This week I want to chat about Pro Football Focus1. This company's stats and ratings are quoted very frequently including on Sunday Night Football each week when they do the team introductions.
I am very much of two minds about this company. I LOVE some of the analytics and stats that they put out. For example, I quite like these charts on the frequency of achieving a 1st down for offenses and defenses with a breakdown of what down they achieve those on. Now that said, their ratings are dookie.
Two examples, last year they rated 1st team all-pro Trevon Diggs as basically the worst cornerback in the NFL. Look, I am not here to tell you that he was the best corner in the league, but the dude picked off 11 balls so he was clearly not the worst. This season they are rating Jamar Chase as the 40th-best WR. If you can name 39 WRs you would rather have on your favorite team I would love to hear the list.
The moral of this story is that you should be careful where you get the information that you use for betting. Some sources of information can be helpful and useful for certain things and they can be completely useless for other things so this is something you need to analyze before using/drawing conclusions based on anyone else’s data.
Three things worth noting this week:
This is our first week with less than 16 games as the Lions, Titans, Raiders, and Texans have their respective bye weeks
We are starting to hit the part of the year where my personal wagers will be more and more aligned with my model so going forward, I will only have a “verdict” bullet where my wager is something other than what the model says (e.g., I risk a different amount, am betting the total, taking a different side), otherwise, my take on the game will be incorporated into the “my two cents” section
I REALLY like the slate of games this week. That is either a really good thing or a really bad thing HAHA. Let’s find out!
Some interesting trends/stats:
Per Rich Hribar, 6 teams have averaged fewer than 6.0 yards per play in every game this year (Bengals, Cards, Colts, Steelers, Panthers, and Bears)
Unders and Underdogs are both 46-33-1
Per David Purdam, entering this week, primetime game unders are 11-4 and divisional game unders are 20-7
Week 6
Game 1: Washington @ Bears (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Game 2: 49ers @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter - The Falcons are 5-0 ATS this season, including 2 massive back door covers
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Falcons +5.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Falcons got SCREWED last week with one of the worst calls I have ever seen, but the final score really made seem much closer than that game was. The vaunted 49ers D is banged up (the entire DL didn’t practice on Wednesday), but I am interested to see how they deal with this intriguing offensive scheme that Arthur Smith has drawn up. Let’s see if we can get another cover!
Game 3: Patriots @ Browns (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Jacoby Brissett has 3 INTs this year and all are within the last 3 min of games, including the last 2 weeks which cost them games.
Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Browns -2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I know the Browns covered my 3u +2.5 last week but they realllllly should have won that game and didn’t because Stefanski is an awful coach. One thing we should all be keeping an eye on is the Amari Cooper splits for home and away games as this was a clear angle when he was in Dallas and it looks to have continued here in Cleveland. Bill Belichick returns to Cleveland and I am sure he will have something in his bag of tricks to stymie the Browns’ offense, but am I nuts to think the Browns win this game? The Pats have been playing not to lose games and not asking their offenses to do much other than run and not turn the ball over and I think that this week the music stops on that ride. I think the Browns’ stupid loss and the Pats’ blowout last week are keeping this number from going to where it should be so give me the Browns.
Game 4: Jets @ Packers (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter - Per Frank Taddeo, Wilson is a 6-3 ATS in his last 9 starts
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Packer +7.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Okay, we really need to talk about the Packers’ D, which is ranked 23rd in DVOA. They just got worked up and down the field in back-to-back weeks by Daniel Jones and Bailey Zappe. They seem to have a real problem with physicality and quick under-routes. The Jets looked good last week, but I am not sure how much I can take away from that game as the Dolphins lost Teddy on their first play from scrimmage and then had their 7th-round pick play the whole game. The Packers are not taking the post-London bye and need to ask themselves why they abandoned to run so early last week when the Giants were daring them to do it last week. One thing no one is really talking about is getting Bakhtiari and Jenkins back and practicing. I like this as a bounceback for the Packers as I think this line should be 10.
Game 5: Jaguars @ Colts (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per ESPN, The Colts became the second team in the Super Bowl era to win a game in which they scored 0 touchdowns, threw multiple interceptions, and got sacked at least 6 times
Per Odds Shark, The total has gone under in 8 of Indianapolis' last 8 games against an AFC opponent.
The Colts have trailed at halftime in their last 7 games and have an offense that is ranked 32nd in EPA/down
Per Frank Taddeo, Jags are 8-1-1 ATS in last 10 vs Indy
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Jacksonville +2 (-108)
My 2 cents - This is a really underwhelming matchup. Trevor Lawrence has looked awful for two weeks, but I still think he will right the ship eventually as I am betting on his talent. That said, the Jags were JUST asking to lose that game last week and gave away the Eagles’ game. Speaking of teams who seemed to be trying to lose, the Colts really had no business winning that suck-fest last Thursday night and come into this game with a ton of injuries, though JT might be back. I think that at the end of the day the Colts are at a talent deficit here and I again think this line is off over an overreaction from last week.
Verdict - In addition to the model’s play, I like the Jags 1H and full game money lines and the under in this game.
Game 6: Vikings @ Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Vikings are 4-1, but have they done anything to give you any confidence? They beat the Packers (not as impressive as you’d think), got blown out by the Eagles, and have now barely beaten the terrible Lions, Saints, and Bears. We might not know if they are frauds until they hit the Bills, Cowboys, and Patriots stretch in a few weeks, and even though I took them to win their division, I have my doubts about how good they are. On the other side, Miami is being ultra-cautious with Tua and Teddy now so they will be starting their 7th rounder again, but their defense has not been playing well. I really just don’t want to touch this game and neither does my model.
Game 7: Bengals @ Saints (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Saints +2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - From my film review, it seems like that teams are now sitting in Cover 2 to try and stymie Jamar Chase and force Burrow to dump it off so the team is struggling to make explosive plays but is able to run it well. Further to the problems they have, is a simple fact that the Bengals clearly can’t protect Burrow and I expect Dennis Allen to draw up a D that will get pressure.
Game 8: Ravens @ Giants (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Joe Osborne, the Unders are 13-1-1 in the Giants’ last 15 home games, 11 have failed to reach 40
I often say, in NFL kicking there is Justin Tucker and then there is everyone else. Per Next Gen Stats, since 2016, Tucker has added +201% in win probability on lead-changing kicks, more than double the next closest kicker.
With Lamar at QB, the Ravens are 35-16-2 ATS in the 1H as a favorite
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I am annoyed that I lost my bet on the Ravens last week as they really should have covered. I love Lamar and I can't wait to cash my MVP ticket, but Lamar really had an up-and-down game last week. He seemed to miss a lot of throws and it will be interesting to see how he goes against the former Ravens DC Wink Martindale. I said earlier this season that on my all-22 film review the Giants looked well coached and honestly2, they have gotten more impressive each week. Daboll is the real deal so it is interesting to see the decision to not take the post-London bye which might backfire as their secondary is super beat-up.
Game 9: Buccaneers @ Steelers (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter - Per the Action Network, the Steelers are 15-9 SU, 17-4-3 ATS as a home dog over the last 20 years
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Steelers +9 (-115)
My 2 cents - Last week saw the Steelers get pummeled from the opening whistle so while I think the Buccaneers should absolutely win this game, I wonder if this line is a little too inflated. Often the public reacts week-to-week a little too much and this line really should be about a touchdown per my model. I really like over for Fournette’s rushing yards and do not be surprised if Mike Evans goes off.
Verdict - I am passing on this as TB is going to crush this game
Game 10: Panthers @ Rams (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Rams have played 3 of the top 5 defenses in the league (Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys)
Per Frank Taddeo, the Panthers are 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Carolina +10 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Panthers are atrocious, have fired the coach, and “lost” Baker3. My model views them as the 2nd worst team in the NFL. The defense is a little bit better than league average, but oh god their offense is so unbelievably bad. Now having said all of that, why do we think the Rams are any good? Have you seen a single thing this season that makes you believe in them? My model thinks their offense is 26th in the league and their defense is about league average. I like that the model is not taking too much risk here, but betting on the side where I think the value lies as the Rams are shockingly talent poor.
Game 11: Cardinals @ Seahawks (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Note - Per Ian Rapport, this game time could change
Stat that might matter -
The Cardinals have yet to score in the first quarter
Per Frank Taddeo, Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 @ Seattle
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Seattle +2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Kliff Kingsberry might be the worst coach in the NFL. The Fox TV folks showed a video on TV from pregame warmups of their kicker shanking kicks from the exact spot kicked from to cost them the game. Why in the world would you send him out there? The Seahawks D isn’t the legion of boom, but the Cardinals’ offense is super one-dimensional with little to no running attack other than when Kyler takes off. Also, we all need to take notice that Geno is DEALING and is running the offense way better than Russ did the last 2 years.
Verdict -
Game 12: Bills @ Chiefs (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Ben Fawkes, Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS as an underdog but has never been a home ‘dog
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I can’t wait to see this game. Not to sound like Bill Simmons, but are we sure the Bills are so outstanding? They beat what seems like a crappy Rams team, beat a not-good Titans team, lost to a frisky Dolphins team, should have lost to the Ravens, and then beat the crap out of the worst team in the NFL (per my model). On the flip side, the Chiefs really escaped last week with that massive comeback. I wonder how the Chiefs cover the Bills WRs. I know folks will be teasing the Cheifs up and I would not as they could easily get blown out here. Should be fun to see if the Bills are real or if the Chiefs can get this done.
Game 13: Cowboys @ Eagles (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Dallas has won their last 8 straight NFC East games
Cooper Rush is now 5-0 SU and ATS in his career, including wins over both of last year’s Super Bowl teams
Per Frank Taddeo, Dallas is 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games and 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 games vs Philly.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dallas +6.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I have been saying for the past 10 days that I expected Dallas to beat the Rams and then get found out by the Eagles….. I am wavering on that and you’ll see why…. but first can we stop with the “Rush is as good as Dak” nonsense? Per Bryan Broaddus, last week was the first time since Nov 1, 1970, the Cowboys won with 10 or fewer first downs; Dallas is relying on their running game, not turning the ball over, and a very good defense to win games. How good has the Cowboys’ D been? The Cowboys have not allowed 20 points through 5 games and, per Todd Archer, this is the first time since 1972 that has happened. On the flip side, I have seen what you all have seen, as the Eagles have looked very good this season, but as Pam Maldonado points out4, they have played 4 of their 5 games against teams with defenses in the bottom 6 of DVOA, and they struggled mightily against the one that was Top 10 and only won that game because Trevor Lawrence turned into a Pez-dispenser. Give me the 'Boys!
Verdict - I am going to bet the under in this game
The NBA season starts this week!!!
In preparation for the NBA season, I published my NBA preview and futures bets for this year. Last year, my futures produced over 11u of profit so make sure you check out that newsletter by clicking this button:
Come chat on the Gamblers Paradise Discord all season long!!
All My Plays
Model Plays:
2u Plays
Browns -2.5
Saints +2.5
1u Plays
Jaguars +2
Seahawks +2.5
Cowboys +6.5
0.5u Plays
Falcons +5.5
Packers -7.5
Steelers +9 (I am passing on this)
Panthers +10
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 0.5u 6pt Teaser +150 on KC-1 / TB -1.5 / Dallas +11.5
Pending - 0.5u parlay +239 on KC -340 / TB -360 / Jacksonville +105
1u on 6pt Teaser -120 on Jags +8 / Saints +8.5
1u on Dallas / Eagles Under 42 (-110)
1u on Steelers team total under 17.5 (-135)
1u on Ari / Sea u24.5 (-110)
0.5u on Ravens 1H -3.5 (-115)
0.5u on Jaguars 1H ML (+110)
0.5u on Seattle 1H ML (+110)
1u parlay +102 on Vikings -165 / Buccanneers -385
0.5u parlay +217 on Saints +118 / 49ers -220
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +812 - Dallas +220 / Broncos +185
Player Props
Loss - 0.5u on Carson Wentz over 0.5 INTs -120
0.5u Amari Cooper over 51.5 receiving yards -115
0.5u on Mixon over 55.5 rushing yards -125
0.25u on Aaron Jones over 86.5 rushing/receiving yards -115
0.25u on a Def/ST TD +220
0.25u Zach Ertz under 48.5 receiving yards -115
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!5
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Survivor Thoughts
Worth noting that I was able to enter a second in-season survivor pool so I am going to track that here as well!
Here are the ones I am passing on:
Chargers - I may dislike what I have seen from Russ, but I find staking my survivor life on Staley to be a bad idea and I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose
49ers - I still have PTSD from their shit show on Sunday Night Football a few weeks ago that cost me a huge week so going to need to see them consistently perform before I trust them
My options are going to be:
Buccaneers - I feel bad for Kenny Pickett as this could get BAD.
Packers - They really should be beating the Jets and beating them soundly at home coming off the loss
Rams - As much as I am concerned by the Rams, Carolins is AWFUL. The only worry is this is getting the most picks.
Season-long - I am going with the Buccaneers as my pick for Week 66
Mid-season- I am going with the Rams as my pick for Week 67
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I usually come up with this topic and start writing it about a week in advance and then add more, polish, and edit it so it is ready for Friday. This week, by coincidence, Jeff Cavanaugh also did a great video on this topic, so check that out too.
This plains me as a cowboys fan and someone who has LOTS of family and friends who are Giants fans
I say “lost” as PJ Walker is better than Baker and this will actually make them more competitive
I have said this before and I will say it again, make sure you give Pam a follow on Twitter. Her content is top-notch and her analysis is always insightful.
Note I changed the parlay when I sent the tweet so both options will get paid
Week 1- Ravens; Week 2 - Rams; Week 3 - Bengals; Week 4 - LAC; Week 5 - Bills
Week 5 - Bills;