Butterfield Bermuda - Recap
After EVR won last week, I was not sure the PGA Tour could top that from a story / emotional perspective, but Camilo’s win was unbelievable. Once it was clear that our guys were not in contention (see more about that below), I was rooting hard for him to get his first win in almost 10 years.
That was more or less a disaster from a handicapping perspective. We really didn’t come close to a person winning nor did we have anyone really pushing for Top 10 and our results show it.
Top 20’s didn’t really go our way either but at least we got a couple wins to lessen the blow and we got a couple of the match-ups home.
Ultimately a 3.6u loss is not a big deal, but I really don’t like how far away our guys were from truly contending.
Betting Kingdom Golf Tipster Rankings
If you have not seen it, there is a new website called Betting Kingdom that has attempted to create an objective methodology for ranking those who give out golf picks on Twitter.
I am currently the #3 ranked person in all of Twitter!!!
I ask that you head over to my page on their site and provide a review as having positive user reviews is part of their formula!
RSM Classic
The PGA Tour comes back stateside with a VERY short trip west to the Atlantic Ocean coast to visit Sea Island Golf Club in Saint Simons Island, Georgia. Since 2015, this tournament has been played across this country club’s two 18-hole courses with the Seaside Course playing to a par of 70 across 7,000 yards and the Plantation Course playing to a par of 72 across 7,060 yards. The first two rounds will be played across the two courses, while the final two rounds will all be played on the Seaside Course.
This event, and its predecessor the McGladrey Classic, have been hosted at this location every year since its inception in 2010. Something we have to take into account is this golf club is the home course for a ton of PGA Tour professionals, including Open Champion Brian Harman.
The 2022 RSM saw a 2nd Canadian pick up his first PGA Tour victory this season when 125-1 Adam Svensson shot -19 to beat Brian Harman (who we had at 22-1), Callum Tarren (150-1), and Sahtith Theegala (50-1) by 2 strokes. The 2021 edition saw LIV star Talor Gooch (40-1 odds) capture his only PGA Tour win when he shot -22 to top Mackenzie Hughes (60-1) by 3 strokes, and the 2020 edition saw Robert Streb (-19) capture his 2nd RSM Classic, this time as a 300-1 shot, when he bested Kevin Kisner (40-1) in a playoff.
The 72-hole record for scoring was achieved by Talor Gooch (2021) and Kevin Kisner (2015) when they shot 260 for a to-par score of -22.
Something else to note this week is that this is the final tournament of the PGA Tour’s fall calendar so this is the final chance for guys to get the lucrative “next 10” spots for the first 2 elevated events in 2024 AND it is the last chance for those in around 125 in the FedEx Cup rankings to keep their Tour cards for next year.
Last year, we came close with Harman but ultimately had a 0.6 unit loss (-20.2% ROI) as we took very limited risk, especially after big Tony WD before the tournament.
As will be our expectation for most of the fall calendar, this field lacks high-level names in the 156-man field, but this one is significantly stronger than we have seen recently with 11 Top 50 OWGR players teeing it up.
We are taking 8u of risk this week as I want to devote a small bit of my bankroll to the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai (Link to those picks):
Outright1:
0.9u Russell Henley 20-1
0.6u JT Poston 30-1
0.4u JJ Spaun 45-1
0.4u Brendon Todd 45-1
0.15u Matthew NeSmith 125-1
T10 (0.25u on each):
Russell Henley +200
Corey Conners +300
JJ Spaun +450
T20
1u JT Poston +185
0.5u Corey Conners +150
0.5u JJ Spaun +210
0.25u Si Woo Kim +165
0.25u Brendan Todd +225
0.25u Mackenzie Hughes +330
0.25u Matthew NeSmith +400
Match-ups
0.75u Davis Thompson over Adam Long -150
0.36u Mark Hubbard over Nick Hardy -144
0.36u Corey Conners over Alex Noren -144
0.345u Si Woo Kim over Justin Suh -138
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Daily Fantasy
Taking a pass this week, but will be back doing these in 2024
Good luck with all your action!
I love Harman on his home course, but anything under 22-1 is too short for me. My numbers show value on Si Woo and English but I worry that they have not been playing enough. I also see value on Kirk, but it is hard to look at his form and commit capital to it.