Mexico Open - Recap
To say my PGA Tour card was underwhelming last week would be quite an understatement:
Nicolai barely showed up with any amount of a game, especially on the greens
Hisatsune’s lack of length was not something he was able to overcome
JJ Spaun was atrocious
SH Kim was doing fine until he put an 8 on the board
Carson Young was fine, but never came close to being in the mix
So yeah, really a poor showing by me. That said, if you read the footnotes last week you would have noticed the comment about Sami Valimaki….Well if you played that, you would have had at least a fun weekend and we cashed both matchups and our two longer shots Top 20 bets.
Something else I am always droning on about is the Gamblers Paradise Discord - Well in the last 2 weeks, we have his Patrick Cantlay FRL 25-1 and, now, EVR FRL at 50-1! Make sure you are joining up so that you do NOT miss out!! On top of that, we had Sami Valimakie at 100-1 at 0.16u risk. Midway through the round yesterday the odds were -105 to -115 (Lower was next at 60-1) and we grabbed a hedge on Knapp so we cashed another 5u of profit with that play!!
As we end February, the Discord’s tracked bets have cashed 56u of profit!!!
Can you afford to not join??
Cognizant Classic
The courses:
The PGA Tour has wrapped up its West Coast swing, taken a quick trip south of the border, and now heads straight into the Florida swing! The first stop will be PGA National Resort and Spa in Palm Beach Gardens Florida1, a course that plays to a par 71 across ~7,100 yards. If you want to get a feel for the course, Golf Stays and Plays has a 9-minute video that is a flyover of the course.
While you might take a look at that yardage and think this course is a short breeze, you are incorrect. This course is anything but easy as it boasts small landing areas, tight dog legs, and penal rough. When I say this course is tough, last year Ron Klos (PGASplits101) laid out a bunch of great facts about this course:
The toughest non-major course at +1.53 per round
15 water holes - 8 holes with approach hazards; most water balls past 3 years
Highest double-bogey or worse % on Tour
"Bear Trap" holes 15-17 play at +0.212
This course was designed by Tom and George Fazio and got a facelift by Jack Nicklaus on a few occasions. This course sports Bermudagrass from tee to green and is it notable that this year the 10th hole has been changed from a Par 4 to a Par 5, hence the Par 71.
Having spent a fair bit of time in that area and having played this course last year, I can attest that the wind is absolutely something that you must take into account and that this course is a terror as there are seemingly water hazards on every hole and while the course does not have a ton of bunkers they are very well placed.
Now if you have never heard of the “Cognizant Classic” before, that is because this is the first time this tournament has been called this! For the last 40 years, the tournament has been called the Honda Classic. One of the reasons Honda dropped their name off this tournament is that the fields were atrocious, especially given its place in the calendar now that we have signature / elevated events.
That said, many many PGA Tour professionals call this area home and a lot of them are showing up this week to take on a course that they would admit they do not really like. The field is very legitimate with 5 top 25 and 20 of the top 50 in the OWGR including several former champions including Rory, Sepp, Sungjae, Rickie, and Henley.
While having course experience is always big on the PGA Tour, we do not have to look too far back from guys doing well their first time out as Eric Cole made the playoff last year and Daniel Berger did the same thing back in 2015. As Ron Klos pointed out earlier today, every single champion going back to 2010 has missed a cut here within three years of winning so maybe course history is not the be-all and end-all as it can be in other places.
Prior results:
2023 - Chris Kirk (25-1) beat Eric Cole (125-1) in a playoff after both shot -14
2022 - Sepp Straka (125-1) became the first Austrian to win on the PGA tour when he shot -10 to beat Shane Lowry (30-1) by 1 stroke
2021 - Matt Jones (70-1) shot -12 to beat Brandon Hagy (300-1) by 5 strokes
2020 - Sungjae Im (35-1) shot -6 to beat Mackenzie Hughes (500-1) by 1 stroke.
As always, Ron Klos has a listing of the winners and their odds going back to 2010.
Last year’s first-round lead was shared between Carson Young, Billy Horschel, and Joseph Bramlett who each shot 653. Eventual winner Chris Kirk was 4 strokes back after an opening 69.
The event 72-hole record is -24 (264) which was shot by Justin Leonard in 2003. The record for wins in this event is Padraig Harrington, Mark Calcavecchia, Johnny Miller, and Jack Nicklaus who each won 2 times.
Last year’s Honda Classic saw us bank 1.3u of profit for a 14% ROI.
The bets:
As you have seen the last few weeks, one of the things I try to avoid each week is betting guys that everyone seems to be on (aka the public plays). This week is a bit more interesting as we have a better field, but yet, there are still some names that are already getting action from the public and they are Eric Cole, Benny An, and Sepp Straka.
Some of the other guys I looked hard at this week were Cole (everyone fell in love with him here last year, but that number is FAR too short for me as I have him close to 50-1), Benny (He keeps burning me but his numbers always look good in by model and even Benny is worried about Benny week), Sepp (I can’t with his game being so up and down though he has value), Henley (when you say precision and Bermuda, he is the first guy that comes to my mind), JT Poston (short course where you need to have a good short game and in the South East US? Poston is all over that), Matt Fitz (he is going to figure out his game at some point, right?), Lowry (I really wanted to bet him but my numbers on him are more than double his listed price), and Hossler (oh Beau, you break my heart).
This year has been the year of the long shots (last week’s win by Knapp at 40-1 is the shortest odds this year) and this course tends to have longer-shot winners so I am going deep down the list for some of my plays. We also do have the DPWT’s SDC Championship (link to picks) where I try to follow up our 80-1 winner last week with another win so for the Cognizant Classic I am going with about 6.4u of risk:
Outright:
0.71u Cameron Young 22-14
0.44u Sungjae Im 35-1
0.21u Doug Ghim 75-1
0.16u Adam Schenk 100-1
0.16u Matt Wallace 100-1
0.16u Ben Griffin 100-1
0.13u Michael Kim 125-1
T10 (0.25u on each):
Sungjae Im +350
Doug Ghim +650
Adam Schenk +750
Ben Griffin +800
T20
1u Cam Young +130
0.5u Sungjae Im +150
0.25u Beau Hossler +200
0.25u Doug Ghim +250
0.25u Ben Griffin +350
0.25u Matt Wallace +350
Matchups
0.33u Corey Conners over Shane Lowry -132
0.305u Tom Hoge over Brendon Todd -122
0.2875u Min Woo Lee over Shane Lowry -115
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Make sure you come to the Discord as I have already fired a parlay shot at a player I quite like this week AND I will have FRL’s and LIV picks out later this week over there (every discord play is tracked and reported weekly)!
Good luck with all your action!
If you happen to be in the area, I HIGHLY recommend going to Rocco’s Tacos which is about 5 minutes from the course
This 3 hole stretch is up there with the Green Mile at Quail Hollow, 8-10 at Pebble, and 16-18 at Muirfield Village as the toughest 3 hole stretches on the PGA Tour
They finished T29, T42 and T55 respectively
Yes, I feel like Charlie Brown with Lucy just pulling away the football but I can’t help fall for the Scam