Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment this week:
Back to bye weeks with Buffalo, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minnesota, NY Giants, and Baltimore taking the week off. This is the 2nd to last week of byes.
Per Dave Tuley, through Week 12:
Favorites are 119-56 SU and 92-75-8 ATS
Home teams are 99-76 SU and 83-84-8 ATS
Unders are 106-73-1 (59.2%) overall this season (best start in the Wild Card era)
Unders on Sunday & Monday Night Football are 23-3 this year & 49-17 the last two years
Unders in standalone games are 34-13 (72.3%) this year
Per Gilles Gallant, plus money INT props are now 68-66 +16.65u on the season after going 4-6 -1.6u in Week 12
Per Ian Rapport, the Eagles are the first team to have playoff-clinching scenarios this week
Some Week 12 / Week 13 / team specific notes1:
Per Dave Tuley, in week 12, favorites went 12-4 SU (12-4 ATS); Unders went 7-9
Per Joe Osborne, the Browns are the number 1 defense at home by yards per play and points allowed, but they are an entirely different defense on the road where they rank in the bottom half of the league
Per Ben Fawkes, the Eagles being a 2.5-point dog this week is the first time in at least 20 years that a 10-1 or better team has been a home 'dog in the regular season with its starting QB playing in the game, but that is likely because, as Aaron Schatz points out, they are statistically one of the worst 10-1 teams ever
Per the 33rd team, the Bills(6-6) are the only team since 2000 to outscore their opponents by 100+ points through 12 weeks and not have a winning record.
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
The games:
Thursday night - Well basically handicapped that exactly as it played out. We even had Dak scoring a TD, but sadly Terrence Steele got called for holding.
Gamblers Paradise Discord (50+units of profits!)
I know I talk a lot about my Discord, but let’s talk about something you are missing by not joining my Discord and that is actionable betting!
Each week, I post 3 bets (2 parlays and 1 teaser) that usually are about 3u of risk. I do one parlay on Saturday and on Sunday I post another parlay and a sweetheart teaser. If they win, I share half the profits with someone on the discord, but you do not have to be selected to make money!
You hear all the time teasers and parlays are not profitable (I got into a Twitter discussion about this even this last weekend). Well here are the results of these plays this season if you tailed them dollar-for-dollar:
That is right!! You are missing out on over 50u of profit!!! Now, unlike many Twitter folks, I won’t magically add these to my performance as these are 100% FREE for anyone on the discord and “unofficial plays”, but you are missing out!
Please note that these plays are not risking a ton as we have risked 38.7u across the whole season, but these plays have returned an astounding 91.3u!!
So yes, you really need to come to join the Discord for the fun, comradery, the giveaways (NCAAF bowl contest starting soon!), but also because you are leaving money in the book’s hand!
Other Plays
UPDATED 12/3 10:45AM ET!
Apologies for not being around much (on twitter or the discord) since Friday, but I have had the flu. I am still not feeling great, but wanted to make sure I got this out while I can
Other bets
Teasers
Pending - 0.5u 7pt teaser Cowboys -2 / Browns +10.5 / Dolphins -2 (+120)
1u 6pt teasers Commanders +16 / Saints +10 (-110)
1u 7pt teaser Colts-Titans o35 / Broncos-Texans o40 / Eagles-49ers o40 (+135)
0.5u 6pt teaser Saitns +10 / Browns +9.5 / Cheifs pk (+160)
Parlays
Pending - 1u parlay Dallas -450 / Houston Texans -180 (-111)
1u parlay KC -255 / Jaguars -470 (-146)
0.25u Colts -118 / Saints +175 / Browns +160 (+1221)
Props (0.25u each)
Bijon Robinson 59.5 over yards (-118)
Kenny Picket over 0.5 INTs (+109)
Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs (-113)
Michael Pittman Jr ATD (+170)
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I highly recommend giving all these accounts a follow as I just cherry-pick info, but they have tons of really great information