Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment:
Through 3 weeks, divisional dogs are 11-6 ATS (9-7 outright), the best win rate since 2018
Night-game unders are 9-3 to start the season and are 49-25 since the start of last season
After starting 5-0 in inter-conference games, NFC went 0-3 in Week 3
Only 4 teams have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3
Teams going into a bye and facing a divisional opponent are 49-19 ATS (Browns, Bucs, and Chargers qualify this week)
Some Week 3 / Week 4 specific notes
Per Rich Eisen, the Dolphins’ 70 points last week was the highest score in a single game since 1966 and, per Andrew Hawkins, that game might have been personal for Mike McDaniel
Per Todd Fuhrman, since 1970, teams that score 60+ points are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their next game
Per Ben Fawkes, there are 4 teams that are undefeated vs. the spread so far (3-0: Cards, and Phins. 2-0-1: Rams and Eagles)1.
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
As I mentioned on Thursday, I am switching over to my in-season model starting this week but will try to call out when the models disagree.
The games:
TNF Recap - Kept it light with one small prop bet on LaPorta that lost.
Note - The first Sunday game is in London and takes place at 9:30 am ET.
Gamblers Paradise
Thank you so much for the positive feedback on the NCAAF picks last week. I hate that they did not work out for folks. If you are looking for those, or much much more fun gambling and sports talk, make sure you come to hang out at Gamblers Paradise Discord.
Other Plays
One of the reasons I am so big on transparency is that I can tell you who I am betting and you can see my record and choose what is right for you (e.g., follow, fade, follow only some) so to that end….reminder from Thursday - the below have not been profitable so far so something to keep in mind when you are thinking about what to bet.
Totals, Parlays, Teasers, and Props:
1u on Pittsburgh Steelers -145
0.25u on Carolina Panthers +180
0.5u on Tampa Bay Buccaneers TT under 17.5 -125
0.5u on New England Patriots TT under 17.5 -110
0.25u on Houston Texans TT under 19.5 +105
0.5u parlay on Eagles -430 / Steelers -145 (+108)
0.5u parlay on Dallas -275 / Buffalo -145 (+130)
0.25u parlay on Panthers +180 / Saints -175 (+340)
0.5u 6pt-teaser on Ravens +7.5 / Panthers +10.5 / Cheifs -2.5 (+150)
0.5u 6pt-teaser on Jets +14.5 / Commanders +15 (-110)
Props2
0.25u on Miles Sanders over 55.5 rushing yards -113
0.25u on Justin Tucker over 6.5 kicking points +105
0.25u on Jake Ferguson any time TD +300
0.25u on Deshaun Cosby over 0.5 INTs +155
0.25u on Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs +106
0.25u on Geno Smith over 0.5 INTs +140
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
The Packers were on this list until they lost last night
Travis Kelce Any Time TD seems tooooooo obvious here