About one year ago this week I took a hard look in the mirror and realized that my methodology for picking golf was broken. With that, I decided to tear things up and start from scratch.
Since that point, starting one year ago today on May 11, 2022, we have had a ton of success and, honestly, it started pretty quickly with that first week turning 89% ROI followed not too far thereafter with 3 straight weeks of winners (65-1, 10-1, 50-1) that I do not think I will ever be able to replicate.
That said I wanted to cover what that year has looked like1:
We have made 661 bets, which have led to 77.2 units of profit!
We have had 8 tournaments where we have hit the outright winner2 (4 each PGA Tour season).
Our outright bets have accounted for ~47% of our profit across the 12 months.
We have had 12 months with bets in them with 6 losing months (including the in- progress May 2023) and 6 winning months. June 2022 was our most profitable with 63u of profit, while July 2022 was our worst month with 12.8u of losses.
Now that is all well and good, but let’s dig a little deeper….
Our most profitable guys (excluding outright bets) to bet on have been3:
Patrick Cantlay - 15 bets - 6.91u profit
Scottie Scheffler - 15 bets - 6.56u profit
Chris Kirk - 14 bets - 5.3u profit
Keegan Bradley - 9 bets - 4.28u profit
Keith Mitchell - 18 bets - 3.65u profit
JT Poston - 8 bets - 3.6u profit
Talyor Montgomery - 4 bets - 3.15u profit
Russell Henley - 13 bets - 3.14u profit
Stephan Jaeger - 9 bets - 3.11u profit
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 7 bets - 3.1u profit
Nick Taylor - 3 bets - 3.1u profit
Our least profitable guys (excluding outright bets) have been4:
Luke List - 13 bets - 6.5u lost
Cam Young - 16 bets - 2.3u lost
Tiger Woods - 6 bets - 2.2u lost
Matthew NeSmith - 3 bets - 2u lost
Si Woo Kim - 4 bets - 2u lost
For outright bets, the numbers are super skewed, hence why I excluded them above, but our 3 biggest winners are:
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 3 bets - 23u profit thanks to 50-1 at the 2022 US Open
Billy Horschel - 2 bets - 16u profit thanks to 65-1 at the Memorial
Russell Henley - 4 bets 11.75u profit thanks to 50-1 at World Wide Technologies
The player we have bet on the most to win outright is Scottie Scheffler's 11 bets, but we have seen a profit of 3.5u on his bets.
For outright losers, our biggest losers are:
Patrick Cantlay - 7 bets - 3.5u lost
Sungjae Im - 9 bets - 2.75u lost
Chris Kirk - 7 bets - 1.75u lost
Guys who have lost 1.5u: Brian Harman (4 bets), Aaron Wise (6),
Guys who have lost 1.25u: Cam Young (3 bets5), Keith Mitchell (5)
Soooooo what does this all tell me…..Other than I should never bet Luke List again - The thing I honestly find most interesting is that the guys we have lost the most on from an outright perspective are actually some of our most profitable overall guys! This means we are valuing them correctly, we just can’t seem to get them over the line or, in the case of Chris Kirk this year, be there when they take home the big check. This to me is a great sign for what we are doing here.
Thank you!
I have gone on long enough so I just want to close with this…..Thank you!
I know betting on golf can be INCREDIBLY frustrating week-to-week and, really hole-to-hole, but I just wanted to thank you for coming along on this ride with me. It has been really fun and I hope we have some more big wins coming up here really soon, maybe even this weekend in Texas, but through all the ups and downs I am thrilled when folks send me their winning tickets.
My inbox and DMs are always open.
-T
All these stats are through May 8, 2023
I do not count the 2 “unofficial” winners I gave out as I am always clear when I do “unofficial” picks that they are not tracked for better or for worse - though they are cumulatively up about 18u.
Guys who have returned 3u of profit or more
Guys who have lost us as least 2u or more
Note we still have 0.5u pending on him for next week at the PGA Championship that, given his recent performances, is not looking great