Reminder that last week’s newsletter was the last full version of this for this NFL season as this week and, especially next week, will be slimmed down for games that do not matter
Week 17
Things of note this week:
Advance stats are still telling us there are 6 clear teams over the rest (SF, Dallas, Philly, KC, Buffalo, and Cinci) but it also shows there is a cleat set of 4 that are next (Pats, Ravens, Jags, and Phins).
Okay, I know this game was last night, but Dak vs Dobbs was a battle of starting QBs who were picked at pick 135 in back-to-back years
Last week the weather was really bad on the East Coast, this week it is relatively warm and very little wind
Per CBS Sports HQ (via Todd Fuhrman), through Week 16:
Home teams: 120-115-5
Underdogs: 126-108-5
Unders: 131-107-2 - 55% of games going under the total this season is the highest rate since 1991
The games:
Game 1: Cowboys @ Titans (Thursday 8:15 pm) - Win
Game 2: Cardinals @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - We have Hollywood Brown under 925.5 receiving yards. With 2 games remaining he would need to average over 142.25 per game to lose our ticket
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I have no interest in watching of betting on this game and honestly, I really do not have much to say here so going to save my word count for other games. Pass.
Game 3: Bears @ Lions (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter - Goff at home has 20 TD’s and 3 INTs
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Detroit -6 (-108)
My 2 cents - The Lions got run ALL over last week to the tune of 320 yards and they have about a week to get that fixed before taking on this Bears rushing attack. As Mike Lombardi pointed out on his pod, Deshaun Elliott’s status will be a huge as he is the key to their ability to play nickel. I know my model likes the Lions, but this seems like a really odd line. I am going to lay the points as I feel like they are getting a little undervalued after getting their asses kicked.
Game 4: Broncos @ Chiefs (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - We have Russell Wilson under 4050.5 passing yards. With 2 games remaining he would need to average over 515.5 per game to lose our ticket
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Broncos have finally put Nathaniel Hackett out of his misery1 because his team legitimately just quit last week vs the Rams. This game should absolutely be a blow out, but when this was +13.5 my model liked it and I was going to bet it. Given that it has dropped it is now a pass and I am so glad as I do not want to care about this game.
Game 5: Dolphins @ Patriots (Sunday1:00 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on New England -2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - God that performance by Tua last week was about as bad as it gets in the 2nd half. It almost makes you wonder if there was something wrong with him, and there was!2! And yes, I did bet on them and am bitter I lost, not due to the concussion but because I expected they would be able to run it and they were, they just got bored and stopped. They take on a Pats team that last week managed to score 3 TD’s last week but somehow scored the minimum of 18 points. That was one of the wildest gambling swings from not gonna cover, to gonna cover, to not gonna cover, should win outright, to not gonna cover. This line seems rather fishy to me but then I looked and my model thinks the Pats should be giving even more points so I do not mind my model on the Pats for minimal risk, but I don’t expect them to get a blow out, so I like the Phins on a teaser.
Game 6: Colts @ Giants (Sunday1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Since Jeff Saturday took over the Colts have been outscored 90-9 in the 4th quarter
Titanic Model Output - 2u on NY Giants -5.5 (-111)
My 2 cents - Giants are another team leaving the Vikings game wondering how they lost, but this week they will be wondering how they got so lucky to play Nick Foles. Good Lord did he look awful last week, and that team looked like it quit. The Giants need this game so they can avoid having tpo play Philly next week. I think the Giants are going to crush the Colts and I like Giants to win this big and yes, I have seen this line has gone from -3.5 to -6 and it does not bother me at all.
Game 7: Saints @ Eagles (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update -
Saints - We have Saints to win the AFC South so they need to win this game and will need a little help
Eagles - We have Philly to win the NFC East and be the #1 seed and any win by the Eagles clinches both
Stat that might matter -
So here is an interesting thing I have been hearing from my sources - Hurts has an SC joint sprain and where that gets complicated is that you can’t inject that with pain killers so until that thing is healthy, he is going to be in a ton of pain and might not be able to play.
The Eagles own the Saints 1st round pick next year so an Eagles win improves that asset
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Philly -6.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - I know the Saints won easily last week and it was a bit boy win, but the Browns are awful. Given the above it will almost certainly be Minshew Mania again this week and the fact they lose last week had nothing to do with how he played. This is a hat and t-shirt game for the Eagles, and I think they win and cover against this really lack luster Saints team as the Philly D seems to play really well against mediocre QB’s (Hi Andy Dalton, that is you) and quite poorly against good QB’s (take a look at their stats this year and last against top 10 QBs).
Game 8: Panthers @ Buccaneers (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - We have Panters under 6.5 wins and they have 6 so any win costs us our ticket
Stat that might matter -
Per Ben Fawkes, Brady is an NFL worst 3-11-1 ATS, and they are 1-11-1 in their last 13 games
Per Joe Osborne, you would be 13-0 if you teased the Bucs last 13 opponents by 6 points
Per Warren Sharp, Panthers are 0-4 against winning teams
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - This Buccaneers team sucks3. I honestly do not know what is worse, being down 16-6 against Trace McSorley or needing OT to beat that shit show of a team. Brady once again looked really bad for 3.5 quarters as he is just throwing the ball sooooo quickly before they got going. They take on a Panthers team that took the Lions team behind the house and beat the ever-loving shit out of them. As I said last week “I know my model like the Lions, but I think the Panthers are going to win this game”. What a performance by the Panthers with 320 yards on the ground. Steve Wilks has that team playing physically on both sides of the ball. I worry for the Panthers how much the loss of Horn will be felt specifically this week and please miss me with Josh Norman being a difference maker. I am going to pass, but I like the Panthers on the teaser, and I would not be surprised if they win outright.
Game 9: Browns @ Washington (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - We have Myles Garrett under 13.5 sacks, and he has that number already, so any half sack and we lose our ticket
Stat that might matter -
Per Action Network, teams are 0-13 SU in the week after they play the 49ers
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Washington -1 (-124)
My 2 cents - We are seeing this Washington team turn back to Wentz and we are seeing this line get bet down from -2.5 to -1, but for the life of me I can’t understand why folks are still buying into this Cleveland team. I know the weather was bad last week, but his performances are terrible every week. Teh Washington D is decent, and their rush D (11th by DVOA) is set up to stop what Cleveland is trying to do. Give me Washington.
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Game 10: Jaguars @ Texans (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
This game is meaningless for the Jags as their playoff future comes down to next week vs the Titans
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Jacksonville -4 (-108)
My 2 cents - Given that this game means next to nothing for the Jags other than in some super small percentage of scenarios it is hard to know what to do because there is a school of thought that this young team really should play hard in this game and not take their foot off the accelerator. I think they are by far the better team but somehow, they actually lost to Houston earlier this year. The Texans continue to be frisky, but one thing to keep an eye on is that they currently hold the number 1 pick in the draft. A win here and a loss by Chicago changes that dynamic. I do not like betting games with no relevance so pass.
Game 11: 49ers @ Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Stat that might matter - Raiders have blown 5 halftime leads of 7+ points, which is an NFL record
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I wrote this on Tuesday - “The Raiders D is severely suspect and now they have lost Perriman and Chandler Jones. This is a team that just does not play smart football and you really have to ask whether Carr will be there next year as he has zero guarantees left on his deal and I wonder if this ends up as the landing spot for Jimmy G (though I still think the Jets are the most likely).” Well, it now seems like Carr is almost all but gone. This line swung hard and for my model went from a 1u bet on San Fran to a Pass. I think the 49ers win this game, but 10 points is a lot…but there is no way I am betting on Stidham against that D so pass.
Game 12: Jets @ Seahawks (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I have no idea if he is healthy but the Jets get Mike White back none too soon because they looked AWFUL at QB last week. This is an interesting spot as Geno and Pete Carrol take on their old team in the Jets, but to me the Jets elite D is going to crush this Seattle OL as Salah has spent a lot of time facing this Seattle team and (per PFF) their OL has the lowest pass blocking grades in the NFL over the last 5 weeks. I am going to bet the Jets.
Golf is almost back!!
While the NFL season has been a real struggle, my PGA Tour picks have been incredibly profitable during 2022 and the PGA tour starts the meat of their season next week! Make sure to check out my Golf Refresher newsletter that went out yesterday.
Game 13: Vikings @ Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Futures Update - We have Aaron Rodgers under 4100.5 passing yards. With 2 games remaining he would need to average over 384.5 per game to lose our ticket
Stat that might matter -
Vikings have now won 11 1-score games (they are 11-0) this season which is an NFL record4
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Minnesota +3.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - The Packers were gifted a win last week. Their D can’t stop the run at all, but thankfully for them Miami decided to stop running and instead throw the ball to them and before you tell me how good Rodgers looked, the Dolphins D sucks too. Once again, the Vikings are getting absolutely no respect, but as I said last week, styles make fights and this one is a bad matchup for Green Bay as I expect the Vikings to run it down their throats and walk away with the win and even if they do not win, they only play close games, and you can push if they lose on a last second FG.
Game 14: Rams @ Chargers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Stat that might matter - The last time the Chargers scored 30 or more was Week 5
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on LA Chargers -6.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - The lack of home field advantage that both of these teams have in this building is so shocking that no team should be home for this game. Okay to the real analysis, the love the Rams are getting this week is a bit weird to me. Yes, they stomped the Broncos last week and looked really good doing it, but I have watched football all season and to me that was the Broncos fully quitting on Hackett and not an indication that the Rams are back to their Super Bowl winning ways of last year. The Chargers feel like they should be better than they are and I can’t wait to see what Justin Herbert looks like next year with competent coach. This seems like a few too many points, but I am rolling with my model as it is limited risk.
Game 15: Steelers @ Ravens (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Baltimore -2.5 (-108)
My 2 cents - This game is always a war, and I can’t wait to watch it. The Ravens are the epitome of a team that is very different if you watch games vs look at box scores. They absolutely DOMINATED the Falcons last week and had 2 dropped TD passes that easily could have seen them blow them out even more than they did. Now Lamar has not practiced yet and so we get Huntley again and in the 4 games without Lamar they have not scored more than 17 points. I think this is going to be a defensive battle.
All The Plays
Model Plays:
2u plays
Vikings +3.5
Giants -5.5
Ravens -2.5
1u plays
Lions -6
Eagles -6.5
Washington -1
Jaguars -4
0.5u plays
Cowboys -10 -Win
Patriots -2.5
Chargers -6.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 1.4u parlay -140 on Cowboys -475 (Win) / NY Giants -240
Pending - 0.5u parlay +114 on Cowboys -475 (Win) / NY Jets -130
Pending - 0.5u 7pt teaser +127 on Cowboys -3 (Win) / Panthers +10 / Vikings +10.5
1u 7pt teaser +120 on Giants +1 / Raiders +17 / Vikings +10
0.5u 6pt teaser -110 on Lions pk / Eagles -0.5
0.5u 6pt teaser -110 on Panthers +9.5 / Eagles -0.5
1.25u on NY Jets to win (-125)
1.25u on Seattle TT under 21 (-125)
1u on Chi / Det over 52 (-110)
1u on Min / GB over 48 (-110)
0.5u on Ind / NYG under 39 (-110)
0.25u on SF / LV over 42.5 (-110)
Player Props
Win - 0.5u on Dak Prescott over 240.5 passing yards (-135)
0.5u on Justin Fields over 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
0.5u on Andy Dalton to throw an INT (-102)
0.25u on Geno Smith to throw an INT (+118)
0.25u on Saquon Barkley over 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
0.25u on Aaron Rodgers to throw an INT (+120)
0.25u on Najee Harris under 59.5 rushing yards (-122)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
Once again, this hire NEVER made sense. He wasn’t great at Syracuse as OC and had Marrone calling plays, they all went to Buffalo and got fired, went to Jacksonville where Marrone eventually took over and took away his play calling and fired him. He then went to Green Bay where he (checks notes) didn’t call plays AND had Aaron Rodgers which I guess meant he was good now……oh and they turned their back on hiring Dan Quinn for that? You get what you deserve….It also makes me want to vomit as I am hearing folks would not be surprised if he ended up in Dallas as an advisor next year.
Warren Sharp did a great job breaking down the stats before and after that hit and it is pretty striking.
Okay, an aside. Fox Sports’ David Helman is exactly right “Feeling real, real likely that it’s going to be Cowboys @ Bucs on wildcard weekend. Everything about the last two months suggests Dallas is a much better football team than Tampa Bay. But I’ve watched too much Cowboys football to be completely convinced of that.”
FYI get ready for this to regress HARD next year