PGA Tour - John Deere Classic
Golf Process, Travelers Recap, TPC Deere, and DFS
My Golf Process
This topic came up in my discussions with someone on the Winners Row discord (come join our discussion!!) and I thought it would be a great thing to lead off this week’s newsletter.
Gambling is both an art and a science and as much as I love my models those of you who were with me and enjoyed NFL success know that I do not always strictly stick to my models and use my views (i.e., judgmental overlay) to guide my picks in golf similarly to how I described I do it for the NFL.
Each week I run my calculations and I use that to identify what value is on the board. Most weeks I might see 6 to 8 golfers that have outright value, but as you have seen I normally dedicate about 1u of risk to the outrights so I obviously am sifting through those to identify those I personally like. Then I also use that information, as well as the calcs for T10 and T20 to build my betting card for the week.
For golf you have likely seen my rule of thumb for risk is as follows:
8-10 units of risk for normal golf tournaments
10-12 for bigger ones (e.g., Bay Hill) and
14-16 for the majors
The reason I do these is the bigger / more serious the golf tournament I am actually generally able to find more value and more options of things to bet on.
Then each week for my card I normally dedicate:
1u for outrights
1u for T10
2-3u for T20
Remainder for H2H’s, Make/Miss cuts, etc.
The reason I did even the lower end of 8 this week, which was then reduced to a little over 5 with withdrawals, is that there was just not that much value on the board and some of the value I saw was very slight or I didn’t personally like. For example Brendan Steele showed value at outright, T10 and T20, but I personally didn’t like his setup so I only used him for T20 and frankly I shouldn’t have even done that.
Travelers Championship - Recap
Another weekend and another profit!!! Since I tore down and moved to v2.0 we have had 7 straight profitable weeks.
As I have said before and will say again, my goal each week is to turn a profit, especially driven by T10, T20 and H2H’s. If I can do that and do that consistently we will eventually hit some outright winners and that will boost our numbers over the year.
As I said last week I didn’t love this tournament and felt it wasn’t going to be great. We started with just over 8u of risk and after Koepka grabbed the Saudi money and Im pulled out we were left with just over 5u and we returned a 42% ROI. While I know some might be disappointed given the last few weeks, I promise you this is more the norm and 42% ROI week in and week out will leave us with a FAT bank roll by the time we hit the President’s Cup in September.
I am proud of the results we are getting and I hope they continue!
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The John Deere Classic
Well we didn’t get to 4 in a row, but let’s start a new win streak!!
This week the PGA Tour heads to Illinois’s TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. This course plays 7,257 yards and is a Pat 71. Expect to see a winning score right around the -20 mark.
With Berger pulling out and the gap week between this and the British Open this field is NOT good - There are no Top 50 players in the field. So what does that mean for us?!? That means I am going to be holding back on risking a ton on any one bet, but will be spreading our action around a bit on some longer odds knowing if we hit 1 we profit for that bet type and if we hit 2, we profit a lot.
EDIT NOTE: Pendrith and Day have withdrawn prior to the tournament so below has been updated accordingly and you will see those edits with strike through.
Let’s get to this week’s dance card (about
8.5u 7u of risk):
Outright (0.25u on each):
Charles Howell III +3300
Alex Smalley +6600
Taylor Pendrith +8000- VOID
T10 (0.25u on each):
Charles Howell III +400
JT Poston +550
Doug Ghim +600
0.5u on Charles Howell III +188
0.5u on JT Poston +240
0.5u on Doug Ghim +275
0.25u on Kevin Streelman +260
0.25u on Anirban Lahiri 280
0.25u on Taylor Pendrith +300- VOID
0.25u on Mark Hubbard +350
1.3u on Nate Lashley over Matt Wallace -130
0.65u on Jason Day over Christiaan Bezuidenhout -130- VOID
0.65u on Cameron Davis over Chez Reavie -130
0.6u on JT Poston over John Huh -120
0.525 on Taylor Pendrith over Nick Taylor -105- VOID
0.5u on Anirban Lahiri over Martin Laird +109
0.25u on Cameron Champ over Adam Svensson +130
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds that are live at the time of publication.
If you want to come hang out and chat during the tournament come to:
Some week’s I drop some of my picks early there, but really this is just a great place to come chat during the tournament!.
As I said last week I did $51 dollars of risk1 and as you can see from the attached picture it returned over 100% ROI!!!
For this week I am going with the following lineup and I plan on doing $55 worth of games:
Howell III 9,300
Good luck in all your action!
$51.25 to be exact as I had a free ticket I used (that lost)