Hye guys, rushing this out as some of the news I had form sources is starting to leak out (jets/lions specifically) so that might mean an update coming later today or tomorrow.
Things of note this week:
Note that now that College Football is now in bowl season we will have Saturday games, starting with 3 this week1
Per Warren Sharp, the 45 wins this year by teams trailing thru 3 quarters is the most since 2011 and 2nd most since 1990
Per Rick Gosselin, the three longest sack streaks in the NFL all came to an end last Sunda when the 49ers (39 games), Buccaneers (34) and Cowboys (24) all failed to get to the quarterback
Advanced analytics, per Ben Baldwin, are showing us that there is a clear gap between the top 6 teams (Philly, KC, SF, Dallas, Buf, and Cinci) to the rest of the league….That said when you look at net yards per a play Cinci is replaced with Miami in that grouping and if you use betting lines, there is really only a top 5.
Per CBS Sports HQ (via Todd Fuhrman), through Week 14:
Home teams: 105-99-4
Underdogs: 110-93-4 ATS
Unders: 113-93-2 - highest rate since 1991
This week’s games:
Game 1: 49ers @ Seahawks (Thursday 8:15 pm) - Loss
Game 2: Colts @ Vikings (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update: There are a couple of scenarios that lock in our Vikings to win the NFC North title ticket
Stats that might matter -
Per Rick Hribar, Minnesota has now allowed opponents to score on 57.1% of their drives over their past five games, the highest rate in the league
Colts are 2-11 against the first half spread this season
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Minnesota -4 (-105)
My 2 cents - Look, I know the books keep screwing with the Vikings lines and we all think they are frauds, but I think if you look last week you are going to see that they actually had more or less the same stats as the Lions except for the fumble in the red zone which really cost them so yes, I am following my NFL model’s pick because I really just do not think the Colts can take advantage of the things the Vikings don’t do well (pass D is 27th in the NFL) as their offense sucks (worst by DVOA in the NFL).
Game 3: Ravens @ Browns (Saturday 4:30 pm)
Weather Report - cold, a little snow, windy
Stats that might matter -
Kevin Stefanski is 1-7 as a favorite in divisional matchups
Per Action Network, since 2017, the Ravens are 30-17-1 ATS (5-2 ATS this season) on the road
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Baltimore +3 (-120)
My 2 cents - Can someone please explain to me why the Browns were bet down from +6 to +3.5 last Sunday? I for the life of me do not understand who or why that got steamed liked that. I honestly don't get it. Cosby looks like a guy who hasn’t played in 2 years (check out these stats from Rich Hribar) and now their suspect defense has lost JOK. On the flip side, how impressive was that Ravens win? They just found a way to beat the Steelers (physically and on the scoreboard). The Ravens are actually good at stopping the run (7th best in the NFL) and I think Huntley will be back to play this game. Can someone explain to me why the Browns should be favored by an FG against really anyone? Give me the divisional dog.
Game 4: Dolphins @ Bills (Saturday 8:15 pm)
Weather Report - Lake effect snow is coming!
Stats that might matter -
Per Action Network, Miami home games are 5-1 to the under, road games are 5-2 to the over
The under is 9-2 in the Bills past 11 games
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I was wrong about Miami last week and based on my tape study I think what we are now seeing is teams adjusting to take away what Tua does well and try to make him beat you in the areas he is deficient. Last week I talked about make him move faster, but what the Chargers smartly did was the clogged up between the numbers. This forces Tua to throw the ball outside the numbers and you see his lack of arm talent really show up. This will be exacerbated this week given the Bills fast defense and the bad weather. I like the Miami TT under.
Game 5: Falcons @ Saints (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter - Per Action Network, Saints were on a bye last week. In Andy Dalton’s career, he is 9-18 SU and 12-15 ATS on extended res
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Falcons are moving on from Mariota and turning to the QB that I thought was the best one in last year’s draft. I would have done this earlier in the year, but I totally understand that their division has been so bad that they have still been competitive, and their bye week was absurdly late, but I wonder if this actually gives them a shot to win the division. My model has loved the Saints so much all year that frankly I am surprised they aren’t favored here. I am admitting my bias, but give me the Falcons and the points.
Game 6: Eagles @ Bears (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Weather Report - Breezy and COLD
Stats that might matter -
Jalen Hurts is 17-15-1 ATS in his career, but 6-11 on the road
The Bears are 3-10 against the first half spread this season
Per Football Outsiders, Philly has the 2nd best offense in the league, and they face a Bears team with the worst defense in the league
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Eagles last two weeks have been about as impressive as anything we have seen all season, but I think this game is going to be hard for them. When the Eagles started running off wins and were undefeated, I circled this as the game they would lose. I just think this is a bad matchup for them and they will be looking ahead to Dallas next week. I know my model like Philly but be VERY careful using this in teasers (though I expect everyone will use it) and if I was still alive in a survivor pool I would stay away from this game. If you want to bet this game I would take Eagles 1H as they seem to be throwing the ball early to build a lead and then running late to grind the clock out, but otherwise I am going to pass as I would not be shocked at all if you see a comeback late by the Bears.
Game 7: Lions @ Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stats that might matter -
Per Rick Hribar, since their bye week the Lions have allowed the most receptions (123) and yards (1,693) to opposing WRs to go along with 8 TD (22nd)
Per VSIN, Goff is 8-17 SU, but 17-8 ATS with Dan Campbell as HC
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Detroit +1.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - Detroit played a hell of a game last week, but honestly so did the Jets even though they lost. Detroit was able to stop the run and make big play after big play against the fraudulent Vikings team. We are seeing that when you give Goff time to set his feet and throw, he can be effective, but will he have that time and be able to make those types of big plays against this Jets D especially with how bad he is outside2? I think this game could be lower scoring than people anticipate, especially with the question marks for the Jets with health. Mike White took a beating last week and I have NO faith in Wilson (he is back at back-up) and doesn’t his promotion seem like he is going to play? But do you trust Goff against a good D? Because I do not think Mike White is going to play I am going with the model.
Gamblers Paradise Discord
I really hope you are coming to the Gamblers Paradise Discord where I gave out 4 same day props last week including this 25-1 winner and keep giving away hundreds of dollars when my discord exclusive parlays and teasers hit:
This is based off of a really interesting trend I have discovered, and it SHOULD be at play again this week so make sure you do not miss out
Game 8: Steelers @ Panthers (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Carolina -2.5 (-125)
My 2 cents - This might be a brutally physical game as both teams like to bully opponents. The Panthers absolutely manhandled the Seahawks last week and since CMC left, they have become a really physically tough team. They really might make a run at the NFC South divisional title3. If this game is going to come down to a defense making a play, for minimal risk, I like the Panthers ability to do that more here as Pickett is hurt and Mitch threw 3 picks inside the Ravens half last week.
Game 9: Cowboys @ Jaguars (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stats that might matter -
Per VSIN, Trevor Lawrence is 0-9 SU and ATS against NFC teams
Per Sharp Football Analysis, Dallas scores TD’s on 29.1% of their redzone plays (best in the leagues), while the Jags allow a TD on 24.6% of their redzone defensive plays, 30th in the league
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dallas -4 (-109)
My 2 cents - If you asked me 3 weeks ago, I would have told you I thought this stretch of games for the Cowboys would be blow out wins vs the Colts and Texans and then a stupefying loss to the Jaguars. That just seemed very Dallas. Well, the stupidity came a week earlier than anticipated, but at least they didn’t lose the game and that is something to celebrate. I am starting to get concerned about the Cowboys’ injuries, especially losing Jonathan Hankins who has been a revelation at run stopping DT especially facing Etienne. Jags have been my bogey team as I just seem to miss on them each week, but I did tell you last week they would be able to throw on the Titans, but this Dallas D presents a much tougher test. While Dallas’ running game has been unreal, look for Dallas to throw the ball as the Jags pass D (30th by DVOA) is rather suspect. I love my Cowboys here to clinch a playoff spot in a high scoring match-up (at least early). I am also liking how Dallas has been playing in these 2nd halves so I am going to bet their spread for 0.5u when it comes up.
Game 10: Chiefs @ Texans (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update: There are a number of scenarios that lock in our KC to win the AFC West title ticket
Stat that might matter - Since Dec 2020, the Texans are 1-22 SU against non-divisional opponents
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I know I lost my KC bet last week but I should have won as they just stopped playing at some point. This week they are playing a Texans team that had a really interesting game plan vs the Cowboys last week. They had that dual QB strategy which caught Dallas entirely off guard. I am good following my model and passing here.
Game 11: Cardinals @ Broncos (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stats that might matter -
In his career, Colt McCoy is 11-24 SU and 12-22-1 ATS
The Broncos have the 3rd-best pass defense in the league
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Denver -3 (-110)
My 2 cents - This is two teams who will likely be without their highly overrated and overpaid QBs; Kyler tore his ACL and Wilson got KO’d last week. The Cards turmoil also continued with their GM stepping away. It feels like this team is going to blow it up this offseason. I think the big difference here is going to be the Broncos D (5th by DVOA) so I will go with my model, but I do not feel great about it.
Free College Football Bowl Picks Pool - STARTS TODAY
I like to try to come up with fun ways to engage with folks so, if you are interested in this college bowl season, I am running an entirely free-to-enter college football bowl picks pool where you all will be picking each game against the spread. There will be monetary prizes for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and last places.
Game 12: Patriots @ Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stats that might matter -
Per Frankie Taddeo, Josh McDaniels is 16-24 .400 NFL record; Adam Gase 32-48 .400 NFL record
Per Warren Sharp, the Raiders have lost 4 games after leading by 13+ points, which ties an NFL record
Per Action Network, Derek Carr is 15-8-1 ATS on extended rest in his career, including 8-4 ATS at home in that spot
Titanic Model Output - 1u on New England +1 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Patriots stayed out on the West Coast last week and I love that and this week they face their former long-term OC in Josh McDaniels. I know it is a bit surprising but former Belichick assistants actually do quite well against their former mentor. I know my model likes the Pats here but I really like the Raiders as they are far more talented and while Pats are on short rest and playing their second consecutive road game.
Game 13: Titans @ Chargers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Tennessee +3 (-115)
My 2 cents - While Keenan Allen might be the better receiver, I think we are seeing that Mike Williams is the more important one for this offense. when they have him in the lineup, they are far more dangerous throwing the ball and this week they take on a Titans team that can’t cover anyone (given up the 3rd most passing yards per game; 27th in DVOA). What makes this matchup even more interesting is that the Chargers can’t stop the run at all (25th in DVOA) so it becomes a question of whether the Titans get bored of Derrick Henry gashing a D (like they did last week) or do they stick with it?
Game 14: Bengals @ Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Stats that might matter -
Brady is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS as a home dog in his career
Burrow is 17-3 ATS in his past 19 starts
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Cinci -3.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Is there a team less fun right now than the Bucs? They are brutal to watch as everything they do seems like a struggle, while Cinci might be the most fun. My model has this as the 5th-best team vs the 22nd…Look, I know betting Cinci laying the points is about as square as you can get this week and this line just is so suspicious, but I am ready to look like a moron as the Bucs are terrible. I am going with my model. I will also tell you now that I am going to bet the Bucs 2H team total under 0.5 units.
Game 15: Giants @ Washington (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Stats that might matter -
Everyone talks about Kirk Cousins in primetime, but what about Danny Loose Change? Per Action Network, Daniel Jones is 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS in primetime in his career
Taylor Heinicke is 11-3-1 ATS over his last 15 starts
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Week after week we are seeing the formula the well-coached but talent-poor Giants need to win - keep it close, no mistakes, steal it at the end and I feel like that is how this game is going to play out. This is going to be close, low scoring and my model passes and I am going to as well, but I think the under is the move though I would not be surprised at all if the Giants pull the upset though I expect them to really struggle rushing in a conventional sense vs Washington (4th best rush D by DVOA) so I expect Saquan to be bottled up by Danny to bust loose.
All The Plays
Model Plays (make sure to read above as I passed on a bunch):
2u plays
Vikings -4
Ravens +3
1u plays
Lions +1.5
Cowboys -4
Broncos -3
Patriots +1
Bengals -3.5
0.5u plays
Seahawks +3 - Loss
Panthers -2.54
Titans +3
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 0.5u 7pt Teaser +127 on Seahawks +10 / Ravens +9.5 / Falcons +11
0.5u 7pt Teaser +131 on Bears +16 / Rams +14 / Ravens +10
1u 6pt Teaser -115 on Bills -1 / Giants +10.5
1u on Falcons +4 (-110)
0.5u on Bills -6.5 (-125)
0.525 on Eagles 1H -5.5 (-105)
0.525 on Vikings 1H -3 (-105)
Pending - 1.25u on Mia TT under 17.5 (-125)
1u on JAX/ Dal 1H over 23.5 (-105)
0.5u on NYG / Was under 40.5 (-110)
0.5u on NE / LV over 44.5 (-108)
0.25u on Buf / Mia under 44 (-110)
1u parlay +116 on Cowboys -210 / Bills -325 / Chiefs -820
0.5u parlay +173 on Panthers -151 / Broncos -155
0.5u parlay +533 on Falcons +175 / Ravens +130
Player Props5
Loss - 0.25 on Christian McCaffrey under 119.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
Pending - 0.5u on Tua Tagovailoa under 241.5 passing yards (-115)
0.5u on Andy Dalton to throw an INT +105
0.25u on Deshaun Cosby to throw an INT (-110)
0.25u on Michael Pittman Jr TD +200
Loss - 0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week #1
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week #2 - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I know most folks do not care about the reason, but it is part of the anti-trust rules around the NFL and their ability to be anti-competitive and basically run a monopoly
Goff is a career 25-13 ATS indoors but 29-32-2 outside
And they would be leading it right now if DJ Moore doesn’t take his helmet off vs the Falcons and Cade York doesn't make an insanely long FG to win that game.
Edit note, this was originally typed in at -3, but if you saw above I took them at -2.5
Other props I like: N’Keal Harry to score a TD +800; Sp/Def TD to be scored in Car/Pit +230; TY Hilton first TD +1900