I interrupt your holiday fun to remind you that the PGA Tour comes back just after our calendar turns from 2022 to 2023.
Since the PGA Tour moved to its wrap-around calendar back in 2014 the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Kapalua Hawaii has always marked the unofficial start to the golf season and that tournament will be played January 5th through 8th this year.
In anticipation of that tournament and the run that will include basically weekly tournaments all the way through the TOUR Championship in late August, I thought it made sense to send out a refresher on my approach to betting golf. Enjoy.
Where we stand
I will get into a full recap when I do the Sentry post but wanted to make sure everyone knew where we stood before I wax poetically about my approach to 2023!
For those who are new to my reporting the tables you see below are my standard reporting and they are as follows:
All time - these two tables show my all-time record for my v2.0 model and they show results by dollar amount wagered and bet type
Season to date - This table shows how I am doing this specific PGA Tour season aka Fortinet Championship through TOUR Championship
November to date- This will always show the latest month-to-date action
RSM Classic - these two tables will show how the last tournament went be bet amount and by bet type.
My approach to golf betting
Welcome back to the PGA Tour season! Here is how I approach golf betting:
Bankroll Management is key - yes, as always I think you should start with a 100u bankroll for every sport and you should bet it judiciously. As always, the amounts I am listing are based on a $100 per unit basis, please make sure you bet to your bankroll size! While I personally bet more than $100 per unit, I have left it at that amount for ease of use in the model and reporting.
Wager amounts - generally speaking, I wager in 0.25, 0.5, and 1u wager amounts. For match-ups, you will often see different amounts risked, but if you do the math you will see that it is to win one of the amounts above (e.g., risk 1.2u at -120 to win 1u). There may be times I bet more than 1u, but those are rather rare.
Wager types - I generally bet outright winners, T101, T20, and head-to-head matchups2, but for things like majors or other large tournaments where there is a much more liquid market you will see me also bet things like cuts, T40, and other fun things.
Sending out and recaps - I send recaps and picks once a week, generally Tuesday afternoons/evenings, and they look like this. It will always have a recap report showing how things are going (good, bad, ugly, or in-between; always 100% transparency). Sometimes, I drop some early picks at the Gamblers Paradise Discord but they will always be in my newsletter later in the week (though odds may have moved).
My personal approach/goal - My goal each week is to grind profits on the T10, T20, and Head-to-head bets. If I can do that then when we find ourselves cashing an outright winner we will be just boosting those profits. If you look at my results from the 2021-2022 season, you will see that of the 59u of profit only 27.3u came from outright winners so that means 54% of our profit was from these other categories of bets. Now this year has been a different story as we have ALREADY matched that number of outright winners and profit so let’s keep the good times rolling!
Cost - This is a free newsletter and I hope that it stays that way, but the only way that happens is if some folks voluntarily sign up for the $5/month or $50/year fee or send tips when we win big!
If you have any questions, you can email me (just reply when you get one) or DM me on Twitter or Discord. I am always here to answer questions.
I also highly recommend that you find multiple books and open accounts across them. Line shopping is huge when it comes to being profitable in gambling. I personally use BetOnline and Bovada for my action and I will never put a pick in these newsletters that I won’t personally bet for at least as much as listed here.
This means a player ends up in the top 10, including ties. I HIGHLY recommend looking for books that do not apply dead heat rules to these markets.
Matchups can vary by book so again this is a good reason to have multiple books