Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment:
Home teams are 11-19-2 ATS
Underdogs are 18-12-2 ATS
OVERs went 13-3 in Week 2. the most overs in a single week since 1990
NFC is 5-0 in inter-conference games1
Nuggets about teams starting 0-2
3 teams have gone 0-2 and won the Super Bowl - Dallas 1995, New England 2001, and NY Giants 2007
Per Adam Schefter, since the NFL went to seven playoff teams in each conference in 2020, only one of the 23 teams to start the season 0-2 wound up reaching the playoffs: the 2022 Bengals.
The last time the Patriots went 0-2 was in 2001
Per Ben Fawkes, The NFC South has more undefeated teams (three) than the entire AFC (two -- Dolphins, Ravens)
One thing to note is that we have not really seen a great performance from the 0.5u picks so something to think about when evaluating plays this week. Everything will be tracked, as always.
The games:
TNF Recap - Obviously that did not go our way at all. Purdy really tried to throw that pick for us, especially early, but sadly the Giants suck too much to have caught the ball.
College Football Picks
I know folks like college football picks and, while it is not something I post here on Substack, it is a sport I bet. By popular demand on Discord, I have been posting my college football picks each week, and last week these were my picks (I add the checks and X’s when the games finish):
Given that folks seem to really love this content here is my material action at the time of publishing2 (in alphabetical order):
Cinci +15
Clemson +1.5
Michigan St +7
Middle Tennesee St -2.5, -2, and ML
ND +3.5 and ML
Oregon -21
San Jose St +3.5 (tonight)
I am unlikely to keep posting this content here so make sure you come join to get that content going forward as well!!!
Other Plays
One of the reasons I am so big on transparency is that I can tell you who I am betting and you can see my record and choose what is right for you (e.g., follow, fade, follow only some) so to that end….reminder from Thursday - the Titanic Model (plays above) were profitable the last 2 weeks and the below have not been so something to keep in mind when you are thinking about what to bet.
Totals, Parlays, Teasers, and Props:
0.5u on Patriots -145
0.25u Steelers +130
0.5u on Titans / Browns under 39.5 -110
0.25u on Panthers / Seahawks under 42.5 -110
0.5u parlay on Ravens -420 / Bengals -135 (+116)
0.25u parlay on Titans +153 / Steelers +130 (+482)
0.5u on a 7.5pt teaser of Bears +20.5 / Falcons +10.5 / Broncos +14 (+116)
Loss - 0.5u on a 7pt teaser of NY Giants +17 / Titans +10 / Bills +0.5 (+131)
Props
Loss - 0.25u Brock Purdy over 0.5 INTs +215
0.25u on Dak Prescott’s longest completion over 35.5 yards -115
0.25u on Zay Flowers over 49.5 yards receiving -124
0.25u on DeShaun Cosby over 0.5 INTs +110
0.25u on Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs +105
0.25u on Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs +170
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
EDIT NOTE- this originally said 4-0 but that was incorrect. It was updated 9/22 at 8pm ET
These are the numbers at which I bet them and what I have action on right now. I do not know what the current lines are and I could add more later. As always, your bets are your responsibility so do not bet more than you can lose.