We had a positive week last week and a great start to this week. Let’s build on last week and keep it going!
How I use props
This week I wanted to hit on something that someone emailed about (thank you for the question and folks should always feel free to email me questions). Someone noticed last week that while my model and I bet on the Saints I also bet on Josh Jacobs over rushing yards and that person thought it was odd. That person is 100% right.
As you all have seen, I am not usually a big prop bettor as I only really devote about 1-1.5u of risk to it each week. That said, I tend to use props in two ways and this is a perfect depiction of both:
As a risk-taking measure based on my read of the game
As a hedging measure based on what could go wrong
Let’s use last week as a perfect example. My model and I liked the Saints, but you may remember that I also bet on the over. My thesis for the game was that neither defense would really be able to stop the other team’s offense and we would get a shoot-out. That clearly didn’t materialize as the Raiders got shut out, but let’s analyze the two techniques I mentioned above.
As a risk-taking measure - I have been really clear that I think the Raiders’ offense works best when handing Jacobs the ball. If they were going to score as I thought, he would get the ball.
As a hedging measure - While I liked the Saints, they were the underdog in the game (the line was only 1.5). If the Raiders were going to win this game I thought it would be because, as described above, Jacobs would lead their offense down the field so if things went well for the Raiders and Jacobs it would hedge my Saints’ risk.
I hope this helps folks to maybe think a bit differently about prop bets.
This week we have 6 teams on byes with the Browns, Cowboys, Broncos, Giants, Steelers, and 49ers getting a week off.
Week 9
Some interesting trends:
Per Field Yates, the NFC East’s record of 23-8 and a winning percentage of .742 is the highest through 8 weeks since 1970
Per Ben Baldwin and his robots, there are 3 teams that are head and shoulders above everyone else - the Eagles, Bills, and Chiefs1
Underdogs are 68-52-2 ATS
Unders are 69-52-2
‘Dogs of 4+ pts are 39-22 ATS
Unders are 27-12-1 in divisional games this season
This week’s games:
Game 1: Eagles @ Texans (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Game 2: Chargers @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Falcons are the 3rd wost defense on 3rd down, giving up a conversion 47.1% of the time
The Falcons have 2nd worst defensive DVOA in the NFL (including being 30th against the pass) and are the 2nd worst D by my TitanicModel’s calculations
While the Chargers’ offense is middling in DVOA, they have a top-10 passing offense
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Atlanta +3 (-111)
My 2 cents - Chargers’ defense is absolutely atrocious2 and I am really not sure that the bye week fixes the issues I have seen. Side note, I personally love when teams hire a coach that is “a mastermind” on one side of the ball yet their team is consistently bad at that skill (e.g., Matt Rhule and the Panthers’ dismal offense). Then they also have just lost their best play-making WR for “at least 4 weeks”. That all said, are we sure the Falcons can stop anyone who throws the ball?
Verdict - My model likes the Falcons, but I am going with the Chargers -3 (-105) as I do not think the Falcons will be able to stop the Chargers and I also love the over.
Game 3: Dolphins @ Bears (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter - Miami’s defense is 25th by DVOA; 27th by my model’s calculations
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Look I know everyone will be throwing their flowers at the Dolphins for their offensive performance last week but let’s remember a few things. 1) The Lions' defense is the worst in the NFL. 2) Offense is not the only side of the ball. Within their last few games, the ‘Phins have given up 40 points to the Jets and just let the Lions score 27 on almost 400 yards! That has to be concerning if you are holding Miami futures tickets as at some point they will have to figure out how to stop Mahomes and Allen. Also, how many times can Tua underthrow his WR deep but they catch the ball? If the Dolphins are good they should destroy the Bears, but I am not sure they are good so pass.
Game 4: Panthers @ Bengals (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Panthers did not force a Falcons punt in the 2nd half last week
Per Football Outsiders, these are two of the worst 5 offenses in the NFL
The Bengals are 3rd in 3rd down conversion percentage on offense while the Panthers are last
The Bengals are 7th best in offensive RedZone TD percentage with 65.2% while the Panthers are near the bottom of the league at 47.4%
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Bengals -7 (-120)
My 2 cents - PJ Walker has played legitimately well the last couple of weeks, BUT everyone is focusing on the missed kicks as the reason they lost (and covered) last week. Conveniently they are forgetting that PJ had to complete a 68-yard DIME otherwise they were going to lose and the Falcons cover. I know folks keep talking about how good the Panthers’ defense is but my model only thinks they are 19th best and Football Outsiders has them 18th. For the Bengals, I was dead wrong on how I thought that game would play out Monday night3. I really thought the Bengals would be able to move the ball, but their OL was just dominated. While I am concerned about the Bengals’ OL against Burns and Brown this seems like a public narrative game. I think my model is right and I am going with the Bengals and I like the under.
Game 5: Packers @ Lions (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Packers are 5-5 vs Detroit over the last 5 years
The Lions haven’t scored in the 2nd half in 3 straight games and haven’t scored in the 4th quarter in 4 of their last 5.
The Lions are the 3rd worst defense in the Redzone (giving up a TD 73% of the time) and are the worst defense on 3rd down giving up a conversion 50.6% of the time
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I know this is going to sound weird but I actually think Aaron Rodgers is playing pretty well and that his team around him sucks. On the other hand, they go against a defense that is indescribably bad. I honestly am not sure if they could cover me. Yes, they fired their DB coach, but I do not think that is going to make a lot of difference. Ultimately this is a game the Packers badly need to win as they play vs Dallas, Tennessee, and Philly in their next 3 games. I grabbed GB -3 earlier this week, that line is gone so this will be a pass.
Game 6: Colts @ Patriots (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Colts have trailed at halftime in their last 10 games
The Pats’ offense only created 3.8 yards per play last week and 6 of their points came on drives where they did not even get a first down
The Pats allow 3rd down conversions 43.4 % of the time (7th worst) and the Colts allow it at a 32.7% rate (4th best)
Titanic Model Output - 1u on the Colts +6 (-110)
My 2 cents - Okay look, Zach Wilson was awful last week, but the Jets were in that game and it was only 19-10 going into the 4th quarter so that tells me that we really need to keep an eye on the Patriots as I think they are worse than their record indicates. It is clear the Pats do not trust Mac Jones and his OL continues to underwhelm. If the Pats do not play better they will lose to this Indy team who saw a little resurgence last week. Speaking of Indy, they easily could have won that game and Sam Ehlinger certainly didn’t play badly and Pittman had a couple of huge drops. The Colts’ season is on the line and they fired the OC4; I like the Colts to win this game and this to be low scoring.
Game 7: Bills @ Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Jets +11.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - The Bills just absolutely rolled the Packers last week. I know they didn’t cover and the game was a 10-point game but if you watched that you know that was nowhere close to that; they really just stopped playing in the 4th quarter. One thing to keep an eye on with the Bills is that their secondary is starting to hit a point with injuries that it could start to be a concern. As I covered above in the Pats-Colts game, the Jets were right in that gave last week even with a terrible performance by Zach Wilson. If he doesn’t turn the ball over left and right, I think they win that game. The Jets need to shorten this game by running the ball. I think this is too many points for a divisional game so give me the points.
Game 8: Vikings @ Washington (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Football Outsiders, the Vikings have the 4th best rush offense and the Commies have the 2nd best rush defense
The Vikings are the worst defense in the RedZone giving up a 78% TD rate
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Did anyone watch that Washington win over the Colts and think “that looks like a well-run team”? I sure did not. They really should have lost to Sam Ehlinger in his first career start and would have if not for the Colts absolutely falling apart down the stretch of that game. Washington takes on the most disrespected team in the league. People can keep calling the 6-1 Vikings frauds all they want but all they do is win every week they don’t play in primetime. I really liked their trade for TJ Hockenson, but then I saw Warren Sharp’s analysis and I LOVED it. One fear I have is that the Vikings could have a letdown looking ahead to @Buf and vs Dal in the next 2 weeks. I love this game has moved back to -3 so I will be betting on it.
Come hang out at the free Gamblers Paradise Discord where we talk all things sports and gambling. This week is the Breeders Cup Classic so make sure you come and watch the sport of kings with us!
Game 9: Raiders @ Jaguars (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Raiders are the 2nd worst defense in the RedZone giving up a 74% TD rate
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Jacksonville +1.5 (-108)
My 2 cents - Last week I was on the Saints as I thought they would win (which got there for us) but I was also on the over (which did not) as I thought the Raiders would stick to running Jacobs and move the ball on the Saints, in reality, Josh McDaniels and his OC Mick Lombardi had their pants pulled down by Dennis Allen. These are two teams that just keep finding ways to lose. For the Jags, it is hard not to start to be concerned with Lawrence’s play, especially his situational awareness. It really seems like the coaching staff should be taking the ball out of his hands in some of these important situations. I know my model loves the Jags as it thinks they are the team that really should be favored here so I am going to rock with it.
Game 10: Seahawks @ Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stat that might matter -
No team goes for it on 4th down more than the Cards, having done it 24 times this year, converting at a 54% rate
In offensive yards per play, Seattle is tied for 5th, Arizona 30th
The Cardinals have won only 1 of their last 9 home games, and that 1 was Andy Dalton throwing 2 pick sixes a couple of weeks ago
Titanic Model Output - 3u on Seattle +2 (-110)
My 2 cents - I know folks will focus on their win over the Giants and point to the two really bad fumbles by the Giants’ KR, but will not realize the Seahawks D was outstanding as they really only gave up 7 points in that game5. I know this game screams “overvalued team vs undervalued team” and the professionals have been on the Cards a bunch of times this week, BUT have you seen this team play? They are really bad. Could Kyler’s body language be any worse? He seems so disinterested in what is happening. I think the Seahawks are for real and I think their D will mirror what the Vikings did by keeping Kyler “in the well” where he can’t see and makes mistakes. Obviously, I am concerned about this seeming too easy and going against the sharps, but one of these teams is well coached and one is not, fuck it, let's go Seahawks.
Game 11: Rams @ Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Weather Report - There could be some rain
Stat that might matter -
The Rams’ 4 losses are to the Bills, Cowboys, and 49ers (twice)
The Bucs have losses against the Steelers, Packers, and Panthers
Rams are 3-0 vs the Brady Bucs
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on LA Rams +3 (-115)
My 2 cents - Man, before this season this matchup would have been circled as one of the sexiest of the year, and instead, it is two deeply flawed teams. The Bucs have extra rest here, but are they ever going to run the ball? Peter Schrager is 100% right when he says “They can’t run the ball and they don’t even try”. On the other side of their ball do not underestimate how impactful it is for the Bucs to be missing Shaq Barrett for the remainder of this year, though they are going against a Rams team that really can’t make explosive plays.
Game 12: Titans @ Cheifs (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Titans are 5-1 vs Andy Reid including their demolishing 27-3 last year in their last 6 games, and 9-2 all time.
Tennessee gives up a 3rd down conversion only 25.6% of the time (best in the NFL) while the Chiefs’ offense has the best 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL at 52%
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Titans +12.5 (-110) ← this assumes Tannehill plays, if he does not then this is canceled and this is a Pass.
My 2 cents - The Cheifs are coming off the bye and Andy Reid’s personal record “is an incredible 20-3”. So yeah, that is tough to bet against. That said, I still find the Chiefs’ offense to be not nearly as effective if Kelce is held back. On the GM Shuffle podcast, Michael Lombardi said that Vrabel might as well of handed the Texans his playbook last week as everyone knew he was going to be running the ball right at them and they could do nothing about it and Michael was 100% right. That was pure domination. Look, I know going with my model is only going to make me feel stupid by the 2nd half of this game but are we sure the Chiefs’ offense is going to be able to move the ball on this defense? I honestly do not think so; give me the points.
Game 13: Ravens @ Saints (Monday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
With Lamar at QB, the Ravens are 37-22-2 ATS in the 1H; lost the last 3 weeks, 2 by the hook
The Ravens will be without WR Rashod Bateman for the rest of the season, but they are starting to get healthy with Tyus Bowser and David Ojabo6 back
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Saints +2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Look, I know we have lost the last 3 weeks on Ravens 1H bets, but I am doing it again this week, and here is why: We lost 2 weeks by the hook and last week the Ravens went into Buccaneers territory 4 times (twice into the RedZone) in the first half and came away with a total of 3 points. Yes, I am betting it first half and thinking the Saints will win in the 2nd half. This is also the first game of 8 straight that the Ravens play against teams that are not above .500. The Ravens have added Roquan Smith and while I think that will pay dividends, I am not sure they will see those this week.
Help support this newsletter by choosing to donate $5/ month or $50/ year. We are entirely reader-supported and would love to keep giving this content for free!
All The Plays
Model Plays: - make sure you are reading the above.
3u play
Seahawks +2
2u plays
Bengals -7
Jaguars +1.5
1u Plays
Colts +6
Jets +11.5
Titans +12.5
0.5u Plays
Texans +14 - win
Falcons +3
Rams +3
Saints +2.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
0.5u on LAC / Det over 49.5
0.25u on Sea / Ari under 49.5 (-110)
1u on LAC -3 (-105)
0.5u on Vikings -3 (-115)
0.25u on Ravens 1H (-130)
Pending - 1.15u 6pt teaser -115 on Seahawks +8 / Colts +11.5
1.2u 6pt teaser -120 on Saints +8.5 / Bengals -1
0.6u 6pt teaser -120 on Saints +8.5 / Jags +7.5
0.5u 7pt teaser +127 on Saints7 +8.5 / Rams +10 / Colts +13
1u parlay +150 on GB -180 / Vikings -165
0.5u parlay +293 on Seattle +110 1H / Bills -6.5 IH -115
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +630 on Colts +215 / Rams +132 - NOTE this went out originally without the odds
Player Props8
Win - 0.25u on Dallas Goedert ATD +175
0.25u on Justin Hebert over 282.5 passing yards (+105)
0.25u on over 5.5 sacks in CAR/CIN (-115)
0.25u on Lazard ATD (+145)
0.25u Josh Allen to throw a pick (+105)
0.5u on Christian Kirk over 53.5 yards receiving (-120)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I highly recommend following Ben on Twitter and at minimum checking out the thread I linked to here. He posts a new one each week that is updated for the prior week and it always has some interesting analysis, such as this one that shows the results of every defensive drive.
While DVOA has them at 16th, my model has them at the 24th best defense
Also, how much do we want to take into account the fact the team found out that Adam Zimmer passed away before the game?
This really didn’t fit in the above, but local Colts beat writer (for the Athletic) Zak Keefer made a phenomenal point on Twitter this week that we all really underestimated the loss that Nick Sirianni would be when he left the Colts. While Reich calls the plays (something I honestly didn’t realize), the OC does a lot of the game planning and their offense has taken a big step backward since Sirianni left for the Eagles.
They gave up 14 total, but 7 of those came when Tyler Lockett fumbled on their own 2-yard line. Also, Lockett dropped a wide-open TD pass so that made up for the 2 fumbles by the Giants
Do not underestimate getting Ojabo. He is incredibly raw but going into the draft last year I had a connection tell me that his scouts believed that in 5 years Ojabo would be the best pass rusher in the draft. Here is a clip of what he did to Georgia last year.
Note that the Colts line is not up everywhere so getting this out using a site that is costing me a point on Monday night
I also like Mariotta to throw a pick +140, Ken Walker over 87.5 rushing/receiving yards -115, and Brady to throw a pick +110