Content programming note
Given how last week went with my picks I will save my gambling theories for next week so this week I figured I would get into what my plans are over the next few months:
NFL Picks - No real changes, but with holidays / Saturday games and stuff the timing of these might shift a little going forward
PGA Tour - The RSM Classic that is currently taking place is the last full-field event until 2023. I may have a couple of picks for the 2 small events coming up but those will be on discord. Otherwise, I will be back in 2023 once the full schedule comes up.
NBA Picks - This has been the thing I keep going back and forth on and honestly I am still not sure what I am going to do. These take a TON of time and effort and frankly it is not becoming worth my while to do these (or really any of my picks) here as no one seems to think this place is worth supporting even when we win (see: last 2 weeks of golf). I will let you all know what I decide, but I might just not do it, do it for my discord only, or make it for those who pay for the substack already as a thank you. Stay tuned.
Week 11
Things of note this week:
This week we have 4 teams on byes with the Dolphins, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Jaguars getting a week off
This is the first week of the flex schedule so the Sunday night game has changed
Per the ActionNetwork, teams are 0-8 straight up in their next game after playing the Carolina Panthers, both the Falcons and Bengals look to break that duck
Warren Sharp put out some interesting analysis as to why we have had so many close games, check that out if you have time
Underdogs: 83-62-4 ATS (57%); Underdogs of 4+ 48-26 ATS (65%) - best through Week 10 since 1999
Unders are 85-63-2 (57%) - highest through Week 10 since 1991
This week’s games:
Game 1: Titans @ Packers (Thursday 8:15 pm) - win
Game 2: Bears @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Chicago has the 7th best 3rd down offense, converting 44.4% of the time, while the Falcons have the 4th worst 3rd down defense allowing 46.6% conversions
Billy Kilmer in 1961 is the last QB to run for 100+ yards in 3 straight games
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Look, I have always been clear I love Justin Fields, but the Bears’ loss last week is a symptom of the fact he is still so immature as a passer and if they get into passing situations they are going to struggle, especially down the stretch of games. That said, Fields as a runner is wild. Per Sheil Kapadia, he has 2 of the 5 highest QB rushing totals of the last 20 years in the last 2 weeks!!! All the Fields love aside, they have lost 3 straight games and not covered in 2 of them. I know there is a TON of love for the Bears and I am passing as I don’t love the Falcons but they really feel like the right side in this game.
Game 3: Browns @ Bills (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - the weather for this game could be BRUTAL
Stat that might matter -
Buffalo has been outscored 43-12 in the 2nd half of their last 3 games
Per Adam Schefter, Deshaun Watson could begin practicing this week
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - As you may know or have realized, I start this newsletter and edit it throughout the week and do some final edits on Friday when I do my picks. This is what I had written before today - “Josh Allen has been making terrible decisions with the ball (see: 4 INTs in the RZ the last 2 weeks) and it is costing them the game week after week. Last week, within 10 minutes of that game kicking off I knew my Browns bet was dead. The weather for this game should be absolutely dreadful and in that case, I want the better run game. You have a Browns that wants to and does run the ball and the Bills don’t run the ball real well so give me all these points and the under (both picks I gave out on Tuesday1).”…….Well I guess folks realized that being outside in Snowvermber 2.0 was a bad idea and this game moved to Detroit and that completely changes the handicapping…..pass
Game 4: Eagles @ Colts (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per the NFLNetwork, None of the last 11 teams who started a season 8-0 have won the Super Bowl
Philly has the 4th best 3rd down offense, converting 47% of the time, while the Colts have the 4th best 3rd down defense allowing 33.6% conversions
Per Football outsiders, the Colts have the worst offense and the Eagles have the 5th best offense
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Eagles -6.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - Congrats Jeff Saturday on your win! Your prize is Eagles, then Pittsburgh followed by trips to Dallas and Miami! I think that is not going to go well for them as the team they beat last week (the Raiders) have one of the worst defenses in the NFL (the worst if you go by DVOA). One thing I wonder if I am the only one to notice is that Jalen Hurts has been running less the last few weeks. It will be interesting to see if that continues. I think the Eagles win this one though and the question becomes do they let up late in the game and let the Colts come back in? I do not think they do as Sirianni is going to want to make a statement so I think the Eagles D is going to feast. Give me the Eagles and the under.
Game 5: Jets @ Patriots (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
In Week 8 the Pats won 22-17 in NJ
The last time Jets won a regular season game in NE Brett Favre was their QB and he hadn’t sent dick pics or stolen money from poor people yet!
Not really a stat, but I know a ton of Jets fans and they are VERY confident
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Jets are coming off the bye, but last time out they played really well to beat the Bills. Their defense is fast and tackles really well. The Saleh scheme relies on players’ talent as it is a rather simple scheme, but due to its simplicity, the players can play freely and quickly. They face a Patriots team that is also coming off a bye but is also coming off wins where their offense looked absolutely dreadful. That all said, Zach Wilson can look lost sometimes and I think Belichick’s D is going to have the ball in Wilson’s hand. I can’t see him doing it so Pats -3.
Game 6: Rams @ Saints (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Football Outsiders, the Rams have the 2nd worst special teams unit in the NFL
The Rams have the 25th-best RedZone offense scoring a TD 50% of the time; the Saints have the 5th-best RedZone defense allowing a TD only 48.3% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 1u Saints -3 (-110)
My 2 cents - As a Cowboys fan, one of the things we find most frustrating about our team’s lack of willingness to go “all-in”, but this game is a perfect example of the perils of that. Both of these teams have done that for years and now they are talent-poor, lacking depth, lacking draft picks, having cap problems, and going nowhere quickly. Kupp is now out and, I have to ask, how long do we think McVay will stick around? Will he be gone this off-season? I think so. The Saints seem to be sticking with Andy Dalton here and I am not 100% sure why, but it seems like every time you think this Saints team is done they get one of these games. This is a game the Saints NEED so give me the Cajuns.
Game 7: Lions @ Giants (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - Gusts up to 50 mph
Stat that might matter -
The Lions have the 5th best offense in the RedZone scoring a TD 69.7% of the time, while the Giants have the 2nd best RedZone D, allowing a TD 38.2% of the time
Titanic Model Output - NY Giants -3 (-110)
My 2 cents - Two teams who had results they really shouldn’t have had last week. The Giants were begging the Texans to be competitive last week and they just couldn’t do it. If you look at yardage the Giants only out-gained the Texans by ~20 yards. On the other hand, the Lions had to have a furious comeback and completely collapse, including a missed PAT2, by the Bears to pull off the win. This seems like a game of two bad teams and generally, you want to grab the points, but my model says the Giants. I will pass.
Game 8: Panthers @ Ravens (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - cold and windy
Stat that might matter -
Per Football Outsiders, the Ravens have the best special teams unit in the NFL
The Panthers will be starting Baker in this game
With Lamar at QB, the Ravens are 38-22-2 ATS in the 1H
Carolina has the worst 3rd down offense, converting 28.3% of the time, while the Ravens have the 5th best 3rd down defense allowing 33.7% conversions
Titanic Model Output - 1u Ravens -13 (-110)
My 2 cents - I have been about as down on the Panthers as I have been on any team as I really think they suck out loud. On the flip side, I LOVE the Ravens and think we are about to see them get on a run with the help of a super easy schedule starting with this game. They should absolutely crush the Panthers, especially early - Per Sharp Football analysis, the Ravens allow a TD on 14.3% of first-half drives (2nd best) and the Panthers score a TD on only 7.4% of their first-half drives (2nd worst) so give me Ravens 1H too.
Game 9: Washington @ Texans (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Houston was 1 of 6 in the RedZone last week vs the Giants
Per Football Outsiders, Washington has the 2nd best special teams unit and the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Washington -3 (-115)
My 2 cents - I know a lot of folks look at Washington’s ~150 yards vs the Eagles as a sign of getting things going, but they did that on about 50 runs. That means they really only ran the ball at a 3 YPC clip and that is not that great. That is not great. It feels like folks are too high on them coming off that win…..That said, Houston had every opportunity to beat the Giants last week and was absolutely abysmal. I keep staring at this game and my model likes Washington and I guess I will bet it, but I would not be shocked if all of sudden on Sunday we RedZone alerts and this game is like 24-3 Texans. If Washington wins it is because their stellar DL holds down the Texans’ rushing game and puts pressure on Mills. Give me Washington.
Game 10: Raiders @ Broncos (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stat that might matter -
If the Broncos scored 18 points in the regulation of every game they would be 8-1
The Raiders are 0-6 in 1-score games
Per Joe Osborne, the Broncos are 20-6 to the under since the start of last season
The Broncos have the worst RedZone offense, scoring a TD 35% of the time, in the NFL and the Raiders have the worst RedZone defense, allowing a TD 72.4% of the time
Denver has the 2nd worst 3rd down offense, converting 28.5%, while the Raiders have the 3rd worst 3rd down defense allowing 48.7% conversions
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Denver -2.5 (-120)
My 2 cents - This should be a fun matchup of an awful offense (Broncos) vs an awful defense (Raiders) and a decent offense (raiders) vs a very good offense (broncos). We know Hackett is a bad coach but is McDaniels? I am still holding out hope and Michael Lombardi had a good breakdown on his GM Shuffle podcast (32-minute mark). I still think the Broncos are trash and I am not sure I believe in either of these teams’ abilities to do anything that looks like good or competent football. Hard pass.
Game 11: Cowboys @ Vikings (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Vikings are 7-0 in 1-score games
Per Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have the 3rd best special teams unit in the NFL
Dallas was 195-0 in games3 when they led by 14+ points in the 4th quarter until they lost last week
Dallas has the 7th best offenses in the RedZone scoring a TD 65.4% of the time, while the Vikings have the 2nd worst RedZone D, allowing a TD 72% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dallas -1 (-117)
My 2 cents - The Cowboys’ run defense is an issue and has been all year going back to Week 1. The big thing for them is the teams get bored and then start to try and throw it. Now one thing that was a compensating factor last week was the grass field in Green Bay. It clearly slowed down the Cowboys players and there was a ton of slipping. Also, the Cowboys were up 14 in the 4th Q and were humming and winning that game if they do not have some awful penalties4. The Vikings have come back and won a ton of games they really should not have won (including that wild one last week). While I have been higher than most on the Vikings this season doesn't it seem like many people have suddenly jumped on the bandwagon? It really feels like it is so I am jumping off as this game really seems like an overrated team (Minny) vs a team that has gotten shit on all week (Dallas). I think this line is suspicious and makes me think the bookmakers are just betting folks to bet on the Vikings and want to be on the Cowboys' side so give me the Cowboys.
Game 12: Bengals @ Steelers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Weather Report - Mostly sunny, windy, and very cold
Stat that might matter -
Per BetLabs, Mike Tomlin is 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog
Per the Athletic, the Bengals should have DJ Reader back
Cinci has the 4th best offense in the RedZone scoring a TD 72.4% of the time, while the Steelers have the 6th best RedZone D, allowing a TD 50% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Cinci -4 (-105)
My 2 cents - Cinci’s defense is surprisingly good and they get Reader back which should make them even better. If the Bengals can keep Mixon going they are going to be realllllly hard to beat. What a fucking smackdown they laid on the Panthers a couple of weeks ago. They are coming off a bye so I realllllly want to go all in on them, but the Steelers have JJ Watt back and he ran riot all over the Bengals in Week 1. So what to do here? My model likes the Bengals and I am inclined to go with it even though I am ready to be pissed at myself that Tomlin boned me again this also seems like an under.
Game 13: Cheifs @ Chargers (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Stat that might matter -
In Week 2 the Chiefs beat the Chargers 27-24
The Chiefs have the 2nd best RedZone offense, scoring a TD 74.4% of the time, and the 3rd worst RedZone defense allowing a TD 70% of the time
KC has the 2nd best 3rd down offense, converting 51.9%, while the Chargers have the 8th worst 3rd down defense allowing 43.2% conversions
Titanic Model Output - 1u on KC -5 (-110)
My 2 cents - This is a really interesting game, but why is this line only 6 points? I know the Chiefs haven't been as all-powerful as we expect and will likely be without Juju after Andre Cisco tried to decapitate him last week. That said, what has anyone seen from the Chargers that make them think they will be able to stop the Chiefs at all? I know the Cheifs barely won in Week 2, but this Chargers team has no Joey Bosa, and both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are banged up. Give me the Chiefs and the over if Williams and/or Allen play.
Come hang out at the Gamblers Paradise Discord. We are having an awesome time chatting about sports and I will be running a discord-only giveaway!
All The Plays
Model Plays:
It does worry me that we are heavy on favorites but given how crazy it has been with ‘dogs winning every week I am rolling with most of it.
2u plays
Eagles -6.5
Bengals -4
1u plays
Titans +3 - Win
Saints -3
Ravens -13
Washington -3
Cowboys -1
Chiefs -5
0.5u plays
Broncos -2.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Voided
1.07u on Cle / Buf under 43.5 (-107) -Published TuesdayVoided
1.2u on Cleveland +8.5 (-120) -Published Tuesday1.22u on Pats -3 (-122)
1.05u on Baltimore -7 1H (-105)
0.5u on Eagles / Colts under 45.5 (-110)
0.5u on KC / LAC over 52 (-113)
0.25u on LV / Den under 41 (-110)
0.25u on Cowboys / Vikings over 48.5 (-110)
1u on 7pt teaser +124 on Lions +10 / Bills -0.5 / 49ers -1
0.5u on 6pt teaser -115 on Eagles -0.5 / Raiders +8.5
1.25u parlay -125 on Ravens -420 1H / Eagles -220 1H
1.01u parlay -101 on 49ers -270 1H / Eagles -220 1H
0.5u parlay +294 on Falcons -159 / Lions +142
0.5u parlay +186 on Cowboys -125 / Patriots -170
Player Props5
0.5u on Dameon Pierce under 78.5 rushing yards (-114)
0.25u on AJ Brown to score a TD +110
0.25 on Garrett Wilson over 53.5 receiving yards (-113)
0.25u on Saquon over 21.5 receiving yards +105
0.25u Joe Burrow to throw an INT (+100)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I got asked by a bunch of people what happens to the bets made earlier this week and, unfortunately, that will depend on your book. The vast majority of books will have already voided your bets as they would do if the location or date changes as such I am “voiding” my bets as well.
What is the percentage of missed PATs that come back to bite a team in the ass? 95%?
They were 180-0 in regular season games and 15-0 in the playoffs
Seriously, have you ever seen an offensive player called for offsides? I honestly didn’t know that was a thing.
Some other props I like that I may bet later Amari Cooper over receiving yards (not yet posted), Rashid Shaheed TD (+800), Josh Jacobs over 77.5 rushing yards (-114), CeeDee Lamb ATD (+110)