Week 15 Recap
We got back to winning ways! Now, a 1.7u profit is not going to send anyone on a fancy vacation, but I will never be sorry for turning a profit and widdling down the loss that we started with.
If only the Bears did completely fold late again and if the Jaguars did poop their pants at the site of the redzone we could have had a monster week. I know it feels week after week we are just one or two games away from a monster, but that is unfortunately the business of gambling.
I know it is easy to see the Jaguars score and figure they got blown out, but they had 2 missed FGs1, a fumble in the redzone by Lawrence with no one around him, and an end of the first half where they should have come away with at least an FG but instead let the clock run out. To me, that is at least 13 points left on the table, and I am not counting the drive late where they gave the ball away on down deep into opposition territory. They get those 13 points and we cover, hit a parlay, and teaser.
Digging into the numbers a bit, we once again had a down week with spread bets (-0.4u) and totals (-0.11).
In the category of things that were SUPER profitable this week Props with a big $1.97 win and money line bets cashed an amazing $11.25! Parlays and teasers were where we really kept ourselves going with a nice profit between them.
On the futures front - we had 3 bets settle this week (net loss of 0.48u):
Lions under 9.5 - Loss
Rams over 6.5 - Win
Patriots over 7 - Loss
We still have a few more on the edge of settling, including a player prop, where we have Ridder needing 123 yards to get our over for the year (though he just got benched again). If Christian Watson can ever get back and get us 1 more receiving TDs we can cash that too.
Golf Recap
In case you missed it, we had an incredibly successful year betting golf with hitting 13 outright winners across the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. As such, earlier this week, I published my recap of last year’s golf bets. Unlike many folks on #GamblingTwitter, I believe in total transparency and each year I do a deep dive into our results so make sure you do not miss that:
Thursday Night Football Pick and Analysis
Other bets:
0.25u Cooper Kupp ATD +120
1u 7pt teaser Cowboys +8.5 / Vikings +10 / Chargers +19 (+127)
0.5u 6pt teaser Saints +10 / Texans +8.5 (-115)
they were both over 50yrd FGs so I generally think they should have made 1