Legendary NFL Head Coach Bill Parcels always said to look at the NFL season in quarters. We are now ~25% of the way through the NFL season and I wanted to talk about evaluating what we are seeing on the field.
Models are incredibly useful but can also be flawed/biased based on the person/people who built them (including my own). One of the things I like to do periodically is to see if my model and what I think I am seeing when I do my evaluation (e.g., watching on Sundays, talking to contacts, watching film) coincide.
One of the things my eyes have been telling me is that it seems that most of the best defenses reside in the NFC while the better offenses are in the AFC. Based on how my model calculates it, right now 5 of the top 7 defenses are NFC teams and 7 of the top 10 offenses are AFC teams.
Why is this important?
If systemic risk exists it can be mitigated by adjustments
It gives me confidence that while individual results may go against me, my model is telling me that my eyes roughly1 align with the analytics I believe are indicative of team quality
When handicapping games / the rest of the season it will be interesting to see which dominates more when defensive and offensive teams meet.
Now all that being said, remember we are still early in the season so be careful of any conclusions you are drawing at this moment, as Vic Tafur points out, the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers all made the playoffs last season after a 1-3 start and if you go back and look at power rankings after Week 4, you will find how off they were when compared to the final results.
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This is the first week of my in-season model generating Titanic Model outputs2 so just something to keep in mind as we go forward. In theory, the model should get more accurate as the weeks go on so results this week could be funky.
The model is risking a lot of units this week so I am personally only playing the 1u plays and above.
Week 5
Game 1: Colts @ Broncos (Thursday 8:15 pm) - Pass - Well that was a game of football
Game 2: Giants @ Packers (Sunday 9:30 am3) -
Stat that might matter - The last 6 teams favored by 7+ points in London are 6-0 ATS
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on NYG +9 (-125)
My 2 cents - Last week I bet against the Giants rather than betting on the Bears and I would do it again. The Giants won that game with a total of 71 passing yards and they won’t have Toney this week. On the flip side, the Packers were one first down away from losing during overtime to the Pats’ 3rd string QB.
Verdict - I personally want as little to do with this game as possible so I pass.
Game 3: Steelers @ Bills (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Ben Fawkes, The Steelers are the only team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to never be a 14-point (or greater) underdog.
Tomlin’s teams are 32-23-2 ATS as a road dog, and 47-38-1 ATS after a loss
Titanic Model Output - 1u Steelers +14.5 (-116)
My 2 cents - This Matt Canada offense is brutal to watch, but Kenny Pickett coming in gave them a bit of juice, two of his picks were tipped balls. I really worry for the Steelers’ young QB against Leslie Frasier though they have a ton of injuries. On the flip side, the Bills team really should have lost last week and they do have the Chiefs next week and a ton of 13 seconds talk coming up so do they have a letdown with what should be a walkover?
Verdict - I am following my numbers here as this is a lot of points so Steelers +14.5, but this is hard to stomach so I do not fault anyone for not coming along for the ride.
Game 4: Chargers @ Browns (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter - 2nd week in a row Chargers are on the road
Titanic Model Output - 3u on Cleveland +2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I liked the Chargers last week and took them as my survivor pick, but something they did in that game scared me. They were killing the Texans and then they let up and let them right back into the game. The Chargers D looked terrible last week and they also looked bad next year so we need to talk about their HC who is supposedly a defensive mastermind. What is scaring me most about this game though is how bad the Browns D looked vs the Falcons as they let them run the ball at will, but my model thinks there is a ton of value here. One thing to keep an eye on is that, per Tom Pelissero, the Chargers might be relying on Taylor Bertolet to kick in this game (yeah, I have never heard of him either).
Verdict - Betting is about finding value and sometimes that is going to have you holding your breath when you submit your ticket, this is one of them, but let’s go Brownies +2.5!
Game 5: Bears @ Vikings (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Are the Vikings going to be the teaser / ML team?
Per Frankie Taddeo, the Bears are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 vs NFC North
Justin Fields is 3-9 ATS as an underdog
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Bears +7.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Bears’ offense is so bad that it lost to a Giants team that only could amass 71 yards passing last week. I am not sure this offense would look worse if the cast of the Hulu show The Bear4 was out there in uniform. Seriously, could Justin Fields look worse? For the Vikings, I know they seem to be putting up big stats, or at least Justin Jefferson does, but I see a disjointed offense that spends far too much time in 3rd and long and their D can’t seem to stop the run.
Verdict - HARD PASS, but I expect this to be in tons of teasers and I won’t be doing that.
Game 6: Lions @ Patriots (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per NFL Research, the Lions are averaging 35.0 ppg on offense and giving up 35.3 ppg on defense. The resulting combined 281 points are the most through 4 games in NFL history.
Per Dane Brugler, Zappe was the first rookie QB this year to throw a TD pass
The Lions are 0-9-1 on the road under Dan Cambell
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Lions +3 (-110)
My 2 cents - Man o man did the Pats come ever so close to pulling off that win last week? Zappe and Hoyer both played okay, but what you see the Pats doing is understanding that if they run the ball successfully, play good defense and special teams, and reduce mistakes on offense they can hang with teams. Now I have been saying the Lions’ Defense is bad, but last week was unbelievable as they did not make the Seahawks punt a single time.
Verdict - That all said, Goff is playing shockingly well. Give me the Lions +3.5 (-125), yes I bought the hook.
Game 7: Seahawks @ Saints (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter - Geno Smith is 10-2 ATS in his last 12 games.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Seattle +5.5
My 2 cents - The Seahawks never had to punt last week versus that HORRIBLE Lions defense and Geno is really playing quite well. If you believe in ESPN’s QBR, Geno is a top 5 QB so far this season. I was high on the Saints coming into this season and have seen nothing I have been really impressed with, but their D seems okay.
Verdict - Just seems like two bad teams so I will take the points Seahawks +5.5.
Game 8: Dolphins @ Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Tua is going to miss this game5 so we will see Teddy Bridgewater
Per Raheem Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS as a starting including 24-6 on the road.
Dolphins are 13-7 ATS as a favorite over the last 5 years
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Miami -3.5 (-103)
My 2 cents - I like Miami here and let me tell you why. First, they are getting 10 days rest (aka the mini bye) and have a defense that I think is going to test this young Jets offense, especially with their blitz-heavy scheme. The Jets also really should not have beaten the Steelers last week and let’s be honest, the Steelers suck so beating them is not that much of an accomplishment
Verdict - I really like Miami -3.5 as I think they are going to use their D to win this game. I would buy the hook.
Game 9: Falcons @ Bucs (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Falcons were 7 for 19, 139 yards, 1 INT, and 28.5 QBR last week
Per DraftKings, the Falcons are the only team 4-0 ATS this year
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - We generally think of the Chiefs as a pass-first and pass-happy offense and we generally think of the Bucs as a team you do not want to run against, but last Sunday night KC just absolutely ran it down their throats (189 yards on the ground). The Bucs will get no reprieve as they are now facing a Falcons team that ran for over 200 yards vs the Browns last week, though they will be without Cordarrelle Patterson.
Verdict - I am glad that this is a Pass as I think this could really go either way to me.
Game 10: Titans @ Washington (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Raheem Palmer, this line started Titans +3.5
Per Ian Rapoport, Titans WR Treylon Burks will be out for a while
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I know folks were surprised by what the Titans did to the Colts last week as that was a team’s defense that is set up for the Titans to be successful. This week will be more of a challenge for them as I expect the Commies to put up more of a fight in the running game. While they were pretty resoundingly beaten last week Washington held Dallas to only 2 YPC and I think things have gone a little overboard with Washington hate.
Verdict - I am going to pass, but do not be surprised when you see the Titans down below.
Game 11: Texans @ Jags (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Frankie Taddeo, Texans are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS last 8 vs Jags
Jags have lost outright the last 4 times they were favored, 3 of them coming vs Houston
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - In my newsletter last week when I took the Jags I said “I am a little worried about Jags OL here” and I should I have been more worried. The Eagles’ DL owned them all afternoon. That said, the Jags should have won that game last week, but Lawrence’s inability to hold on to the ball (4 lost fumbles and a pick) cost them the game.
Verdict - I reallllllly wanted to bet on the Jags, but I am glad my model is passing as I have enough risk.
Game 12: 49ers @ Panthers (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Baker has the worst QBR in the NFL while both Corral and Darnold are on IR
Panthers are 1-26 (with 24 straight losses) under Rhule when the opponent scores at least 17 points
49ers are averaging 10 ppg on the road this season, 25.5 ppg at home
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Carolina +7 (-125)
My 2 cents - I know last week the Panthers were the darling of the bookmakers and some famous football personalities had them as the dark horse for the year but this team sucks and sucks out loud. Their D is good and they were in control of that game at half as they kept Kyler Murray in the pocket, but their offense is BRUTAL (78 total points, 14 of which were scored by the D). I wonder if we see PJ Walker6 this week instead of Baker.
Verdict - I will not risk my hard-earned money on Baker Mayfield - pass - and I would not be shocked at all that this is a beat down so bad that Rhule is fired this week.
Game 13: Cowboys @ Rams (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Todd Archer, Cooper Rush is the first QB to win his first 4 career starts since Kyle Allen won 5 in a row in 2019. More importantly, Rush is 4-0 ATS.
Dallas has not given up 20 or more points in their first 4 games, the first time in the Jerry Jones era
Titanic Model Output - 3u on Dallas +5.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Okay, as you know I am a Cowboys fan. I have seen all the talk about Rush staying as starting QB when Dak comes back and that is hilariously stupid. Rush is a fine backup, but Dak is FAR better than him so can we stop with the nonsense?! Now, the Cowboys’ D is legit scary good and Rush’s performance last week was more impressive than the others he has had as he had no meaningful running game to help take the pressure off him. Watching the Rams Monday night made me concerned their OL won’t be able to hold up against the Cowboys’ pass rush as they struggled against the front 7 of San Fran, especially down 2 guards and starting their 3rd string center.
Verdict - The Rams have one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL so this will be 75% Cowboys fans and the Cowboys are "nobody's underdog". Give me Dallas and the points
Game 14: Eagles @ Cardinals (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Eagles have scored 9 total points in the 2nd halves of their last 3 games
Per Peter King, entering October in 2020 there were 7 undefeated teams, in 2021 there were 5, this year only 1 (Eagles)
The Arizona Cardinals have yet to score a point in the first quarter of their games
Per Frankie Taddeo, Arizona is 0-7 SU and ATS at home
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Eagles were down 14-0 to the Jags before scoring 29 straight points, Eagles DBs Maddox and Slay were injured last week. If either play, they could be compromised. That said the Cardinals had been so all over the place I am not entirely sure what to make of them. The Eagles’ kicker might also not play.
Verdict - I am going to pass and while I don’t think the Cards are very good I think this game might end up being close so I like the Eagles early.
Game 15: Bengals @ Ravens (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Last year Bengals scored a combined 82 points vs the Ravens
The Ravens are 2-2 and they have trailed for a total of 14 seconds this season
Baltimore is 12-2-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since drafting Lamar
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Baltimore -3.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - Tell me if you have heard this before, the Ravens built a sizable lead and then blew it to a team they really should have beaten. What makes matters worse is that at 20-20 they had the ball deep in Bills territory with about 4min left and they went for it. I would have kicked the FG, but what is mind-boggling was the explanation of Jim Harbaugh that made NO SENSE.
Verdict - I am worried the Bengals will be able to throw on the Ravens, but I also really love the Ravens so let’s go with the model Ravens -3 (buy the hook).
MNF game will be sent out on Monday.
All The Plays
Model Plays:
3u Plays
Browns +2.5
Cowboys +5.5
1u Plays:
Steelers +14.5
Lions +3
Seahawks +5.5
Dolphins -3.5
Ravens -3.5
0.5u Plays (I am not personally betting on these):
Giants +9
Bears +7.5
Panthers +7
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 0.55u 6pt teaser -110 on Colts +9.5 / Cardinals +11
1u on Carolina Panthers Team Total under 16.5 -125
1u on Lions / Patriots over 45.5 -113
0.5u on Eagles -3 1H line (-125)
1u 7pt teaser +135 on Giants +16 / Bears +14.5 / Falcons +17
0.5u parlay on SF -280 / Titans -125 +144
0.5u parlay on Dolphins -175 / Titans -125 +183
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +785 - Dallas +195 / Seattle +200
Player Props
Loss - 0.25u on Michael Pittman Jr. any time TD +170
0.5u on Justin Herbert over 0.5 INTs -105
0.5u on Christian McCaffrey under 53.5 rushing yards -125
0.25u Rodgers over 230.5 passing yards -115
0.25u over 3.5 FGs in NE / Det game +120
0.25u on Defense or ST in Mia / NYJ to score a TD +240
0.25u Travis Ettiene ATD +160
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
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Survivor Thoughts
We are still rolling along here and I have gotten a lot of great feedback so let’s keep rolling! Here are the ones I am passing on:
Jaguars - The Jags were up 14-0 last week and gave up 29 straight points while turning the ball over 5 times. Houston was frisky last year and they remain so.
Buccaneers - Tom Brady seems to be nursing a ton of injuries and, if you believe the reports, his personal life is falling apart. Would I be surprised if the Falcons won? Yes, but this came could be super close and the NFL can be weird at times
Vikings - The Bears are awful and Vikings should kill them, but what is giving me pause is that they didn’t take the post-London bye week, they can’t seem to stop the run and this is going to be a super public ML play.
My options are going to be:
Bills - I know this is going to be the most played one, but for good reason. Can the Steelers score with the Bills? I seriously doubt it.
Packers - I think they should wipe the floor with the Giants, but the only thing that gives me a little pause is that London games can get super strange
49ers - This seems like they should destroy the Panthers
I am going with the Bills as my pick for Week 5, but I would be pretty comfortable with the Packers too7
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I say roughly as the rankings and even some of the teams included are not ones I might have said if you asked me offhand, for example, I would not have said the Packers are the 4th best D
As you may know, my picks columns include the results from my Titanic Model, but what you do not know is that it is actually 2 models. 1 model is what I use in the offseason to create my futures tickets and the picks for the early weeks of the season. Around Week 4 of Week 5, I flip to my in-season model that starts to weigh the stats of this current year with some other factors like last year and the off-season model to come up with plays. Last year I switched over in Week 4 and it was a disaster (-12u in one week) so this year I am doing the switch in Week 5
This is taking place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London so note the early start time for this one #COYS!
Highly recommend this show by the way
I would love to go off on a rant about the Tua concussion disaster that we all saw play out on our screens last week and I likely feel the same way you do, but at this point, I do not have anything new or interesting to say other than we should all pray for his full and speedy recovery and for the NFL/NFLPA to continue to improve player head safety.
Note that PJ Walker started for the Panthers last year and won in Arizona
Week 1- Ravens; Week 2 - Rams; Week 3 - Bengals; Week 4 - LAC