Gooooooood evening everybody!!!!!!! - Mad Dog Russo Voice.
As you know, I do not cover the UFC, but it is one of the sports I have loved for years. When asked why I do not cover it here my answer is always the same → While I love the sport, you do not want my personal picks as I suck at handicapping it. That said, I found someone who IS good at handicapping UFC so I have asked him to help us out for this week’s UFC PPV event! Enjoy!
-T
Come hang out with us on the Gamblers Paradise Discord where we are always chatting about sports and betting and watching these types of events together.
Myk’s Picks
Intro
I’ve been handicapping MMA for over 8 years. My process is a two-part process. I have a model that took years to build. Anything that comes up +EV I double-check by watching the tape of each fighter's last 3 fights. Additionally, I will look at some historical results featuring similar fighting styles at the same weight class, etc, factor in motivation, fitness, any lingering injury issues, etc. If the stars align with the model output so to speak, then I will scale my unit size based on standard Full Kelly on ML/Totals and ¼ Kelly on all props.
UFC 282
Preface: 282 is a very lackluster card on the surface. To me, the Lawler fight brought a ton of intrigue and now that it’s been postponed, we’re left with a pretty clunky card that feels more like a Fight Night on Espn 2 than a PPV. With that being said, let’s dig in!
Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez - Early Prelim
Model Win Probability: Alexander Hernandez 51%
Analysis - This is an ugly one. Both fighters coming off losses, and neither one presents much upside. This fight will most likely go one of two ways; Hernandez will press early and pepper Billy with enough shots to catch him clean for a KO OR we see a sloppy mix of clinch works and posturing on the ground, that eventually ends with a ground and pound (GNP) victory by the fighter who dominates GC (Billy) or a Dec. I prefer taking Hernandez here and don’t mind playing him at +150 or better, but I think both fighters path to victory is clear enough we can sprinkle on some long odds props here.
Wagers:
0.45u on Hernandez to win by TKO/KO in RD. 1 +1100 {Bettable down to +900}
0.3u on Quarantillo wins in R3 +1100 {Bettable Down to +900}
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula - Prelim
Model Win Probability: Edmen Shahbazyan 80%
Analysis - This is going to be one of the more exciting/interesting fights on the card. I think given how crazy this may get with such widely stark contrasts in fighting style, this one ends with a finish. I’m going with an ITD prop for each and the under to cover both sides.
Wagers:
1.6u on Under 2.5 -160 {Bettable Down to -190}
0.5u on Shahbazyan wins by submission +800 {Bettable Down to +650}
0.4u on Lungiambula wins by KO/TKO +600 {Bettable Down to +500}
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus - Prelim
Model Win Probability: Jairzinho Rozenstruik 65%
Analysis - Rosenstruik has lost three of his five fights with the UFC, including his last two coming into this one. His June loss was the most alarming, a first-round KO at the hands of Alexander Volkov; just the second via KO of his career. For Daukaus, two straight losses of his own, both at the hands of killers in Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes. Given the fact that we have an equal buy-low opportunity on each fighter, I like the more underrated fighter in Jair, but if Daukaus gets it done it will be with his elite defense
Wagers:
1.7u on Jairzinho Rozenstruik -170 {Bettable Down to -185}
0.4u on Daukaus wins by decision +750 {Bettable Down to +500}
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria - Main Card
Model Win Probability: llia Topuria 75%
Analysis - Since joining the UFC in 2019 via The Ultimate Fighter, Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell has won five straight, all but one via unanimous decision. That likely ends Saturday night in Las Vegas. A Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, the undefeated Topuria started his professional MMA career with seven straight submissions (six in the first round) victories. Since then, Topuria would win four of his next five via KO/TKO, including his most recent four in the UFC. While Mitchell’s run has been impressive, he has little to no striking pedigree to speak of, something that could be a real problem against a guy Topuria who has steadily improved his. Topuria also comes into this fight with a 100% takedown defense, and an overall ground game that Mitchell has yet to see the likes of. With more paths to victory than his opponent, I think Topuria rolls in this one, and the fan-favorite Mitchell is getting too much respect in the markets
Wagers:
3u on llia Topuria -145 {Bettable Down to -275}
0.3u on Topuria wins by KO +325 {Bettable Down to +225}
0.5u on Topuria wins by submission +600 {Bettable Down to +450}
Darren Till vs. Driscus du Plessis - Main Card
Model Win Probability: Darren Till 51%
Analysis - Starting with a September 2018 loss to Tyron Woodley for the middleweight belt, Darren Till has now lost four of his past five fights with the sole win coming via a split decision over Kelvin Gastelum. He’ll now try and overcome a 460+ day layoff and he’s been dealt a killer for such an attempt in the quickly rising Driscus Du Plessis. This brings us the fortuitous opportunity to buy very low on Till here. If you watch the tape on Till, you will notice how tremendous his chin is. He can withstand a tremendous amount of damage and seemingly still fight as if he’s unscathed. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Till lately and I am hearing rumors from his camp that he’s used this long layoff to really retool his ground game and has majorly improved in this once-flawed area. I like the buy on the unknown and I am not buying the hype here with DDP.
Wagers:
1u on Darren Till +170 {Bettable Down to -100}
1.4u Under 2.5 -140 {Bettable Down to -175}
Other wagers / “Leans”
5u on Raul Rosas Jr (-200)
2u on Paddy Pimblett (-200)
3.9u on Erik Silva (-130)
2u on Joaquin Buckley (-130)
1u on Alexander Hernandez (+150)
1u Parlay +120: Shahbazyan + Salvador ← Fight Canceled
Props:
1.55u on Blachowicz/Ankalaev Under 4.5 (-155)
1.7u on Saiamaan/Koslow Under 2.5 (-170)
1.7u on Da Silva/Salvador Under 1.5 (-170)← Fight Canceled0.75u on Pimblett wins by KO (+350)
1u on Ponzinibbio inside the distance (+200)
0.35u on Koslow wins by submission (+600)
Grading will be done on the lines listed but obviously, Myk has added a guide as to how far the odds can move and there is still value for the write-ups!
Titanic’s closing message
Let me know if you like this type of content and I can see if I can get Myk back for more UFC events and see if I can find some others on things that I do not normally cover and make sure you are checking out this week’s NFL Picks!!