The NFL Playoffs are here!!!
As you will see, I am going back to the style of preview that I used to do every Friday. Unfortunately, it is not feasible for me to do it week in and week out anymore, but, for the playoffs, I figured I would turn back the clock and do more detail!
I break down each game and give (what I think is) some interesting info and, at the bottom, I give you my bets that I am making for the week.
I hope you enjoy it.
-T
Wild Card Weekend
Game 1 - Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans:
Time, date, and broadcast - Saturday, Jan 13, 4:30 pm (ET); NBC
Line movement
Open1: Texans +2 (-110); O/U 43.5 (-110)
1/10 6pm: Texans +2.5 (-108); O/U 44.5 (-110)
Now: Texans +2 (-105); O/U 44.5 (-110)
Stats that might matter
These teams played in Week 16 in Houston and the Browns won 36-22
The Browns are the stingiest 3rd down defense in the league, allowing conversion just 29.1% of the time, while the Texans offense is 19th, converting at a rate of 37.9%. Interestingly, the Texans have the 5th-best 3rd down D with a 35.7% conversion rate, while the Brown offense is 4th worst at converting at just 31.6%.
The Browns D are only giving up 13.9 points at home but are giving up 29.6 points on the road
Since 2002, QBs making their first playoff start vs a QB with playoff experience are 17-35-1 and 17-36 SU - This applies to Houston (Stroud), Miami (Tua), Steelers (Duck), and Packers (Love).
Per John Ewing, the Browns were joint-2nd-best in the league at 11-6 ATS this season. Ewing also points out that Flacco is 11-4 ATS in the playoffs, including 3-1 as a favorite.
Per Griff, when two Wild Card teams play after meeting in the last three weeks of the season, the over is 15-4 (78.9%)
My breakdown of the game - This was so close to the Browns heading to Indy for what would have been a far better match-up for them. The reason I say that is that I expect that the Gus Bradley D would be much easier for their scheme than what I expect from DeMeco Ryans. Yes, Flacco put up a ton of points on their last go-around, but do not forget that the Texans had to start Case Keenum and that line was only 3.5 - that seems VERY disrespectful to Stroud. Once they turned to Davis Mills they moved the ball well and quickly, but the game was well out of hand at that point. Everyone seems to think the Browns will walk through the Texans here, but I am not so sure. At some point, Joe Flacco is going to turn into Joe Flacco, right? Do we think Amari is going to be able to roll up 260+ yards receiving again? This is also a game where folks seem to think there is going to be a fair bit of scoring, especially after the last game had 58 points. I go back and forth on how I feel about it. I lean towards the under but think it is really not something I am going to touch.
Props I like
Amari Cooper under 75.5 receiving yards (-135)
Devin Singletary over 13.3 receiving yards (-117)
Joe Flacco over 0.5 INTs (-185)
Game 2 - Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs:
Time, date, and broadcast - Saturday, Jan 13, 8:00 pm (ET); Peacock
Weather Report - High 6, low -10, breezy, bitter cold, the wind chill could be -20.
Line movement
Open: KC -3.5 (-105); O/U 45 (-110)
1/10 6pm: KC -4.5 (-105); O/U 44 (-110)
Now: KC -4.5 (-110); O/U 44 (-105/-115)
Stats that might matter
These teams played in Week 9 in KC and the Chiefs won 21-14, in Germany
Per Sheil Kapadia, the Dolphins were 1-5 with a -91 point differential against playoff teams; only the Giants and Commanders were worse
Per John Ewing, the Chiefs are joint-best 12-5 to the under this year2
Per Evan Abrams, Tua is 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS away from home vs. winning teams; Further. Miami is 8-19 SU last 20 years in sub-40-degree weather
Per Griff, road dogs in the Wild Card round that average more yards per play than their opponent are 16-1-1 ATS (94.1%)
Per Joe Osborne, the Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 15 of 17 games
My breakdown of the game - This is an interesting one to me and as I think in this game we are seeing a team that is overvalued vs a team that is undervalued. We all watched the Dolphins get dominated on Sunday night by the Bills so I think that is holding down their expectations. While folks still think “Mahomes and the Chiefs”, while I think they continue to be incredibly unimpressive on offense and their ability to produce explosive plays is lacking. The Chiefs have also been battling a bunch of soft tissue injuries which should hamper them a bit. They take on a Dolphins team that is getting a little healthier with Waddle and Mostert back, but the real X-factor is going to be Tyreek taking on his old team. I think he could have a monster game. One thing to keep an eye on is that the Chiefs know Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme quite well given his time in Denver (where they never lost), but that defense is REALLY hurt. They are picking up dudes off the street to try and play this game. Yes, the Chiefs beat the Dolphins earlier this year, but the yardage would have implied a Dolphins win 19-18.
Props I like
Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 rushing yards (-115)
Chris Jones over 0.25 sacks (-120)
Game 3 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills:
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Jan 14, 1:00 pm (ET); CBS
Weather Report - High 25, low 17, cold, windy, lake effect snow, wind of 25mph, gusts up to 40-45
NOTE: There have been rumors over the last 24 hours that this game might be moved to Cleveland- if that is the case, most books will void the bets you had placed before that move.
Line movement
Open: Buffalo -10 (-110); O/U 41.5 (-115/-105)
1/10 6pm: Buffalo -10 (-105); O/U 36 (-107/-113)
Now: Buffalo -9.5 (-107); O/U 34 (-110)
Stats that might matter
The Bills have the best 3rd down offense in the league, converting at rate of 49.8%, while the Steelers’ D is middle of the pack allowing conversions 39.1% of the time.
TJ Watt is out for this game. Per Evan Abrams, the Steelers are 1-10 SU and 4-6-1 ATS since he was drafted in the 11 games without Watt
Per Joe Osborne, the Bills are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a double-digit favorite (playoffs included)
Per Ben Fawkes, over the past 20 years, in playoff games with an O/U of 45 or lower and a temperature below 25 degrees, the OVER is 14-4-1, this applies to KC/Mia too
My breakdown of the game - The first thing we have to talk about is how the total has plummeted. That total drop is all about when folks realized the weather predictions and how it has gotten progressively worse. While I am not a fan of Warren Sharp for many reasons, I have to give him credit. He was early on this and had his followers get in on the 41 number. One thing I find incredibly interesting is that this line hasn’t moved much while the total moved a bunch. Look, I can’t really think of a world where Mason Rudolph goes in and wins this game in Buffalo, but with the wind like it is supposed to be, we will just see these guys running the ball at each other which could make this closer than it would be if they were playing indoors. The trick for the Steelers could be the turnovers by the Bills and Josh LOVES throwing the ball away. Also, miss me with all the talk about Von Miller’s injury, he’s been awful.
Props I like
Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (-115)
Jaylen Warren over 17.5 receiving yards (-115)
Game 4 - Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys:
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Jan 14, 4:30 pm (ET); Fox
Line movement
Open: Dallas -7 (-115); O/U 49.5 (-110)
1/10 6 pm: Dallas -7.5 (-106); O/U 50.5 (-110)
Now: Dallas -7 (-110); O/U 51 (100/-120)
Stats that might matter
Dak Prescott is 73-41 in his career, but he’s 32-8 vs the NFC East and 41-33 against everyone else
The Cowboys have the 2nd-best 3rd down offense in the league, converting at rate of 48.3%, while the Packers’ D is 8th worst allowing conversions 41.1% of the time.
Based on DVOA, the Packers have the 2nd-worst special teams unit in the NFL, while the Cowboys have the 10th-best
Dallas is on a 16-game win streak at home
Per Bobby Belt, in 3 career games vs Dallas, Aaron Jones has 3-100-yard games, 6TDs, 157 scrimmage yards per game, and over 5 yards per carry.
Per Joe Osborne, the Cowboys have gone over their team total in 7 of 8 home games
Per Peter Schrager, are the youngest to make the playoffs in a non-strike season since the 1982 Patriots.
Per Sharky, the Packers were 1-5 ATS and SU on the road outside their division (against ATL, LV, Den, Pit, NYG, and Car).
My breakdown of the game - Let’s start with what worries me here - back in the summer when I published my futures newsletter I said I expected the Packers young offense to get better as the season went along and they did3. They have looked really good of late. I also worry about Mike McCarthy as Dallas' head coach making this game too personal (as he did last year4) and that could get in the way of the team being successful. That all said, I really like Dallas in this spot. This line seems like the book is offering you a -EV price, even when they offered the hook, that they pray you take. This Dallas offense should eat up Joe Barry's defense and if you look at the Packers’ throughout the season, part of the reason they played well later is that they started to play teams a 2nd time. I think that lack of knowledge and the scheme advantage by the Cowboys’ offense vs the Packers’ defense means this is going to be a Cowboys win and cover. That all said, if the Packers commit to the run, this could be a problem for Dallas as they have never played well against Aaron Jones. If Dallas can get up early and force the ball into Love’s hands this should be a win. The consensus seems to be that this is going to be a pretty high-scoring game, but I think we see more defense than is expected. While I like the under for the game, I am going to play in the derivative market for a play.
Props I like
Jordan Love under 248.5 passing yards (-105)
Jordan Love over 0.5 INTs (-135)
Tony Pollard over 14.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Gamblers Paradise Discord
I know I talk a lot about my Discord, but Wild Card Weekend is exactly the type of sporting weekend this community was built for!
We have these amazing 6 NFL games, but that is just the start! We also have a great mix of experienced bettors and sports fans in there talking about the NBA, NHL, College Basketball, UFC, and golf - all of which have games/events this weekend!
I also post Discord exclusive “no-official” plays that are tracked separately from substack that have been incredibly profitable:
You also are missing out on possible giveaways and fun competitions! We just closed out our College Football Bowl Pick’em and are gearing up for a March Madness contest! Every one of these are free to join and come with real money prizes.
Game 5 Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions:
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Jan 14, 8:00 pm (ET); NBC
Line movement
Open: Detroit -3 (-110); O/U 52 (-105/-115)
1/10 6pm: Detroit -3 (-120); O/U 51.5 (-113/107)
Now: Detroit -3 (-110); O/U 51.5 (-115/-105)
Stats that might matter
Based on DVOA, the LA Rams have BY FAR the worst special teams unit in the NFL, but the Lions’ special teams is only middle of the road
The last time the Lions won a playoff game was 1991
Per John Ewing, the Lions were the joint-best to the over this year at 11-6
Per John Ewing, the Lions were a league-best 12-5 ATS this season
Per Griff, When two teams meet for the first time that season in the Wild Card round and the total is 39 or higher, the over is 3-25-1 (10.7%) - this would apply to this game and GB/Dallas
Per Joe Osborne, these teams are a combined 11-3 to the Over since Week 12
My breakdown of the game - We have Stafford going back to Detriot and Goff going up against his old team. As a Cowboys fan, I would absolutely love a Rams upset here. I want them to have to go to San Fran next week and take care of business that my team likely can’t but I just do not see it. The McVay offense is all about establishing the run and then running the play-action behind that once you have forced the defense to react. Well, the Lions are amazing against the run and do it primarily with their front four and their speedy LBs. That can and should present problems for the Rams so it will be fascinating to see how McVay adjusts to that. If the Rams can throw the ball, they should be able to move the ball on the Lions, but with the pressure the Lions can generate, Stafford’s eyes could drop if he starts to get hit. I know a lot of folks are on the Rams, but I really think the Lions win this and I think we might see an absolute ton of points.
Props I like
Kyren Williams under 81.5 rushing yards (-113)
Aidan Hutchinson over 0.25 sacks (-120)
Game 6 Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Time, date, and broadcast - Monday, Jan 15, 8:15 pm (ET); ESPN/ABC
Weather Report - around 60, light rain, 7-10mph of wind
Line movement
Open: Tampa Bay +3 (-107); O/U 44.5 (-110)
1/10 6pm: Tampa Bay +3 (-110); O/U 44 (-110)
Now: Tampa Bay +3 (-115); O/U 43 (-110)
Stats that might matter
These teams played in Week 3 in Tampa and the Eagles won 25-11
The Eagles have the 3rd-best 3rd down offense in the league, converting at rate of 48%, while their defense is 2nd-worst allowing conversions 46.4% of the time. Tampa is 10th-best and 10th-worst, respectively.
The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to start 10-1 and not get to 12 wins on the season
Per John Ewing, the Bucs were joint-2nd-best in the league at 11-6 ATS this season
Per Joe Osborne, the Eagles’ road Under record plus the Bucs’ home Under record is 13-4
Per Evan Abrams, the NFC South went a combined 16-28 ATS vs. teams outside the division this season; the 2nd-worst mark for any division in 20 years.
My breakdown of the game - Talk about two teams who are both going in the wrong direction. I give Baker all the credit in the world for how much he has bounced back this season, but please be careful thinking he is going to be playing at a high level in the playoffs. He also looked incredibly beat up at the end of the Panthers game; a game they should have lost, by the way. On the other side, the Eagles have been atrocious for the back half of the year and things only are getting worse, especially with injuries (Hurts and AJ Brown). Now, let’s not pretend like they didn’t try vs the Giants last week. Yes, they eventually took everyone out, but that was after they were getting dominated, and while the Dallas/Washington game was in doubt5. I think this game could play out exactly as the Cardinals game did where the Eagles struggle to stop the power running game, but this time, they will have to figure out how to stop Mike Evans. I know it sounds crazy, but I like the over in this game as I think both of these teams should be able to move the ball a bit.
Props I like
Rachaad White over 63.5 rushing yards (-130)
Mike Evans ATD (-112)
My bets:
I may add something, but it likely won’t be much, and will send an update email like I always do.
Spreads / Totals
1u Texans +2 (-105)
0.5u KC-Mia over (-110)
1u Dallas -7 (-110)
0.5u GB TT under 20.5 (-105)
1u Det -2.5 (-135); yes I bought the half point
0.5u TB-Phi over 43 (-110)
Teasers
0.5u 6.5pt teaser Dal-GB under 57.5 / Det-LAR under 58 / Cle-Hou under 50.5 (+135)
0.5u 6pt teaser Miami +10.5 / TB +9 (-110)
0.5u 7pt teaser Houston +9 / Buffalo -2.5 / TB +10 (+124)
Parlays
1u Dallas -330 / Lions -160 (+112)
Props (0.25u each)
Devin Singletary over 13.3 receiving yards (-117)
Chris Jones over 0.25 sacks (-120)
Tony Pollard over 14.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Aidan Hutchinson over 0.25 sacks (-120)u
Good luck with all your action!
Week 18 recap
Well, another down week. It seems like we can’t get the ball to bounce our way to really cash a big week. We ride into the playoffs fairly deep in the hole, but if we are sticking to good bankroll management (as we have) we still have plenty of dry powder to attack.
Futures graded this week - we are now 8-23 with -0.9:
Russ Wilson under 3700.5 passing yards - win
Desmond Ridder over 14.5 TD passes (Loss) and over 2650.5 passing yards (win)
Garret Wilson over 7.5 TDs - Loss
Christian Watson over 5.5 TD’s - Loss
Aaron Jones over 825.5 rushing yards - Loss
Broncos under 8.5 wins - Win
Eagles under 11.5 wins - Win
CJ Stroud most INTs - Loss
Cowboys best record - loss
Falcons to make the playoffs/ win NFC South / win NFC - Loss x3
We still have a bunch of futures live such as the Bills, Browns, and Steelers winning AFC, the Cowboys and Packers winning the NFC, and the Bills and Cowboys winning the SB.
I screen grabbed these from BetOnline on Sunday at 8:44pm and 11:36pm ET
Chargers and Panthers were also 12-5
It is widely rumored in Dallas circles that McCarthy basically pinned the Dallas loss last year in GB on Kellen Moore and it was pretty much the end of Moore’s tenure in Dallas.
That game was 10-7 Washington mid 2nd quarter when the Eagles started benching guys