We have made it!! It has been a LONG grinding NFL season for us here at the Titanic Substack. Obviously, the results have been far from what I had hoped when we set out on this journey back in August/September. Alas, we have managed our bankroll so that the losses were not fatal and, if nothing else, I saw that the changes I made going into the back end of the season certainly made a difference so I will look to do more of that next year, but obviously, there is quite a bit of work to do on my end.
Anyway, I wanted to take this moment before I get into the big game to talk about what to expect from the Substack over the next few months, by sport:
My NF season recap will be out in the next week or so. Keep an eye out for that
NFL Draft - As I have done the last 2 years, I will have a newsletter for the NFL draft that will have my breakdown of the QB class and bets. Last year we turned a 0.88u profit at the draft; highlighted a 14-1 hit on Hendon Hooker to the Lions!
Golf - it should come as no surprise that we will continue to have DPWT and PGA Tour action every week throughout the summer, including the 2024 Summer Olympics at Le Golf National in Paris!
Horse Racing - I know this is content that some folks love so I am going to be doing horse racing content at least twice a month between now and the Kentucky Derby. A few notes on these:
Firstly, these will be behind the $5/month paywall.12 The reason for this decision is that as much as I love horse racing, I would not normally be laying action on it throughout this period and there is an additional cost to buying the data I need to handicap these picks so I am going to use this to defray my costs.3
My hope/plan is to do it more frequently than twice a month if I can
These will mostly be focused on the big prep races, like the Holy Bull last week.
The Triple Crown cards will still be FREE for all
Hope that is clear and makes sense to everyone. If you have any questions just let me know!
-T
Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs:
While some might be surprised by this Super Bowl match-up, Mecole Hardman always knew he would be playing against the 49ers in the Super Bowl.
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Feb 12, 6:30 PM, CBS
Weather Report - indoors
Line movement
Open: 49ers -2 (-105); ML 49ers -125; O/U 47.5 (-110)
1/29 AM4: 49ers -1 (-110); ML 49ers -115; O/U 47.5 (-105/-115)
1/29 PM5: 49ers -1.5 (-105); ML 49ers -117; O/U 47 (-108/-112)
2/1 AM: 49ers -2.5 (-103); ML 49ers -126; O/U 47.5 (-105/-105)
2/6 PM: 49ers -2 (-103); ML 49ers -125; O/U 47.5 (-105/-105)
2/8 AM: 49ers -2 (-107); ML 49ers -123; O/U 47.5 (-105/-105)
Now: 49ers -2 (-105); ML 49ers -123; O/U 47.5 (-105/-105)
Stats that might matter to the game
Evan Abrams has the most amazing stat this week, in recent history, the team with the better win percentage entering the SB is 1-15 ATS in the SB since 2003
Evan Abrams comes back with the fact that Shanahan is 6-0 SU as a favorite in the playoffs. He is also 32-11 SU (28-14-1 ATS) in the 2nd leg of back-to-back West Coast games, including 17 straight wins
For those who like to bet squares, Mitch Moss has a great rundown of the most common 1Q scores for the Super Bowl
Similarly, Todd Fuhrman has a really good breakdown of the 49ers and Cheifs’ scoring by quarter and half
Bill Vinovick will referee the Super Bowl this year and, as Rick Gosselin points out, he also refereed the 2020 Super Bowl between these two teams, calling only 9 penalties for 69 yards.
Per Dov Kleiman, teams that travel west have a 7-0 record vs teams that travel east for the Super Bowl in the last 30 years.
Per Griff, over the last 22 years, the team that was the bigger favorite on average throughout the season is 3-19 ATS (13.6%)
Per Joe Osborne:
Patrick Mahomes is one of 5 active QBs to have won a Super Bowl (Staffors, Russ, Rodgers, and Falcco are the other 4)
Per Jay Cuda, the Chiefs are 19-1 over the last 5 years under a waxing crescent moon
Per Gilles Gallant, if you are considering betting CMC to score a TD at -225 to -250, you might want to consider the plus money 1H TD bet instead. He’s scored in 15/18 games (including playoffs) and in 13 of those 15 games, he scored in the 1H.
Stats that might matter to the props
There have been 57 Super Bowls, Tails lead 30 to 27
There have been a player with 2 or more touchdowns in 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls
Shortest TD under 1.5 yards has hit in 7 of the last 8 Super Bowls, including 4 straight
Titanic’s Model Breakdown6:
Overall Rank: KC 4th vs SF 3rd
Offense Rank: KC 10th vs SF 1st
Defense Rank: KC 2nd vs SF 12th
Other Rank7: KC 14th vs SF 22nd
My breakdown of the game:
When the 49ers have the ball - This might come down to the San Fran running game. As we all knew going into the AFC title game, the best advantage the Ravens had with the ball was to run it at the Chiefs, but for some reason, they decided not to do it and it once again cost them a game8. We should also talk about the Conference Championship games. I know it is easy to give Mahomes all the credit in the world, but they did nothing in the 2nd half offensively and the game was won by the Steve Spagnolo-run defense was about as impressive as could be, and that has been a trend with the Chiefs where 18 of their 20 games have gone under in the 2nd half. It will be fascinating how Kyle will attack and challenge Spags’ D as he really understands the checks and rules of defense and that his how he really breaks things apart. We have also seen the 49er offense struggle early in games and get it going later in the game, but the KC DL is no joke and let’s not forget the SF guards really struggled vs Detroit - and we can’t forget the last time they met in Super Bowl Chris Jones ended the game coming right up the middle.
When the Chiefs have the ball - Andy Reid has completely changed what they have done offensively. He realizes his strength is their defense so their tactics have been to throw most of their game plan into that first half, build a lead, and then use their defense to close out the game. Look at the AFC title game. Their offense went after it in the first half, but did nothing on the way to 17 points, averaging under 6 yards per pass. They are running the ball a bit more, and it seems like they should be able to move the ball on the ground. Here is another really interesting wrinkle, the vaunted San Fran
Special Teams - Based on DVOA, KC is the 6th best special teams unit while San Fran has the 25th. The 49ers kicking game with Michigan product Jake Moody is really where they could have a problem as he is about as shakey of a kicker as we’ve seen in a big game like this in quite a while.
Where I ended up - I think both of these teams are going to look to control the ball and control the rock, which should lead to a bit of a lower-scoring game. I think the 49ers use the Buffalo Bills game plan and just do it better and they win this game. Give me San Fran 23-17.
Props I like
Mahomes under 260.5 passing yards (-114)
MVS over 20.5 receiving yards (-114)
Kittle over 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
Ayuuk over 59.5 receiving yards (-114)
Noah Gray over 13.5 receiving yards (-112)
Longest reception of the game, MVS, Jennings, CMC
Jake Moody to miss a kick
Purdy over 27.5 rushing yards (-121)
My bets:
Spreads / Totals
2u San Fran -2 (-105)
1u Under 47.5 (-110)
0.25u KC 1H / SF Game (+600)
Props (0.25u each)
MVS over 20.5 receiving yards (-114)
Noah Gray over 13.5 receiving yards (-112)
CMC o1.5 TD’s (+200)
CMC MVP +450
Props I am not officially betting but are fun
Tails -105
Cheifs will take the ball if they win the coin toss +900
Clear/ Water +300
Good luck with all your action!
You can also do $50/year if you choose
While these will be behind a paywall - if you want a sample of them once, I can arrange that. Also, if $5/month would cause you serious financial hardship, let me know and we can work something out.
If it is a cost I would have incurred myself (aka for the triple crown) I wouldn’t look to defray it.
About 12 hours after open
24 hours after the open
I do not often let you all peak behind the curtain, but these are the rankings that my model calculated for these teams and, before you ask, no, I will not tell you how these are calculated
This is metric that I have created myself that takes into account things like Special Teams, my view of turnovers, coaching, penalties, etc.
Per Bobby Belt, the Ravens are now 0-31 under John Harbaugh when they run the ball fewer than 20 times.