NFL - Week 7 Picks and Analysis
"The comeback is always greater than the set back" - Mike "the situation" Sorrentino
For this week’s topic, I want to talk about why I personally gamble and it is to win/make money…..and yeah last week didn’t go well on this front. You might say “well, thank you Capt Obvious”, but it is actually not that simple.
As many of you do, I have friends and family with whom I discuss gambling. One of those people is VERY successful in his industry and doesn’t really gamble, but he finds the fact that I bet on the first coach fired to be intriguing so he tailed my picks this year. When Rhule was fired he got all excited. When I explained to him we broke even he said “Isn’t it more fun to have just one guy?” And this was a realization that he and I had a disconnect about what we were doing as he was having fun and I was betting to make money.
Just wanting to make money betting is not enough. One of my favorite things about Discord and my Substack is that it has allowed me to build relationships with subscribers, other bettors, and handicappers. There are a number of other handicappers (read as people who put out picks) that I have spoken to and, unfortunately, many of them have approaches to gambling that will cost them in the long run (e.g., poor bankroll management1, no repeatable process, too emotional, too cocky). Some come to me (and others) for advice and I am always happy to share my view about what works for me or what I have seen work for others. I have hope for those people as they realize they do not know everything, but way too many seem to think they have it all figured out.
Always remember, only about 5% of gamblers are profitable long-term and to get there it takes a lot of time, effort, patience, and discipline. Failure is a part of it for many gamblers, it certainly was for me, so if you are really in this game to make money long-term you have to have the right expectations, mindset, and approach.
Some fun trends:
Per Dave Tuley, favorites are 54-37-1 SU, but 37-52-3 ATS
Per Dave Tuley, unders are 56-37-1, with primetime unders being 13-6
Per Fox Sports, in week 7’s favorites tend to cover, since 2015: 50-45-3 ATS (52.6%) and 70-27-1 SU (72.2%)
While it seems the Bills and Eagles are the best teams, at this point last year, the clear top two teams in the NFL were the Cardinals and the Bills…..so yeah, let’s hold off on long-term conclusions
The Vikings are the only non-NFC East team that is over .500 in the NFC
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This week we have 4 more teams on byes with the Bills, Rams, Vikings, and Eagles getting a week off.
Week 7
Game 1: Saints @ Cardinals (Thursday 8:15 pm) -2u - good lord this got blown up in a 1 minute game time span with the two pick-sixes, including one that hit the WR right in the hands, then chest, the defenders’ hands.
Game 2: Falcons @ Bengals (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS this season; only 4 teams have gone 7-0 since 1978
Per Football Outsiders, the Falcons have the best rushing offense in the NFL
Per Warren Sharp, the Bengals have given up 22 points in the 3rd quarter of their last 14 games
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Atlanta +7 (-125)
My 2 cents - Marcus Mariotta was fantastic last week against a beat-up 49ers defense as he only had 1 incompletion and accounted for 3 TDs. It can’t be understated how good Arthur Smith has schemed this offense and how different it is from what all the other teams are running so each week they give just very different looks. They are really fun to watch. I have to be honest, every now and then my model surprises me and this week is one of those weeks as it rates the Bengals as the 5th best team in the NFL; mostly off the back of their defensive performances. I am not sure the Falcons can make it 7 straight covers.
Game 3: Lions @ Cowboys (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Per Matt Holleran, the last 4 QBs to go against the Lions all had close to 90+ QB ratings and combined for 8 TDs
The Cowboys leads the league in sacks; the Lions have the least.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dallas -7 (-105)
My 2 cents - The first half of last week’s loss to the Eagles was exactly what every Cowboys fan feared when Dak got hurt, but now he is back! I know lots of people are pointing to the Cowboys’ early 4th down play2 as evidence of terrible coaching, but can we also talk about the adjustments they made to improve and get back in the game? If Detroit makes this a game, it’s because their gap scheme is going to hurt the Cowboys who struggle to stop the run. If the Cowboys can build a lead then Goff will come into the game and Dallas D will eat him up. If the Cowboys are a good team, they should blow the Lions out as my model says they have BY FAR the worst D in the NFL.
Game 4: Colts @ Titans (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
The Colts have trailed at halftime in their last 8 games; all 3 Colts wins this season have been comebacks
The Colts were 10 for 15 on 3rd down vs the Jags last week
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Tennesse Titans -2 (-115)
My 2 cents - Matt Ryan played really well and my Colts to win the AFC South ticket is back to being alive and well! The reverse fixture took place three weeks ago. In that game, the Titans came out and quickly built up a 24-3 lead halfway through the 2nd quarter and cruised to a 24-17 victory. In that game, the Titans were able to hold JT to a 2.1 YPC on 20 carries, while Derrick Henry went for 114 on 22 carries and a TD. The Jags are coming off the bye and I need to see the Colts be good again before I start to believe - give me the Titans and the Titans 1H.
Game 5: Packers @ Washington (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Weather Report - It should be wet and rainy
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Washington +5 (-116)
My 2 cents - I was worried before the year about Rodgers not having a WR corps that could be competitive and this is worse than I thought. The Jets worked them all over the field so in the last 3 weeks they should have lost to Zappe, and then lost to the Jets and Giants. Not great Bob. There are some compelling advanced stats that show the Packers are playing no better than the Bears. Washington is not a good team either and they will be starting Taylor Heinicke for the injured Wentz. Are we sure this is any amount of a downgrade? I do not and the Packers seem broken, let’s go Washington.
Game 6: Buccaneers @ Panthers (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Carolina +13 (-110)
My 2 cents - This will be a get-right game for the Bucs, but it should not be lost on anyone that it was not a fluke that they lost to the Steelers as they were roundly beaten. I rewatched their last two games and had two main takeaways. 1) I think they didn’t take the Steelers seriously and didn’t prepare enough; 2) I think Brady is starting to get gun-shy about getting hit. I do not think #1 will be a problem again but given #2, I wonder if the pressure of Brian Burns is going to have a big effect in this game. One other fun thing to note, last week the Bucs ran the same 2pt conversion play they did vs the Packers earlier in the year; neither worked. Obviously, the Panthers dumped CMC last night so I am not high on this so I am going to pass.
Game 7: Giants @ Jaguars (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Cleveta did some analysis that seems to indicate that the Giants are the luckiest team in the NFL and the Jags are 2nd unlikeliest so far this season
Per Football Outsiders, the Giants are the 2nd worst 5-1 team per DVOA since 1980
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on NYG +3 (-110)
My 2 cents - I know the Giants have a good record and are likely to make the playoffs given their weak schedule and I CANNOT wait to bet against them in the playoffs. Hey Giants fan, I hope you enjoy Wink Martindale while you have him because he should be a Head Coach next year. That all said, have they beaten a good team yet? I like the Ravens (my model LOVES the Ravens), but really the rest of their wins have been suspect. I think this line is a case of overvaluing the Giants and undervaluing the Jags. This line should be -6 to me.
Verdict - This line seems like they are BEGGING us to bet on the Giants and I know my model is on that side, but I like the Jaguars in this game and will be betting on them.
Game 8: Browns @ Ravens (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Weather Report - should be wet and rainy
Stats that might matter -
The Ravens have had a double-digit lead in every game and blown 3 double-digit 4th-quarter leads; they have a -42 point differential in the 4th quarter.
With Lamar at QB, the Ravens are 37-20-2 ATS in the 1H; lost last week by the hook
Per ActionNetwork, Ravens vs. Browns all-time: 32-12 SU, 26-19-1 ATS; including 4-0 vs Stefanski
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Ravens -6.5 (-111)
My 2 cents - I was completely wrong on the Browns last week. I thought their physical run game would overmatch the Pats and good lord they looked bad. The big thing now one is talking about is how bad the Browns’ defense has been (my model has them as the 27th best, EPA/play says they are 31st). I think Michael Lombardi is right, the Ravens are blowing leads late because they can’t throw when it matters and especially when they know you have to throw it. I know some folks think the Browns will keep this close, but I honestly do not see it, Ravens big.
Game 9: Jets @ Broncos (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Weather Report - could be windy and rainy late in the game
Stat that might matter - Per Joe Osborne, going back to Oct 21, 2021, Broncos games are 13-4 to the under
Titanic Model Output - 1u on NY Jets pk (-110)
My 2 cents -The Broncos are AWFUL. Thank you to The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia for compiling the stats - 29th in EPA/drive, 30th in success rate, 31st in PPG and 31st in points/drive. I thought Sauce Gardner was too grabby coming out of Cinci and that he would be a flag machine, but some people I trust told me he might just be the best player in the draft and boy was I wrong. He is phenomenal. The Jets DL absolutely dominated their game last week and I expect them to do it again here. I am TERRIFIED that my model likes the Jets here as ALL the money is on them so with repedation I am going with the model, but I will not be touching them outside of that one bet.
Game 10: Texans @ Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Stats that might matter - The Raiders’ 4 losses are by a combined 14 points
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Houston +7 (-115)
My 2 cents - I know the Raiders keep losing close games and so it is reasonable to believe they are better than their record, but something seems off. They really should be better than they are. You can see a real difference with them when they commit to the run. Texans continue to be super frisky and you have to always be weary of back door covers with these teams so I am going with the model.
Game 11: Seahawks @ Chargers (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Line movement - This line started as Seahawks +7 and has been bet down to +5
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Something to keep in mind is that Taylor Bertolet will likely be the kicker in this game for the Chargers. The Chargers never have problems with kickers so this shouldn’t be a problem, right? To me, this just comes down to a few questions - Can Geno keep up this amazing performance? Can Seattle’s awful D replicate the performance from last week where they looked good? Can the Chargers’ offense find its way? Ultimately, do I trust the Chargers giving this many points in a game? I am not sure and while I want to bet on Seattle the line has moved too much so I will be passing here and will use them in exotics.
Game 12: Cheifs @ 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Kyle Shanahan as a favorite is 14-24-1, as an underdog 25-17
Per ActionNetwork, Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-6 SU and 16-4 ATS as an underdog
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on San Fran +1.5 (-102)
My 2 cents - I don’t know how to say this other than the Chiefs have a weapons problem. Outside of Kelce, is there really a reliable threat you trust in a big spot? I was super high on Skyy Moore as a rookie, but he is underwhelming, to say the least. On the other side, we have a 49ers team with just mounting injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball (per The Athletic, seven of their defensive starters didn’t start or finish the game). I expect loads of money to pour in on the Cheifs as folks fade the 49ers, so to me, and the model, that side has the value, go 49ers.
Game 13: Steelers @ Dolphins (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Titanic Model Output - pass
My 2 cents - I still maintain Mike McDaniel might be my new fav coach, but Tomlin is the best one. How he got his team to win last week and do some relatively convincingly is magic. If you pick against his team in survivor pools, you are asking for it. Now let’s talked about the Miami offense, for as much speed as they have, where are all these explosive plays? Maybe it is because the OL is struggling given they keep losing their QBs early in games. I am going to pass.
We are just over 2 weeks away from the US mid-term elections. Make sure you are prepared to make some money betting on the races!
All The Plays
Model Plays:
Note: I am not playing all the below. I continue to implore you to read my diatribe above for the reasoning.
2u plays
Saints +1.5 - loss
1u plays
Dallas -7
Titans -2
Washington +5
Ravens -6.5
Jets pick’em
Texans +7
0.5u plays
Falcons +7
Carolina +13
Giants +3
49ers +1.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Loss - 0.5u 6pt teaser -120 on Denver +10.5 / New Orleans +7.5
Loss - 0.6u under 21.5 1H (-120)
1.4u on Jacksonville -2.5 (-140 - bought the half point)
0.5u on Ravens 1H -3.5 (-115)
0.5u on Titans 1H -1 (-110)
0.25 on Cowboys team total over 27.5 (-135)
0.5u 6.5pt Teaser +141 on Dallas -0.5 / Ravens pk / Patriots -2.5
0.5u 6.5pt Teaser +141 on Washington +11.5 / 49ers +8 / Patriots -2.5
0.5u 7pt Teaser3 +120 on Falons +14 / Seahawks +12 / Texans +14
1u parlay +183 on Jaguars -160 / Titans -135
0.5u parlay +208 on Texans +7 / Patriots -375 / Cowboys -330
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +977 on Seahawks+195 / Steelers +265
Player Props4
Loss - 0.25u on Chris Olave to score a TD (+185)
0.5u Derrick Henry over 89.5 (-115)
0.25u on Amari Cooper under 55.5 receiving yards (-115)
0.25u on Daniel Jones under 194.5 passing yards (-115)
0.25u on A D/ST TD (NYJ/ DEN) will be scored +210
0.25u on Dameon Pierce over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
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Survivor Thoughts
Lost our season-long one last week in the blood bath but survived the in-season contest so the running list in the footnotes will be for this contest going forward. Here are the ones I am passing on:
Dallas - Short week vs a team coming off a bye with a QB that hasn’t played in a while so I will pass
Ravens - They have had a double-digit lead in every game and blown half of them
Raiders - What about them inspires a ton of confidence?
Dolphins - I, for one, have learned my lesson not to screw with Mike Tomlin5
My options are going to be:
Buccaneers - The Panthers are awful and they just traded away their best player. The Bucs are coming off an embarrassing loss where they look unprepared. They should smash
Patriots - Justin Fields has often looked overmatched in the NFL and is now going against Bill Belichik’s defense
I am going with the Buccaneers as my pick for Week 76
Edit note: the original post didn’t have the survivor pick listed
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
This is the number 1 no-no if you want to be successful long-term. You have to build a durable bankroll management strategy that can be consistently applied in good times and bad times. I know of one “VIP capper” who claimed loads of success for the better part of 18 months, but if you studied him carefully (I did for 3 months preceding what I am about to say happened) it was clear that his bankroll management was poor as he took way too much risk and often chased when things turned bad. Chasing is NEVER a good idea and he followed up that “successful run” with a 2.5-month period where he lost over 100 units.
I was baffled by this at the moment and assumed they were confused and thought they got the first down and the explanation was quite interesting. If you watch a replay, you will notice the down judge is past the line to gain when she starts to walk to mark the ball and she drifts to where the line judge is short of the line. When they marked it short McCarthy asked her (the down judge) about it she intimated that they spoke to NY and they said he was short which would mean he could not challenge it. Now the play they called was baffling and inexcusable.
I am calling this the backdoor cover special
Some props I like and will wager on personally, but are not available right now: Joe Burrow to throw a pick, DeAndre Swift over rushing yards
Get ready for me to copy and paste this next week when the Eagles play the Steelers
In Week 5 - Bills; Week 6 - Rams;