UPDATE 11:15 pm ET - Please accept my sincerest apologies. Apparently, there were a number of factual errors in the analysis originally posted and those have been corrected below and noted where changes have been made. While it did not change the wagers, I felt it required me to repost this out via email to everyone. The website has also been updated accordingly.
Gooooooood evening everybody!!!!!!! - Mad Dog Russo Voice!
As you know, I do not cover the UFC, but it is one of the sports I have loved for years. We were lucky enough to have Myk join us last year for UFC 282 and provide his model’s view and his personal breakdown of the fights and he is back for this week’s UFC PPV event! Enjoy!
-T
Myk is part of the amazing group that calls the Gamblers Paradise Discord home and will be there (as always) chatting about sports and betting and watching these types of events together.
Myk’s Picks
Intro
I’ve been handicapping MMA for over 8 years. My process is a two-part process. I have a model that took years to build. Anything that comes up +EV I double-check by watching the tape of each fighter's last 3 fights. Additionally, I will look at some historical results featuring similar fighting styles at the same weight class, etc, factor in motivation, fitness, any lingering injury issues, etc. If the stars align with the model output so to speak, then I will scale my unit size based on standard Full Kelly on ML/Totals and ¼ Kelly on all props.
UFC 291 Best Bets
UFC 291 is set to deliver a thrilling night of action, headlined by a rematch between two of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division: Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. The first fight was a war that ended with Poirier scoring a fourth-round TKO, but Gaethje has improved since then and is hungry for revenge. Who will come out on top in this potential fight-of-the-year candidate?
But that's not all. The co-main event features a clash of champions, as light heavyweight king Jan Blachowicz welcomes former middleweight champ Alex Pereira to the 205-pound division. Pereira is the only man to knock out Israel Adesanya. Can he pull off the upset against the Polish powerhouse, or will Blachowicz prove too much for him?
Plus, we have a welterweight showdown between the unpredictable Michel Pereira and the veteran Stephen Thompson, a lightweight scrap between the surging Bobby Green and the former interim champ Tony Ferguson, and many more exciting fights on the card.
If you're looking for some betting tips and analysis for UFC 291, you've come to the right place. I’ve used my proprietary model to project the win probabilities and expected value for each fighter and each outcome, based on historical data, current odds, and relevant factors. Using these projections, I’ve identified the best bets for each fight, whether it's a straight bet, a prop, a total, or a parlay.
Of course, betting involves risk and there are no guarantees in this sport. Anything can happen inside the octagon, and sometimes the best bet is to pass on a fight. Always bet responsibly and within your means.
With that said, let's dive into my “expert” analysis and recommended wagers for UFC 291.
Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje
Model Win Probability: Dustin Poirier 55%
Analysis - EDIT NOTE: The analysis in the 2nd and 3rd bullets has been updated.
The main event of UFC 291 is a lightweight clash between two of the most exciting fighters in the division, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Both fighters are known for their aggressive and entertaining styles, as well as their durability and heart. This fight has all the makings of a classic war that could end up being the fight of the year.
Poirier is coming off a win over Michael Chandler, where he showcased his improved striking and grappling skills. He has won 5 of his last 6 fights, with his only loss being to Charles Oliveira. Poirier is a well-rounded fighter who can mix it up on the feet and on the ground, and he has a high fight IQ and experience.
Gaethje is also coming off a win over Fiziev, where he dominated him with leg kicks and pressure before winning by a unanimous decision. He has won 2 of his last 3 fights, with his only loss being to Charles Oliveira as well. Gaethje is a former NCAA Division I wrestler who rarely uses his wrestling in MMA, preferring to stand and trade with his opponents. He has incredible power, speed, and cardio, and he is one of the most violent fighters in the sport.
This fight is very close and could go either way, but I lean slightly toward Poirier based on his more diverse skill set and recent performances. Gaethje is a dangerous opponent who can finish anyone at any time, but he also takes a lot of damage in his fights and tends to leave himself open for counters. Poirier has the advantage in boxing, footwork, and submissions, and he can also use his wrestling to control Gaethje if needed. I think Poirier will be able to survive Gaethje's early onslaught and wear him down as the fight goes on, before finding a finish in the later rounds.
Wagers:
Poirier/Gaethje under 4.5 (-175) 1.75u
Poirier wins by submission (+650) 0.35u
Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira
Model Win Probability: Jan Blachowicz 65%
Analysis - EDIT NOTE: The analysis in all 3 bullets as been updated
The co-main event of UFC 291 is a light heavyweight fight between Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira. Blachowicz is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He has won four of his last five fights, with his only loss being to Glover Teixeira. Blachowicz is a powerful striker who can knock out anyone with his Polish power, but he also has a solid ground game and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Pereira is coming off a devastating loss vs Israel Adesanya and looks to rebound. After an impressive career in kickboxing, where he was a multiple-time world champion and the only man to knock out Adesanya. Pereira is a phenomenal striker who has incredible speed, accuracy, and explosiveness. He is especially dangerous in the first round, where he has finished all of his MMA fights.
This fight is a classic striker vs striker matchup, where both men have the ability to end the fight with one punch or kick. However, I think Blachowicz has the edge in this fight based on his experience, durability, and grappling. Pereira has not faced the same level of competition as Blachowicz, and he may struggle with the pressure and pace of a five-round title fight. Blachowicz has proven that he can take a shot and recover, while Pereira has shown some signs of weakness in his chin and cardio. Blachowicz also has the option to take Pereira down and submit him if he wants to avoid trading with him on the feet. I think Blachowicz will be able to weather Pereira's early storm and find an opening to finish him in the second or third round.
Wagers:
Jan Blachowicz (-105) 2.1u
A.Pereira/Blachowicz under 2.5 (-155) 1.55u
Alex Pereira wins by R1 KO (+425) 0.4u
Michel Pereira vs Stephen Thompson
Model Win Probability: Michel Pereira 52%
Analysis - EDIT NOTE: The analysis in the 2nd and 3rd bullets has been updated.
Prior to the co-main events is a welterweight bout between Michel Pereira and Stephen Thompson. This is a stylistic clash between two of the most unorthodox and creative strikers in the UFC, who both have the ability to dazzle and surprise their opponents with their moves.
Pereira is a wild and unpredictable fighter who likes to use flashy techniques such as spinning kicks, flying knees, and backflips. Pereira is a dynamic and explosive fighter who can finish anyone with his striking or submissions, but he also tends to gas out and lose focus in his fights.
Thompson is a former kickboxing champion who has a karate-based style that relies on distance management, angles, and timing. Thompson is a technical and precise fighter who can outpoint anyone with his striking, but he also has some power and speed in his hands and feet.
This fight is a contrast between Pereira's chaos and Thompson's order, where both men have the potential to land something spectacular or get caught by something unexpected. However, I think Thompson has the advantage in this fight based on his experience, consistency, and defense. Pereira is a fun and exciting fighter to watch, but he also takes a lot of risks and wastes a lot of energy in his fights. Thompson is a veteran who has faced some of the best in the division, and he knows how to deal with different styles and adapt to different situations. Thompson also has very good defense and movement, which will help him avoid Pereira's wild attacks and counter him with his own strikes. I think Thompson will be able to outsmart and outclass Pereira over three rounds and win by decision.
Wagers:
Michel Pereira (+185) 1u
Pereira/Thompson under 2.5 (+170) 1u
Bobby Green vs Tony Ferguson
Model Win Probability: Bobby Green 78%
Analysis -
The second fight on the main card is a lightweight bout between Bobby Green and Tony Ferguson. This is a matchup between two veterans who have been in the UFC for a long time and have faced some of the best in the division.
Green is coming off a no-contest fight vs Jared Gordon. He has won 3 of his last 4 fights, with his only losses being KO’d by Makhachev. Green is a well-rounded fighter who can strike, wrestle, and grapple, and he has a high output and pace.
Ferguson is coming off five consecutive losses to Nate Diaz, Michael Chandler, Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Beneil Dariush, which have raised questions about his decline and durability. Prior to that, he won 12 of his last 15 fights, with most of them being finishes. Ferguson is a unique and unpredictable fighter who can strike, wrestle, and grapple as well, and he has a high output and pace too.
This fight is a battle between two fighters who are similar in many ways, but also different in some aspects. Both fighters are tough, durable, and aggressive, but they also have different strengths and weaknesses. Green has the advantage in boxing, footwork, and cardio, while Ferguson has the advantage in power, elbows, and submissions. I think this fight will be a close and competitive one that could go either way, but I lean slightly toward Green based on his recent form and performance. Ferguson has looked like a shell of his former self in his last three fights, where he was dominated and damaged by his opponents. Green has looked more sharp and consistent in his fights, where he was able to hang with some of the best in the division. I think Green will be able to outbox Ferguson on the feet and defend his takedowns on the ground while landing more volume and damage over three rounds.
Wagers:
Green/Ferguson under 2.5 (+135) 1.25u
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Chiesa
Kevin Holland 57%
Analysis -
The first fight on the main card is a welterweight bout between Kevin Holland and Michael Chiesa, who are set to deliver an exciting battle inside the Octagon. My model projects Kevin Holland with a 57% chance of victory. Both fighters possess unique skill sets, but who has the edge in this matchup? Kevin Holland is known for his unorthodox striking and versatility in the cage. With a 57% chance of winning according to the model, Holland is a formidable opponent.
Given the relatively even odds, a straight bet on Kevin Holland could offer good value. However, considering Michael Chiesa's grappling expertise and the potential for an upset, it's essential to approach this fight with caution
Wagers: - Pass
Other wagers / “Leans”1
Roman Kopylov (-225) 2.25u: Roman Kopylov's 77% chance of winning makes this straight bet an enticing option, even with the lower odds.
Matthew Semelsberger (-138) 2.1u: A straight bet on Matthew Semelsberger seems favorable with his 75% chance of victory, presenting a solid betting opportunity.
*Despite the line moving a bit on this one, I am including based on the edge that still exists at the current price of around -200
Priscila Cachoiera (+265) 1u: Despite her lower model projection, Priscila Cachoiera's favorable odds offer a chance for an impressive payout if she secures the win.
Props:
Ribeiro/Kopylov under 1.5 (+135) 1u: The model's projection of a 65% chance for Kopylov's victory suggests a potential early finish in this matchup, making the under 1.5 rounds an intriguing prop bet.
Bonfim/Giles under 1.5 (-110) 1.65u: Given Gabriel Bonfim's impressive 78% chance of victory, a prop bet on this bout ending early holds promise.
Bonfim wins by KO (+250) 0.4u: Considering Bonfim's high model projection and KO power, a prop bet on him winning via knockout could yield a favorable return.
Semelsberger by submission (+800) 0.35u: Matthew Semelsberger's grappling skills and high model projection make this prop bet on him winning by submission an intriguing long-shot option.
Parlays
J. Matthews + Bonfim (-115) 1.15u
Vergara + Bonfim (+127) 1u
Medic/Semelsberger 2.5 under + Vergara/Salvador 2.5 under (+160) 0.8u
Final Thoughts
UFC 291 is set up to be an exciting night of fights with close betting lines and lots of potential for underdog upsets. By analyzing each matchup and finding discrepancies between the betting odds and my model's projected probabilities, there is strong betting value to be found.
I expect the underdogs Priscila Cachoeira and Michel Pereira to deliver payoff wins for bettors backing them at plus-money odds. Gabriel Bonfim also looks like an excellent pick to continue his undefeated rise against the outmatched Trevin Giles.
Of course, anything can happen inside the octagon, which is what makes UFC betting so intriguing yet frustrating. Do your homework, shop for the best lines, and gamble responsibly. I hope this UFC 291 betting guide provides valuable insights into breaking down these intriguing matchups and finding betting value on fight night!
Remember to always bet responsibly and have fun watching the fights.
Good luck and happy betting! 🍀👊🏼
Grading will be done on the lines listed!
Titanic’s closing message
Let me know if you like this type of content and I can see if I can get Myk back for more UFC events and see if I can find some others on things that I do not normally cover!
Myk bet Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+100) 3u but due to the current line being around -220ish, he didn’t want include it at the price it was originally bet as the current price presents a -5% edge. Would I go and bet Lewis? Unless you can get +200 or better, I personally would not