Happy Labor Day Weekend!! This weekend is the unofficial end to summer, but to me the start of fall is this Thursday with the NFL kicking off!! As such, I wanted to lay out my content plans for this fall / winter.
For those who were with me last season, thank you so much for returning!! We had a TON of success last year on our way to almost 35 units of profit! 1
If you are new since last NFL season, I am so glad you decided to join up and trust me to help guide you through this NFL season.
The NFL is my favorite pro sport2 and I have honestly been looking forward to the NFL season since the confetti fell last February so I really can’t wait to get this season in full swing.
This newsletter will lay out the following:
What a normal week will look like
What content to expect for each game and my Friday column
Some important things to note
What I lay out in this post is my initial plan. I reserve the right to deviate / change things as I go if certain things are working better than others or I get a new idea.
Come hang out
I will be over at Gamblers Paradise all season chatting as the games are going on!! Come hang out for FREEEEEE!!
This is meant to be a forum of gamblers / sports fans in a place watching together and sharing thoughts / opinions (respectfully) with one another. This is NOT a place for folks to push their pay for services or post their sweet winning “lay” tickets, it is a place for folks to build a community.
Normal Week’s Schedule
Each week of the NFL season you should expect 3-4 NFL newsletters. What I lay out here is my :
Newsletter 1 - Monday morning
This will cover my picks / bets for MNF - some weeks this will be with my Friday post including this week!
Newsletter 2 - Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning:
My pick / bets for Thursday Night Football game
Recap of the prior week’s action - will include performance reporting
Newsletter 3 - Friday Afternoon (rarely on Saturday)
My LONG Friday picks column - I will cover this more below
Newsletter 4 - Sunday morning - This is not always something I do, but can include:
Updates to Friday’s picks (e.g., if someone is questionable to play and I want to wait on a bet - this will be explicitly stated on Friday)
Additional parlays / teasers / props
Anything else that might be noteworthy.
Given that I have added golf and may still do NBA3, I don’t want to KILL your inboxes so I am combining what was my recap email with the TNF pick, I will do my best to limit Sunday emails, and as often as I can I will include my MNF pick in my Friday column or Sunday update.
There were a couple times last year where I wanted to grab a line early so IF that happens I will send out a very short post that says I am doing it and then will provide the full write-up at the week’s end. These are usually few and far between but want to make sure I cover as many things as I can think of.
Help Support!!!!!
Most folks giving out picks charge tons of money and I am doing ALL of this for FREE (re-read above and check out the below for what you are getting for $0). Please help me keep it free by choosing to pay $5/month or by clicking the tip button on my twitter profile. I badly want to keep this place free for those who can’t afford to pay what folks charge, but I honestly do need more support than I am currently getting.
Content to Expect on Fridays
As you may know, each Friday afternoon during the NFL season I send out a LONGGGG column that will give you almost everything you need to be prepared for the weekend’s games and can read while you are slacking on a Friday afternoon at work or in your door room with a beer or saved for Sunday morning when you are trying to figure out how to spend all the money you won chasing Hawaii + the points at 2am.
I will lay out the following for each game:
Titanic Model Output - what my model says - THIS is what is tracked each week as model plays
My two cents - these are my personal thoughts / analysis for each game
Verdict - Given the model output, my personal views of the game, this will lay out what I will personally be doing with betting the game. - This is NOT tracked as I am giving you all the information I am using to make my decisions, but I am hopeful you are coming to your own conclusions which may differ than mine
During the playoffs last year I added the following things and I will look to incorporate these during the regular season ONLY when there is something noteworthy:
Weather report
Line movement
Stats that might matter
My Power Rankings for the teams (Likely won’t return until much later in the season or for major games)
After I get through all the games in the post you will find a section called “Parlays, Teasers, and Others”. This section will give other bets that I am going to make and this can be really any type of bet that is readily available. These were a gold mine for my readers last year and they ARE tracked and reported each week.
I will be bringing back my $25 longshot parlay of the week!!! For those who are unfamiliar, I place 1 longshot parlay of the week and I post it on Twitter. If the parlay wins I will select one person who likes the tweet AND subscribes to this newsletter to give HALF THE WINNINGS!!! We hit a 41-1 parlay in Week 3 last year!
I plan to include a NEW sections each week:
“Survivor Pool Thoughts” - I, like many people, take part in survivor pools so I am going to give you some thoughts each week about what to do for those pools.
If you are someone who is only interested in my personal picks or what my model says you can skip right down to those parts of each game and find them in bold, but I think it is important to give context so that folks who want to learn to be better gamblers can see the why I am making the picks that I am.
One thing that is not coming back this year is DFS. It did not perform that well and based on my discussions with folks this was by far the part that folks didn’t care about or skipped.
Important things to note
These may be obvious to some (especially if you were with me last NFL season), but want to make sure they are explicitly said:
My model / picks uses a base of $100 per unit - do NOT bet that amount if that is more than you can afford!! Personally, I will NEVER bet less than the unit amount I tell you based on that $100/unit, but my bankroll has shifted over the last 2 years so I may bet more based on my personal risk appetite and feelings.
I use the 1% bankroll method so my units equal 1% of my bankroll (for those doing the math $100/unit = $10K bankroll). I mostly bet in 0.5u, 1u, 2u and 3u increments. Generally speaking you will see a bunch of 0.5u and 1u bets each week, 2u bets will be relatively uncommon and 3u bets rare. While I do use 0.25u bets it is mostly when I am doing parlays as I like small risk with big returns.
You CAN and SHOULD have different unit sizes per sport! Are you equally confident betting all sports? I am not!!! As I have said in the past I think you should keep 100 units per sport, but let’s say you only have 10K total to wager and want to bet 3 sports….no problem at all, you could do 5K for NFL ($50 units), 3K for PGA ($30 units) and 2k for College Football ($20 units). This is how I do my betting! My unit size for NFL is far greater than what I bet on things like MMA, Soccer and Cricket.
If you are unfamiliar with my NFL process, here is a link to when I wrote it up last year.
When I hit send on my picks column on Friday, the lines / odds you see quoted there are based on what is available on BetOnline or Bovada at that time4
You can ALWAYS email me (just hit reply to the email you get from me) or DM me on Twitter at anytime if you have questions about this or any of my posts!
Before you send me messages, please keep in mind this place is free so when we hit a rough patch remember I am losing too and that the path to long term profits is NEVER straight.
Let’s have a kick ass season!!
If you are someone who sees that we had a profit of 35 units and think “Well that is garbage, my twitter tout does that in a single weekend”, I understand that view point and I wish you luck in your endeavors. This substack is meant for those who understand that long term profits in gambling come from long term grinding and thoughtful risk taking.
I believe in #transparency so if you did not know, I am a die hard Cowboys fan. I say this as I want you to know that I have an emotional bias related to them, but this also means this is the team where I have developed the most inside contacts (I have contacts at multiple teams) and the one on which I do the most research. I will ABSOLUTELY bet against the Cowboys.
NBA takes a lot of work and is daily so I am not 100% committing to doing NBA this season, sorry.
Give or take about an hour. It can take me a while to finalize the column and I lay all my action as I finalize the column so what I am publishing is the line / odds I personally get at that moment so it is possible things move after that.