I tried this last year and think it went relatively well and spurred some super fun discussion in the Gamblers Paradise Discord, as well as folks (rightfully) throwing my Burrow and Hurts rankings in my face but hey!! It is for fun and always cool to hear how wrong I am from someone other than my wife so let’s do it again!
Enjoy!
My NFL QB Ranking
Every year Mike Sando over at the Athletic puts out an amazing column where he does QB Tiers based on interviews with NFL execs. I highly recommend reading it, but he is hardly the only one doing it. There is Madden, Ryen Russillo and Sheil Kapadia, and ESPN has theirs so it got me thinking and chatting with some folks about what my QB rankings are soooooo here are my thoughts.
First and foremost NFL QB rankings are dumb, but a fun exercise and something that ultimately does affect the gambling I will do this season as sometimes it will come down to “who has the best QB”. One of the things I really like about Sando’s is that he breaks the QB’s into tiers and I think that is absolutely the right way to do it.
Each Tier will be “Tier # - my definition - a little bit about the tier”. Enjoy!
Tier 1 - My name is Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes - That is it. He is clearly the best of the best and I will hear nothing otherwise.
Tier 2 - The Elites. These guys can and do win on their own and take over games. Any team would be more than happy to have them
Allen - His ability to physically take over games is only matched by Mahomes and a fully healthy Lamar. He is one of the very few QBs I have ever seen really fix accuracy problems and has weapons around him that he uses quite well. I do worry longer term about how many hits he takes and how long he will last and in some games his mechanics fall apart (watch his feet), but it does feel like I am picking nits.
Burrow - Well last year I said “If he does what he did last year again then I will move him up to Tier 2, but I just want to see it again”…..Well, I saw it again and here we are. Yes, he is helped by having one of the top receiving corps in the league, but this dude is tough as nails and can make EVERY throw. The guy is 32-17 in his career and the 4th most profitable betting QB in the last 10 years.
Tier 3 - Really Good - These are guys who absolutely win games for their teams, but do need support around them and/or may have a flaw - These guys are dudes their teams really should have no problem paying big contracts.
Rodgers - I know he had a down year last year, but the dude recently won back-to-back MVPs, and as Raheem Palmer pointed out Brady had a bad year with the Pats before finding his form again in Tampa. I will not sleep on him, especially playing with the weapons he now has with gang green.
Herbert - I have loved him since his Oregon days, but I am starting to wonder if/when we have to start talking about how they do not win big games. He has all the talent in the world and now has the contract and Kellen Moore (and Doug Nussmeier) coaching him so it will be interesting to see how he performs. He has all the tools to move to Tier 2, but the 25-24 record in games started keeps him here.
Lamar - Once again I am hopelessly biased here, I have loved Lamar going back to his Louisville days. I do not get the hate he gets. Is he the best passer in the world? No, but the guy just wins and wins and his passing is way better than he gets credit for and thankfully we should see that this year with Todd Monken as OC. Let’s just pray he can stay healthy.
Dak - He is just so unbelievably solid and consistent. Very good, but not great. As a Cowboys fan, I would love to see Dak move up, but I do think it is likely. In his career, he is 61-36. How much of the credit should go to him? I often hear “dak sucks, McCarthy sucks, Jason Garrett sucked, Jerry Jones Sucks”….Well someone is winning like 63% of those games. Who is it? Should we be worried about the interceptions last year? Maybe, but did you know he has the same number of turnovers as Josh Allen over their last 33 games? Now this year will be interesting with McCarthy calling plays and a new QB coach in town.
Jalen Hurts - Hurts did EVERYTHING we could have asked from him last year to get him into this tier above so while the Cowboys fan in me wants to knock him for having arguably the most talented team in the NFL around him is not really fair.
Tier 4 - I want to see it again before I move you up or down - These QBs had really great or terrible years last year but I am going to need to see it again before I start believing it’s a real trend.
Trevor Lawrence - Where Hurts had the most talented team around him to get him knocked a little bit, Lawrence’s problem for me is that he played in the worst division in football and was coming off the worst coaching situation in the NFL so I want to see him continue to progress this year before I move him up, but he came VERY close to the level above.
Deshaun Cosby - One of the things that made me a ton of money last year was fading the Browns once he came back. Sitting out for 2 years of NFL football was bound to be a struggle and boy was it! He was AWFUL. The reason he is here and not lower is that I want to see him with a full off-season to see if he has anything left and I actually think there is something left.
Tier 5 - Okay, I’ve got questions - These are QBs that are solid/decent, but if I was their GM I would not be super excited - These are QBs where the teams are or should start to debate whether there is a real future with this person or should they be looking for the next guy
Wilson - Are you done? - Last season I wrote “Was the last 18 months because he was hurt or beat up after years of getting pummeled behind a crap OL or was it more of just the end of the marriage with an HC (e.g., Rodgers with McCarthy)? What do we make of the offense they were running? Every time he “cooked” things got weird. When he got to pick his OC things were terrible. I could see him moving back to Tier 1 or down to Tier 4.” Well…….Tier 5 it is! I think he is fully done and we will see that proved out this year.
Daniel Jones - Are you for real? - I know folks likely think I am being too harsh by not including him in Tier 4, but I am still not a believer in him and I am going to be fading the Giants this year. If I am wrong then fine (won’t be the first or last time), but I think the Giants are going to regret the deal they handed him.
Stafford - Do you have anything left? - Yes his team just won the super bowl 2 years ago and he is/has been wildly talented, but I worry that he is breaking down. At some point, the physical tools he once had will no longer be competitive, but I think he has one more season left.
Tua - Can you stay healthy? - I have been open about my not liking Tua, but I was legit impressed last year. Sure, he has a noodle arm and has dudes that can take the ball to the end zone anytime they get the ball in their hands, but Tua was quick, decisive, and accurate with the ball and had them humming before his injuries started up.
Goff - How far did Ben Johnson take him? - He has always been a one-read QB and when he is put into an offense that manages him he can be good. Ben Johson is one of the best young minds in football and I am interested to see how he does with the pressure on them
Geno Smith - Are you for real? - Geno had a great season last year, but I what is keeping him from being in Tier 4 is that we have seen him play for years and last year was the first time he looked like a serviceable starter.
Fields - “Can you throw? - Pretty simple here. I loved him coming out of school and told my Giants-fan friends they were making a mistake trading back from the spot where the Bears picked him1, but his lack of ability to throw the ball is really worrying.
Brock Purdy - “Are you just the latest product of your offense?” - Obviously he benefits from a crazy talented team and likely the best offensive mind in the NFL, but let’s not diminish what the kid did last year. He was fantastic until he got hurt. How will he recover is also a really interesting question as well.
Tier 6 - I do not know what to do with you
Carr - Another year and another kind of disappointing season and this time he was supported by a really good running game, but also had an atrocious D. It will be interesting to see him in New Orleans.
Cousins - Similar to Carr, this is a guy who I feel gets a little too much shit. If you were to ask me to sum up Cousins in one word I would say “fine”.
Jimmy G - How can anyone feel good or bad about Jimmy G? You can’t be happy with his health, but we are about to see him back with his favorite OC. Let’s see what he can do (Spoiler Alert: I am NOT high on the Raiders this year)
Kenny Pickett - At some point, we are all going to realize Mike Tomlin knows what he is doing. I do not really rate Pickett, but if Tomlin believes in him then I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Mac Jones - Year 1 was pretty good. Year 2 was pretty bad. How much of that was the fact the Pats had a disaster of a coaching staff? I am not sure, but let’s see what year 3 brings.
Sam Howell / Jordan Love / Desmond Ridder / Bryce Young / CJ Stroud / Anthony Richardson - These are just young guys that I do not feel right giving a true evaluation on at the NFL level
Tier 6 - We are in trouble and I am out on you
Murray - I wrote last year “I know they just handed him a huge contract and I personally think that was a giant mistake.” BINGO. He is likely out for this season and I expect them to draft Caleb Williams #1 overall next year.
Minshew - He is just a seat warmer in Indy or just a backup for Richardson
Tannehill - He looked old and broken down last year. I think he might have one more year in him but I do not think he has much left, but the problem for the Titans team are the guys behind him…..
Willis - I did not like him coming out of college and I have seen NOTHING in the NFL that makes me think I was wrong
Levis - I did NOT like him in the draft and still do not think he will be anything more than a backup. It does not surprise me at all that reports coming out that he us struggling in camp
Baker - Always fun when a team that is actively trying to lose makes you their starter
Lance - I need to see it before I believe it because what I have seen is not good and he has played like 5 games in 4 years.
I was half right. They definitely made a mistake by trading out of that pick, but it was because the left Micah Parsons on the table for Dallas to take with the next pick.