Well we are almost here!!!! The NFL Season is JUST around the corner. In case you missed it, I published my NFL Player Futures just about a month ago and my Season Preview / QB rankings a couple weeks ago. Please make sure you check those out!
I will have a post out over the weekend or early next week that talks through what my content will look like for the NFL season so be on the lookout for that as I am honestly still figuring out what it will be!
Fantasy Football Preview
I love fantasy football and have been playing it for so long that my original drafts were in person, done with pen and paper and actual books / magazines in front of you. Hell, back in the day I used to help a family friend with his big stakes league where they would rent out the backroom of an Italian restaurant and have a real auctioneer!
Now let’s talk some of my biases - I am a believer in doing auction only1. I HATE snake drafts. While I personally only do one league, I would refuse to do any league that is not a snake draft…..Yes that is right, I do one fantasy league2.
What has made me a very successful Fantasy Football player is the same thing I always talk about with being a successful gambler - finding value. Finding value in fantasy drafts is simply finding guys who will out perform where you are getting them and avoiding the guys you need to over spend to get. For example, in my fantasy draft last year I got Debo Samuel as the 40th highest paid WR in my league. Now did I expect him to be one of the best fantasy WRs in the league? No, but I expected him to be T20 with T10 potential so I was more than happy to pay #40 money for him. Same with Joe Mixon, I expected him to be a T5 RB and got him as the #13 highest paid back.
Here are my views of players that I believe are over valued / under valued at each position for this year (I am not saying they are bad or the best, just that there is value there or negative value to picking them):
QB
Undervalued: Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence
Overvalued: Trey Lance, Tua, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz
RB
Undervalued: Josh Jacobs, Javonte Williams, Joe Mixon
Overvalued: Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, CMC
WR
Undervalued: CeeDee Lamb, Gabriel Davis, Adam Theilen, Cortland Sutton
Overvalued: Debo Samuel, Corderelle Patterson, Amari Cooper, NY Giants WR’s
TE
Undervalued: Dalton Schultz, Pat Friermuth, Cole Kmet
Overvalued: Kyle Pitts, George Kittle
Now, this is not saying you should draft all the undervalued people or you should definitely not draft the overvalued, but more of a guide I will personally use during my draft.
NOTE - The next section is something I am re-running from the Player Futures newsletter in case folks are new, missed it or just ignored it (LOL). If you read it you can just skip down.
NFL Futures - My Methodology
Before we get into picks let’s chat futures betting. One thing you must keep in mind with futures betting is capital allocation. Yes, I know that sounds like fancy financier speak, but it is a relatively simple concept.
If you adhere to the 1% per unit bankroll methodology that means you have 100 units to play with for the year. If you allocate 50 units to Futures bets that means half of your total bankroll will be unavailable to you for the next 6 months. Where that can cause you problems is if you have a cold streak and you do not have any cash left over to dig your way out of the hole.
When I do my personal futures wagering I try to keep the amount risked under 25u and preferably under 20u. This may be too much for some so if that feels like too much for you just simply half all the risk I take and then you will be in the 10u - 12.5u range.
Let’s talk betting amounts. For the purposes of my model, please note that it will still be based on $100/unit3. As I have talked in the past about effective bankroll management, I have had profits so personally my units will be more than that. That said, please be assured I will never bet LESS than what I put in my picks columns and, most importantly, please please please please only bet what YOU can afford.
There is no shame in having a bankroll of $1,000 and betting $10/unit. We all start some where and the best way to build your bankroll is slow and steady.
Come hang out at our completely free and new discord where folks will be discussing why they like certain angles and watching games together!!
NFL Team Futures
This newsletter is getting too long so I am going to put my out my wagers with small snip its for each. If you have any questions and want more detailed thoughts, feel free just to reply to this or hit me up on twitter!
These are the wagers I am making (amounts shown are the risk amounts):
Team win totals:
1u on Carolina Panthers under 6.5 +110 ← I am going to need to see CMC and Baker stay healthy to believe this is going to end well
1u on New Orleans Saints over 8.5 -140 ← I think they are a playoff team
1u on Philadelphia Eagles over 9.5 -155 ← They have 7 games vs NYG, Washington, Chicago Jax, and Houston. Just need to find 3 more wins in the other 10 games
0.5u on Denver Broncos under 10 -130 ← I need to see Russ do well before I forget about last 18 months.
0.5u on Minnesota Vikings over 9.5 -115 ← Spoiler, I think they win the division
0.5u on San Fran 49ers under 10 -115 ← I’m out on Lance
0.5u on NY Jets under 5.5 +130 ← Saleh first coach fired anyone?
0.5u on Tennessee Titans under 9 -115 ← just out on them
0.25u on Atlanta Falcons least amount of wins +450
0.25u on Buffalo Bills most amount of wins +450
Division futures:
AFC South winner - 1.35u on Indianapolis Colts -135 ← I am not sure why this isn’t -175.
AFC West winner - 1u on Kansas City Chiefs +180 ← Why do we all want to pencil in that LAC defense that has been terrible?
AFC North winner - 1u on Baltimore Ravens +140 ← I love me some Lamar
NFC East winner - 1u on Philadelphia Eagles +150 ← Dallas OL really scares me
NFC North winner - 0.5u on Minnesota Vikings +260
NFC South winner - 0.25u on New Orleans Saints +300 ← Taking a shot in case TB OL is a disaster
NFC #1 Seed - 0.25u on Philadelphia Eagles +1600 ← Again 7 easy wins…..Can they find 6 or 7 more?
Conference futures:
AFC winner
0.5u on Buffalo Bills +350
0.5u on KC Chiefs +600
0.25u on Indianapolis Colts +1200
NFC winner - I think this is WIDEEEEEE OPEN so I am taking some long shots
0.25u on Dallas Cowboys +1000
0.25u on Philadelphia Eagles +1100
0.25u on Minnesota Vikings +1800
Super Bowl futures:
Winner
0.5u on Buffalo Bills +600
0.25u on Baltimore Ravens +2000
0.25u on Philadelphia Eagles +2200
0.25u on Minnesota Vikings +3300
My final playoff predictions
AFC Playoff Seeds:
Buffalo Bills
KC Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
LA Chargers
Cinci Bengals
LV Raiders
NFC Playoff Seeds:
Philadelphia Eagles
TB Bucs
Minnesota Vikings
LA Rams
Dallas Cowboys
GB Packers
New Orleans Saints
AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills over Indianapolis Colts (12-1 odds on this happening)
NFC Championship Game: Philadelphia Eagles over Minnesota Vikings (40-1 odds on this happening)
Super Bowl: Buffalo Bills over Philadelphia Eagles4
Let’s have an awesome season!!!
Best of luck in all your action this year!
It is absurd that in snake drafts there are people you are not able to have simply based on a random assigned order. I do not personally view snake drafts as real fantasy football and my friends and family members get endlessly made fun of if they play in these mouth breathing bugger eating leagues.
I have been in a high stakes league for a number of years and by construction it is a rather complex league so it takes a ton of time to manage as well as the fact that I do not want to be rooting for a guy in one league and against him in another - it has been a “super flex” league since before that was a mainstream thing
If you want to know my thoughts about bankroll management please check that section of this link. DO NOT BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD!
I do not see super bowl match up bets, but once they become available I will be doing all combinations of my final 4 teams for $10 each for fun.