Well, we are almost there!!!! Today is cutdown day down to 53 in the NFL which means the NFL Season is JUST around the corner.
In case you missed it, I published my QB Tiers / Rankings a few weeks ago. I also published a newsletter detailing my plans for content for this year so make sure you check that out as well to make sure you know what to expect this NFL season!
Also, make sure you check out my Omega European Masters picks to see if we can nail an outright winner for the 3rd week in a row!
NFL Futures - My Methodology
Before we get into picks let’s chat about futures betting. One thing you must keep in mind with futures betting is capital allocation. Yes, I know that sounds like fancy financier speak, but it is a relatively simple concept.
If you adhere to the 1% per unit bankroll methodology that means you have 100 units to play with for the year. If you allocate 50 units to futures bets that means half of your bankroll will be unavailable to you for the next 6-7 months. The reason you want to be careful with that is that it can cause you problems if you have a cold streak and you do not have any cash left over to dig your way out of the hole.
When I do my personal futures wagering I try to keep the amount risked preferably under 20u. This may be too much for some so if that feels like too much for you just simply half all the risk I take and then you will be around 10u.
Let’s talk betting amounts. For the purposes of my model, please note that it will still be based on $100/unit1. That said, please be assured I will never bet LESS than what I put in my picks columns and, most importantly, please please please please only bet what YOU can afford.
There is no shame in having a bankroll of $1,000 and betting $10/unit. We all start somewhere and the best way to build your bankroll is slow and steady.
My NFL Division Previews
While this section shows what I am thinking, these are NOT my bets nor are they what my model says so there might be value on a different team when we get to betting!
AFC North - This was the hardest division to call for me. I am always partial to the Ravens but I am really fearful of their defense. I think Cinci is fantastic, but the OL really still concerns me. Cleveland Browns might be one of the most talented teams in the NFL, but is Deshaun Cosby going to regain his form? I have learned my less betting against Mike Tomlin and Kenny Pickett actually looks pretty good. In the end, I think the best QB wins so give me the Bengals, but given the odds I am going to take the swag at a different team.
AFC South - This division is a dumpster fire. Anthony Richardson might be good at some point, but he is still very raw. Houston is focused on their rebuild and everyone seems to have penciled Jacksonville directly into the title line, but let me tell you why I am going with the Titans. They are by far the best-coached team in this division and I think folks are underrating the fact their schedule is incredibly easy.
AFC East - While I have never been a Tua fan, he was great last year, but can he stay healthy? I think not, though I expect their defense to be improved. I still do not believe in Mac Jones so I am discounting the benefit of having actual offensive coaches this year. That leaves me with the Bills and the Jets. I wanted to go with the Jets, but their OL is mostly a mess2 and I think Salah is incredibly overrated so give me the Bills though I wonder if we are going to see them take a step back this year.
AFC West - Spoiler alert for my bets below, but I think the Raiders are going to stink and I think Russell Wilson is long past his expiry date. While I love and have loved Justin Herbert since his Oregon days, I think there is absolutely a world where Kellen Moore is the HC of this team midway through the season. That leaves the defending Super Bowl Champs KC Chiefs, but at some point, cheaping out at WR is going to bite them.
NFC North - I know this will be surprising to folks and I got pushback last year when I put the Vikings in this spot, but I am going with the Packers. They have a young offense (so beware of a slow start) and obviously, Love is a question at QB, but I believe they will be the ones standing as the division winner when we get to January because I expect them to improve as the season goes along paired with a very good D and an improved special teams. After the Packers, I think the Lions have a very bright mind at OC and team toughness but Aaron Glenn’s defense scares me as does that everyone is already handing them the Lombardi Trophy. The Vikings ended up being the frauds that their advanced stats suggested they were and I do not see much difference this year, though I do like Addison in fantasy. I liked Fields coming out in the draft, but his inability to throw is putting him in danger, as is their awful OL.
NFC South - In my opinion, this is the worst division in the league and it is not particularly close. There is no team I really believe in but follow with me here. The Bucs are going to be awful. While the Saints have a good defense, I am not sure I am ready to buy them as favorites when their QB room is Derek Carr, Jameis, Jake Haener, and Taysom Hill. That leaves us with the Falcons and Panthers. I really wanted to be higher on the Panthers, but I do not like what I have seen from their OL at all, I think Frank Reich is overrated, and I think their defense has taken a step backward with the loss of Steve Wilks. For the Falcons, Ridder was my top QB in his draft, and I think Art Smith is a fantastic coach so I would not be surprised at all if they go over their win total and win this division.
NFC East - Washington decided to go with Sam Howell as their QB, but sadly they still have Ron Rivera as their coach. They have a talented team, but I expect this coaching staff to be a problem. The Giants FAR over-performed last year and I remain a Daniel Jones skeptic. I really went back and forth between the Cowboys and the Eagles and this is when I remind myself that no team has repeated as NFC Champs since 2004. How about dem Cowboys?!?
NFC West - The Cards likely will have one of the worst records in the NFL and San Fran is bringing back Purdy who we all just now accept as the second coming of Tom Brady and I am not buying it. The Rams had a disaster of a season last year and I actually think they are going to surprise folks (and I could look very dumb for saying that). While I would like to see Geno Smith do that again, he does have a great WR group, so I think the Seahawks takes the division.
My model’s playoff predictions
AFC Playoff Seeds:
Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals
Tennesee Titans
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins
NFC Playoff Seeds:
Dallas Cowboys
San Fransisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints
AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills over Cincinnati Bengals
NFC Championship Game: Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl: Dallas Cowboys over Buffalo Bills
The Gamblers Paradise Discord was MADE for NFL season where we can sit around chatting about bets we like, props we like, and watch the games together! Make sure you come join us!
NFL Futures Bets
This newsletter is getting VERY long so without further ado, here are the wagers I am making (the amounts shown are the risk amounts and I am risking 19u):3
Individual futures4:
0.5u Russell Wilson under 3700.5 passing yards -120
0.25u Desmond Ridder over 14.5 passing TDs -115
0.25u Desmond Ridder over 2650.5 passing yards -105
0.5u Garrett Wilson over 7.5 receiving TDs -115
0.5u Christian Watson over 5.5 receiving TDs -110
0.5u Brandin Cooks over 775.5 receiving yards -105
0.5u Aaron Jones over rushing yards 825.5 -120
Team futures (0.5u each):
Denver Broncos under 8.5 -125
Detroit Lions under 9.5 +100
Green Bay Packers over 7.5 -135
Las Vegas Raiders under 6.5 -150
Los Angeles Rams over 6.5 +105
New England Patriots over 7 +100
Philadelphia Eagles under 11.5 -135
Awards (0.25u each)5:
DPOY Micah Parsons +550
DPOY Myles Garrett +800
OPOY Nick Chubb +1400
MVP Jalen Hurts +1100
MVP Dak Prescott +2500
CJ Stroud most INTs +2000
Cleveland Browns most improved regular season team +12006
Mike Tomlin Coach of the Year +2000
Mike McCarthy Coach of the Year +3500
Dallas Cowboys best record +1400
Division futures (0.5u each):
AFC North → Cleveland Browns +340 - As I said above, I do not personally think they win this division but my numbers show some significant value here.
AFC South → Tennessee Titans +325 - I think they are going to win this division over an over-hyped Jags team.
NFC North → Green Bay Packers +340 - Everyone thought I was nuts when I picked the Vikings last year and I am telling you that I think Green Bay is going to shock folks.
NFC South → Atlanta Falcons +175 - This division is a shit show and I am betting on my fav coach and my analysis of Ridder.
Playoff futures:
To make/miss the playoffs7
1u Denver Broncos to miss the playoffs -200
0.5u Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs -115
0.5u Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs -115
0.5u Detroit Lions to miss the playoffs +140
AFC winner
1u Buffalo Bills +550
1u Cincinnati Bengals +550
0.25u Cleveland Browns +2000
0.25u Pittsburgh Steelers +3500
NFC winner
1u Dallas Cowboys +550
0.25u Green Bay Packers +2300
0.25u Atlanta Falcons +2800
Super Bowl8
0.5u Buffalo Bills +950
0.5u Cincinnati Bengals +1100
0.5u Dallas Cowboys +1600
Let’s have an awesome season!!!
Best of luck in all your action this year!
If you want to know my thoughts about bankroll management please check that section of this link. DO NOT BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD!
I think EVT is fantastic
If you have questions about my thought process feel free to message me!
On July 24, I released the following on Gamblers Paradise discord - First coach fired:
Ron Rivera +700 (now +650)
Josh McDaniels +1000 (now +600)
Matt Eberflus +1400 (still +1400)
Brandon Staley +1600 (still +1600)
I‘m betting Russell Wilson first QB benched +3300 but the limits are too low to be an official pick
Note that Dead-heat rules apply to this so keep that in mind should it win it could have the odds split up
I also Like Green Bay to make (+160), SF to miss (+300), and Titans to make it (+235), but I am taking other types of shots that would be duplicative
I am also personally taking round-robin shots at my final 4 as exact SB matchups:
Eagles vs Bills +2500
Eagles vs Bengals +2500
Cowboys vs Bills +3900
Cowboys vs Bengals +3900