly been struggling and the Josh Allen turnover machine is really something they need to figure out. Ultimately my model says pass and I am going to as well, as I am just not sure if the Bills will be able to put up the points to cover this and I expect the Pats to try and shorten the game by feeding Rhamondre Stevenson so I am going 0.25u over 62.5 (-12) rushing yards.
We also have 2 pending going into next week too