Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment:
This is the first week of bye weeks. We have the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers with the week off.
Per Ed Werder, there are two teams who haven't run an offensive play with a lead this season: the New York Giants and the New York Jets. The Giants are the NFL’s only 0-4 ATS team and while they are 1-3 SU, they have led for a total of 19 seconds.
The San Fransico 49ers are the only remaining team undefeated against the spread at 3-0-1, but there are 5 winless ATS teams1
Some Week 4 / Week 5 specific notes
Per Ben Fawkes, Zach Wilson last week was the only opposing QB to have more completions, passing yards, TD passes, and fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes in ANY of the 127 games Mahomes has started in college or the NFL.
Per Bobby Belt, the 49ers have trailed for just 105 of the 14,400 seconds they have played in 2023
With his win last week, Andy Reid tied Tom Landry with 250 wins in his career.
The 38-3 loss to Dallas was the largest margin of loss in the 497 games Bill Belichick has coached; The Pats are 3-8 in their last 11 and those 3 wins have come against Zach Wilson, Skylar Thompson, and Colt McCoy.
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
The games:
TNF Recap - Another 0.5u bet that looked atrocious, thankfully we got the easy over to slice the loss in half and I hope you all listened to me when I warned against using the Commanders in teasers and survivor pools.
I am killing the 0.5u bets from the model. They have been atrocious. I will reevaluate them as the season goes on to see if, as the model tunes, they turn back profitable.
Note - The first Sunday game is in London (COYS!!) and takes place at 9:30 am ET.
Other Plays
One of the reasons I am so big on transparency is that I can tell you who I am betting and you can see my record and choose what is right for you (e.g., follow, fade, follow only some) so to that end….reminder from Thursday - the below have not been profitable so far so something to keep in mind when you are thinking about what to bet.
Totals, Parlays, Teasers, and Props:
Spread / ML
0.5u NY Jets +120
1u Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-115)
1u Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-110)
Totals
0.5u on New Orleans Saints / New England Patriots under 39.5 (-110)
0.5u on Cincinnati Bengals / Arizona Cardinals under 45 (-110)
0.5u on Green Bay Packers / Las Vegas Raiders over 44.5 (-110)
Teasers
0.5u on 7pt teaser of Steelers +11.5 / Vikings +10.5 / Jets +9.5 (+131)
0.5u on 6pt teaser of Cowboys +9.5 / Packers +7 (-115)
0.25u on 7pt teaser of u46.5 NO-NE / o36.5 NYJ-Den / u52 Cin-Ari (+135)
Parlays
0.25u parlay on NYJ +120 / Dallas Cowboys +165 (+483)
0.25u parlay on NYG +12.5 / Falcons -130 / Dallas +3.5 (+545)
Props2
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
NYG are 0-4; Panthers, Bengals, Broncos, and Saints are all 0-3-1.
I came THIS close to betting Zay Flowers over 45.5 receiving yards, but Tomlin’s presser where he talked about how good Flowers is scared me.
I am also going to sprinkle a little on him to be First TD scorer at 15-1
I know this is going to look odd to folks, especially with Dallas’ RZ struggles, but when you want the all 22, it is clear he needs to hold the ball on more of those RPO’s and I think he will this week.