Changes I am making
Okay, I previewed in my TNF newsletter that I was making some changes and they are long overdue. I apologize for waiting this long to do them.
Frankly, Last season sucked and, as I have said in the past, I was doing WAY too much and it backfired spectacularly with shitty results. This year, I swung way too far the other way by just following the models with zero amount of overlay and then piling more risk on top of it with other plays.
So here is the plan going forward:
The format of picks will not materially change
You will see they now say “Titanic’s Action” rather than “Model Suggestion” and those will be the plays I am personally playing. The big difference is they will be informed by the models but come directly from me so if they suck, there are no bots to hide behind.
The action will be anything from 0.25u up to 3u.
Game Notes and the rest of the newsletter will look and feel the same and I will still have exotics at the bottom
You should expect in the neighborhood of 8-12u of risk each week on the games, with about 1u in props. Could be more, could be less, but that is going to be the general range. For example, I am starting with 7u of risk today, and plan to add about 3-4u of risk in teasers, parlays, and props over the weekend.
This may come out on Friday, this can come out on Saturday, it could even come out on Sunday. I am also likely going to go back to how I used to do it with exotics coming out on Sunday morning as that really gives me some flexibility to be nimble.
When action comes on Sunday a new post will be sent with that action AND this newsletter that is posted will be updated
I will never cancel a bet, but it is possible I get information by Sunday morning that changes my opinions of a breakdown I gave so just do not be surprised if I add more action to a game on Sunday morning.
Why am I doing this? Well as I said in my Lessons Learned newsletter, you need to understand why you are winning and why you are losing. My model was not being selective enough and was taking too much risk. On top of that, I was not doing an effective job of helping you all be responsible in your action because I was doing everything on Friday, I was leaving money and information on that table. There is no reason to wait until next summer to change so let’s get it fixed right now!
-T
Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment this week:
Denver, Detroit, San Fran, and Jacksonville all have the week off this week
Favorites are 78-42 SU and 61-51-8 ATS
Home teams are 65-55 SU and 59-53-8 ATS
Unders are 72-50-1 and 20-7 for primetime games
With the Panthers’ win last week, there are no longer any undefeated or winless teams ATS
Per Gilles Gallant, plus money INT props are now 53-39 +26.8u on the season after going 5-5 +0.9u in Week 8
Per the Action Network, Favorites in international games are 31-10-1 SU and 27-15 ATS
Per Action Network, Dan Campbell is 33-21 ATS. His 61.1% winning percentage is the highest of the 115 coaches who have coached at least 50 games since 1990
Some Week 8 / Week 9 / team specific notes1:
Per Dave Tuley, in week 8, favorites went 11-4 SU (8-4-3 ATS); home teams went 9-7 SU (7-6-3 ATS); Overs led 9-7, but primetime unders swept 3-0
Per Adam Schefter, so far in every game this season the Raiders have scored less than 21 points, rushed for less than 100 yards, or had at least 1 turnover
Joe Osborne, as he does often, has a tweet that is PACKED with really interesting trends that talk about the Chiefs’ struggles in the 4th quarter, the Giants’ poor scoring at him, how great the Ravens’ D has been, the improvement of the Eagles’ run D, among others.
The Colts are the only team in the NFL to score more than 20 points in every game this year
DaRon Bland of the Cowboys has 3 pick 6’s. The NFL record for a season is 4 (which has been done twice) and he is currently tied with CeeDee Lamb for the most TDs by a Cowboys player this year
The Panthers’ average game on the road is a 36.25 - 20.5 loss, at home it is an 18-15 loss.
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
The games:
Breeders Cup
Saturday, November 4th is one of the biggest horse racing days of the year with the Breeders Cup being run in Southern California.
My initial betting card will be published this evening and will be updated with scratches tomorrow. Here is a link to those picks!
Other Plays
The below was updated at 10:07 AM ET….We are locked and loaded. Let’s get it!
New bets
0.5u on 1Q Houston Texans -0.5 (+125)
Teasers
0.5u 6pt Teaser Seattle +12.5 / Arizona +19 (-110)
0.5u 6pt teaser Eagles-Cowboys o41 / Chargers-Jets u45.5 / NYG-Raiders o31.5 (+150)
0.5u 7pt Teaser Panthers +9 / Cowboys +10 / Bills +9.5 (+120)
Parlays
1u Atlanta -180 / Houston -150 (+159)
0.25u Packers -210 / Texas -3 / Falcons -185 (+334)
0.25u Panthers +110 / Cowboys +140 / Bills +120 (+1009)
Props
0.25u Deshaun Watson over 0.5 INTs (+120)
0.25u Lamar Jackson over 0.5 INTs (+102)
0.25u DK Metcalf any time TD (+240)
0.25u Dak Prescott any time TD (+550)
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I highly recommend giving all these accounts a follow as I just cherry-pick info, but they have tons of really great information