Programming Note:
I got some feedback last week that folks would prefer if I put all the plays in one place. I will do this under one condition. In a section at the bottom of this called “All the plays” I am going to list all my model’s plays and then my exotics. As you know I might personally skip/change my model plays (see Washington last week) so it is on YOU to make sure you read the game breakdowns to make sure you understand my personal reasoning for how I am betting (if you care).
Make sure you are coming over to Gamblers Paradise to come chat with us!!
Some interesting things to note
Per Josh Dubow, In the Super Bowl Era, only 6 teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3; only the 1992 Chargers did it after starting 0-4 - Vegas is the only 0-3 team in the NFL.
There are only two 3-0 teams in the NFL, the Phins and the Eagles. Per Ben Volin, that was also the super bowl match-up in Ace Ventura so I guess the Dolphins finally got snowflake back!
There have been 18 games decided by 3 points or less is the most through week 3 ever
Unders are 30-18 through Week 3
Underdogs are 29-18-1 against the spread through Week 3
The remnants of Hurricane Ian should mean a number of games on the east coast will be played in the rain so something to keep in mind for the games in Baltimore, Philly, and NJ
Week 4
Game 1: Dolphins @ Bengals (Thursday 8:15 pm) - Loss -0.5u
Game 2: Vikings @ Saints (Sunday 9:30 am) -
Stat that might matter - This is taking place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London so note the early start time for this one #COYS!
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on New Orleans +3 +105
My 2 cents - I do not have a great feel for either of these teams. I thought the Saints would be a better team coming into the season, but Jameis’ broken back is clearly affecting him. On the flip side, what the hell is this Vikings team? They really should have lost last week and got killed 2 weeks ago.
Verdict - Pass
Game 3: Browns @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Browns have the highest EPA/ play rushing the ball and Falcons are near the bottom
I expect that the Browns will not have Myles Garrett following his scary car accident
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Cleveland -1
My 2 cents - Okay, this line has moved from the Browns -3 to Browns -1 and I honestly do not understand this at all. I love the Browns in the spot as I think they are going to run all over the Falcons as the Falcons couldn’t cover me on D. Cleveland’s D is going to be challenged by a frisky Falcons offense.
Verdict - I am betting Cleveland for 1u
Game 4: Washington @ Dallas (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Per Todd Archer, Cooper Rush is the 2nd QB to win his first three career starts with game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or OT. Virgil Carter is the other - yeah I don’t know who that is either.
Per Adam Schefter - last week the Cowboys had the most pressures in a game for them since 2017
The Bengals and Washington have given up the same number of sacks
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I am not sure, but Washington might be the worst coached team in the NFL and it is really looking like that Jags / Washington Week 1 is going to be the game we all look back at and wonder what the heck happened. Cooper Rush isn’t Dak, but they are continuing to live by their defense-crushing QBs and he is not making game-losing mistakes. Speaking of a D that is crushing QBs, Wentz got sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles and I expect the Cowboys D to feist.
Verdict - I released a pick earlier this week. I love the Cowboys -3 (-120) in this spot.
Game 5: Seahawks @ Lions (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter - Lions are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 games at home
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Seattle +4 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Lions devised a very Lions-y way to lose that game last week. Former NFL GM Michael Lombardi has a concept1 of 60, 50, and 40-minute teams and I think the Lions might be the epitome of a 50 min team. They also go into this game missing Amon-Ra St. Brown and (likely) DeAndre Swift.
Verdict - I really like Seahawks +4
Game 6: Titans @ Colts (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter - Titans are 3-0 straight up and ATS in the last 3 vs Indy
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Titans +3.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - Look, I was happy because I bet on the Colts, but they really had no business winning that game last week. The Colts OL is really a problem and while Matt Ryan is doing the team no favors, how much of it is that he is getting his ass beat each week. Neither of these teams is any good, but Derrick Henry looked to have a bit more juice last week. As I start to load up my in-season model2 with stats it is striking how little it thinks of Indy (31st in offense, 18th on D, 15th in “other”). The only thing they seemingly do well is stop the run and they are going to have to do it this week to win.
Verdict - Following the model
Game 7: Bears @ Giants (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Something to keep in mind for the future - Daniel Jones is now 0-9 in primetime as starting QB
Per ESPN, Chicago has the 25th best pass rush win rate
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I am not a fan of Daniel Jones, but I have to give him credit. He got the absolute shit beat out of him Monday night and he never stopped looking downfield and never got happy feet in the pocket. I think he is a backup QB in the league, but he is a tough dude and he has zero weapons to help him. Not that the other side has a good QB. I loved Justin Fields coming out of college but he’s been terrible.
Verdict - The Giants can’t stop the run. I love the Bears +3 here.
Game 8: Jaguars @ Eagles (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter - Eagles have not scored in the 2nd half of either of the last 2 games
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Jags +6.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Doug Pederson Debry! Yes, the Eagles and Jalen Hurts have looked good but the Eagles’ schedule means they are going to continue to blow out bad teams. That said, I think the Jags’ very quick front 7 could give the Eagles’ offense a bit of trouble. Speaking of the Jags, I tried to tell you last week that the Jaguars might win that game last week. They are actually good and really talented. It turns out having top 5 picks year after year will get you some good players. Who knew?! Jags DC comes from Tampa, which clowned the Eagles twice last year.
Verdict - I am a little worried about Jags OL here, but I am still going with the Jags +6.5 for 1u and again do not be surprised if they win outright.
Game 9: Jets @ Steelers (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Tomlin is only 82-94-5 (46.6%) against the spread as a favorite
The Steelers are 0-6 when Watt misses a game
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - This is going to be a bad game, but I expect that Trubisky should be able to attack the Jets’ defense as the Saleh defense doesn’t really try to confuse you, but instead plays some rather vanilla stuff. For the Jets, I think their offense is going to struggle with the Steelers D.
Verdict - I lean towards the Steelers, but will pass. I think under is the way to go.
Game 10: Bills @ Ravens (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Weather Report - This is the game that should be most affected by the storms with 20-25mph wind
Stat that might matter -
Ravens are 5-0 ATS as a home dog in the last 5 times it has happened
Per Action Network, teams coming off games in Miami are 57-79-4 ATS
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Ravens +3 (-110)
My 2 cents - Go take a look at the box score last week for the Bills / Dolphins game. Then look at the score and tell me how the Bills lost. I am not really sure, but glad that my Dolphins ticket was cashed. As Bill Simmons rightly pointed out the Bills are really good at blowing teams out but seem to struggle in close ones. The Bills really blew that game. On the other side of this game, I was super confused by all the love on the Pats last week. I know for a fact they were the sharp / book side and I honestly didn’t and still don’t get it. Per Warren Sharp, The Bills’ offense is now based more around ball possession and efficiency rather than explosiveness and aggression
Verdict - I really like the Ravens in the spot and am going to roll with my model Ravens +3
Game 11: Chargers @ Texans (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I had a bunch of “bad beats” last week and I am not sure a push counts but that Texans / Bears push made me furious. The Texans should really have won that game last week. The Chargers will be missing Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater for at least the next 4 weeks and missing those two is huge.
Verdict - I really want to take the Texans here but will use them in exotics instead so Pass
Game 12: Cardinals @ Panthers (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Arizona has been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter this season
CMC is already banged up and missing practice
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Cardinals +1 (-110)
My 2 cents - This is one of those games that confuse me. I am not sure we have seen anything from the Panthers that should have us believing they are anything but awful and CMC hasn’t practiced all week. I know the only thing worse than Kliff’s coaching is Kyler’s body language and their advanced stats aren’t very good, but I just can’t get over this line.
Verdict - I am going with my model Cards +1
Game 13: Patriots @ Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Frank Taddeo, Green Bay has won 14 consecutive games (11-3 ATS) at home
Per Frank Taddeo, Brian Hoyer is 1-12 straight up in his last 13 starts
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Patriots +9.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - The Packers’ offense seems to have trouble moving the ball and their D has not been nearly as good as I expected. Are the Patriots the worst team in the NFL? Look it seems like everyone can score/move the ball on the Ravens, but this Pats team struggled and their offense looks disjointed. That all said, can Hoyer really look worse than Mac Jones has?
Verdict - I think this is too many points so I am going to close my eyes and go with the model Pats +9.5
Game 14: Broncos @ Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter - Denver is 1-8 ATS in the last 9 vs the Raiders
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I do not care that the Broncos won last Sunday night but they look like crap and Russell Wilson is really bad. When I go back and review Raiders’ tape, they are just sloppy and seem to be missing out on the details of football and that is really costing them. That all said, the Broncos are GARBAGE.
Verdict - I really want to bet on the Raiders, but this just seems like the book wants us to bet on the Raiders. Pass
Game 15: Cheifs @ Buccaneers (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Joe Osborne, the Bucs are 7-2 ATS after a loss since Tom Brady joined the team in 2020
Per Julian Edlow, the Chiefs are 8-7 ATS following with Mahomes. KC was just 2-3 ATS following a loss last season.
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Do we underrate the kicker position in football? Since Butker got hurt their Kicker situation is holding them hostage and changing how they call plays for the worse. Add that on top of the fact that the KC OL really doesn’t look good but they keep still trying to establish the run. The OL is also resulting in Mahomes getting hit a ton, and unless Kelce is catching the ball who is Pat throwing it to in a big spot? On the other side, the Bucs’ offense doesn’t look good, but their D is top-notch.
Verdict - I am going to Pass, but I like the under here.
Game 16: Rams @ 49ers (Monday 8:15 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
49ers are 6-1 straight up and ATS in the last 7 vs the Rams
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - As soon as Trent Williams went out of that game 49ers team absolutely fell apart, but these are two of the oddest teams all season. Rams looked dreadful opening night, could have easily let the Falcons game get away, and seemed to struggle late against the Cards. The 49ers are really good on D, but can they score? Their offense seems awful.
Verdict - Pass, but I will likely use Rams in some exotics and I do not think the 49ers can win by multiple scores in this game.
All The Plays
Model Plays:
1u plays
Seattle +4
Baltimore +3
Arizona +1
New England +9.5
0.5u plays
Miami +4 -Loss
New Orleans +3
Cleveland -1
Tennesee +3.5
Jacksonville +6.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 1u on Dallas Cowboys -3 (-120)
1u on KC / TB under 46 (-115)
0.5u on Cleveland / Atlanta over 47 (-110)
1.2u 6pt teaser -120 on Rams +7.5 / Cardinals +7
0.5u 6pt teaser +150 on Jets +9 / Broncos +8.5 / Cardinals +7
0.5u 6pt teaser +131 on Titans +10.5 / Bears +10 / Patriots +16.5
0.5u parlay +155 on Minnesota -165 / Dallas -170
0.5u parlay +172 on Chicago +3.5 / Dallas -170
0.5u parlay +267 on Clevelad -120 / Arizona +100
0.25u parlay +597 on Jags +6.5 / Titans +3.5 / Texans +6
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +807 - Jags +230 / Seahawks +175
Player Props
0.25 on Tee Higgins ATD (+140) - Win
0.5u on over DAL / Washington 5.5 sacks (-115)
0.5u on Treylon Burks over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
0.5u Christian Kirk over 58.5 yards (-115)
0.25u on Derek Carr under 269.5 passing yards -115
0.25 on Kareem Hunt ATD (+150)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
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Survivor Thoughts
Last week’s section worked out nicely so thank you for the great feedback! This week is a tough one. Here are the ones I am passing on.
Lions - I am worried that without Swift and St. Brown they will struggle to move the ball
Eagles - I think they are favored for a reason, but what if they are just playing an easy schedule and this Jags team is actually good?
Steelers - Mike Tomlin vs the Jets should help, but I really don’t want to tie my fate to Trubisky
My options are going to be:
Packers - This seems like the safest pick to me this week, but I think they are favored by way too many points and 40% of folks are taking them.
Chargers - Would I be shocked if the Texans win? No, but it seems like Chargers are the far better team
I am going with the Chargers as my pick for Week 43
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
This concept is how long a team can play well in a game. For example, a 50-minute team can hold their game plan and competence together for 50 minutes but fall apart at the end of the games
As you may know, my picks columns include the results from my Titanic Model, but what you do not know is that it is actually 2 models. 1 model is what I use in the offseason to create my futures tickets and the picks for the early weeks of the season. Around Week 4 or Week 5, I flip to my in-season model that starts to weigh the stats of this current year with some other factors like last year and the off-season model to come up with plays. Last year I switched over in Week 4 and it was a disaster (-12u in one week) so this year I am doing the switch in Week 5.
Week 1- Ravens; Week 2 - Rams; Week 3 - Bengals