Okay, the first tournament of the PGA Tour’s 2024 calendar starts this week with The Sentry in Hawaii so let’s get reckless, break out our crystal balls, and play out what will happen this year.
Before we get into my bold predictions:
Make sure you read my “How to bet golf” newsletter that I published just before year-end.
A couple of weeks ago I published my 2022-2023 Golf campaign performance report that goes deep into the stats (both good and bad) on how I did betting golf last year (technically 15 months).
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What will happen in 2024
Every year before the NFL and NBA seasons I publish a newsletter (or a series of newsletters) that lays out what I think will happen that season and then we make some bets along those lines. Golf is a little different betting-wise, but let’s get into what I think will happen this year with my BOLD PREDICTIONS!!!
Why would I do this to myself? Well, I am a sick weirdo who loves to try to come up with how I think the year will play out and so I wanted to put down on paper (or a computer / iPhone / iPad screen) of what I think will happen. Feel free to bust my balls when I am wrong as hell, but hey, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
The format for the below is that I have 10 burning questions along with my thoughts / answer / bold predictions.
Let’s get to it!
Who will be the breakout golfer of the year? Let’s start with one of my favorite topics. I would love to say Tom Kim as I think he is primed for a monster year, but that is not really fair as he is already well-known and broke out a couple of years ago. The easy answer is Ludvig Aberg, but for him to live up to expectations he is going to have to be able to skip across an Augusta pond like a ball at the Par 3 contest so I’ll pass on him as I am going with a different Scandinvian; Nicolai Hojgaard. Those who follow me should not be surprised as I LOVE Nicolai. I think his game will translate well to the PGA Tour as he can do it all. He is great off the tee, approach shots, putting. You name it. He wasn’t spectacular at the Ryder Cup, but he gave me EVERYTHING I could have asked to see when he played big boy golf to win the DPWT Championship final round, especially after a shaky round 3, (and cash our ticket) last year. I could be a year early on him, but I expect that he will be doing big things stateside. My only sadness is that his twin brother missed out on his PGA Tour card by one spot, and one stroke by my guy Pavon, as I would have loved to see Nicolai and Rasmus together.
Honorable mentions: Speaking of twins, the Coody twins will both be on Tour this year and it will be quite interesting to see how they do. They both come with good games and a lot of hype. Another sibling from a golfing family Min Woo Lee (his sister is one of the best female golfers on the planet) has all the talent to be contending week in and week out, but there is just something in his game that I do not trust. Honestly, the Korn Ferry crop is not that great this year.
Who will bounce back from last year? This is a fun one as there were a bunch of guys who played well below their standards last year and I expect to see them rebound:
Tony Finau - Given all of the very loud rumors the last couple of months and his eventual announcement, I think it is safe to say he was in negotiations with LIV most of last year and I think having that past him, we see him rebound big time
Jordan Speith - The Speith roller coaster is always a fun ride and I think he will be on the upswing this year. I expect him to win a signature event and be in contention in at least one major. I came close to putting Collin in this spot as I loved what I saw at the Zozo, but that disqualified him for me.
Sungjae Im - I went back and forth between Sungjae, Hideki, and Sam Burns. I am still worried that Hideki might be hurt and I really just hate Sam Burns’ game so I am going with one of my favorite Koreans. Sungjae’s ball-striking was not nearly as good as it normally is so I would expect some regression back to the mean (which is good in this case) to see him up in contention more often.
Who will not be able to replicate what they did last year?
Brian Harman / Wyndham Clark - these two are easy as no one expected either of them to win a major but I think we see dropoffs for different reasons. For Harman, he relies on his short game / putting and I am not sure we will see either of those at such a high level again this year and what I saw at the RSM makes me think that will be the case, especially on his home course. Clark not only won the US Open but he also won the Wells Fargo at Quail. I just do not think he is going to be able to replicate that at all. These guys ended up 6th and 8th on the money list last year. I think they will be lucky to be top 20.
Lucas Glover - He found some magic for 2 straight weeks where it seemed he was able to make every single putt with his long putter and sweat-soaked pants. I would be shocked if he won a tournament this year, especially given that he made the top 50 in the FedEx Cup so he will not be playing many of the lower-level tournaments.
Keegan Bradley - This one brings me zero joy as he seems like a great guy and I wish he had gotten a chance to play on the Ryder Cup and would love for him to get on the President’s Cup team, but I do not think he will be able to continue the success he had last year which saw him end up in the top 10 of the money list.
Has Scottie fixed his putting? Depends on what you mean by fix it. Yes, I expect it to be better than last year when he was like 160th in putting on the Tour. Do I think he will be top 10? No chance. Will he be in the top 100? Yes. Now, does that mean he is going to win 6 tournaments, including some majors? I do not think so as I do not think his ball striking last year, which was the best ever by a golfer not named Tiger Woods, will continue at that level. I think Scottie wins 2 or 3 times and continues to be in contention a ton, but I would stop short of expecting him to win a half dozen times in a single year.
Who will win the 2024 Olympics golf? I know this will shock some folks, but this is honestly the event I am most excited about this year. I know that sounds strange, but I LOVE the Olympics and Le Golf National is a very real and challenging golf course. Watching the Cazoo French Open last year had me reallly excited, though Jordan Smith blowing a 6-shot lead and our 28-1 ticket in the final round was less than fun. We do not know exactly who will be there as the qualifications are a bit odd and we won’t know the form of folks as we go into this tournament. Viktor Hovland is an easy choice given his game and being on European soil. I like to look at Euro guys who have a good history at the course from DPWT events like Adrian Meronk, Yannik Paul, and Rasmus Hojgaard (as a longshot play if he qualifies). Don’t discount reigning French Open champion Ryo Hisatsune, if he qualifies, as another long shot as he was nails coming down the stretch of that tournament. Ultimately, it came down to two guys for me. While I really like the way Homa’s game fits this course, my winner as we sit here in early January is Tom Kim.
Will we have a LIV-PGA Tour agreement, what will it look like, and what will it mean? The short answer is yes. I think we will have an agreement and that it will be here before the Masters. My guess is that we see it probably in early March, but that is a pure guess. Now, what does that agreement look like? I believe whatever agreement is struck will NOT include LIV golfers playing on the PGA Tour prior to East Lake. I can’t see a world where LIV golfers are playing again on Tour before the TOUR Championship, and likely not before 2025. I think it will almost certainly include a pathway back and I mainly believe that is part of the reason Rahm left, as he thinks he will be back playing with his friends in 12-15 months as well as in the next Ryder Cup. My guess is there will be a fine to return to the Tour, big cash payouts for some of those who stayed, and some amount of cross-pollination when it comes to team events going forward.
While we are on the topic of LIV, will a LIV guy win a major? I do not think so. Now, Brooks is always a threat at every major and he absolutely will be contending at the first 3 majors this year. I could absolutely see Cam, Rahm, Bryson, Mito, and Niemann contending as well and I would also not be shocked if Gooch is in the mix at Troon but I really don’t think we see any of them win as I think the slate of the 2 of the 3 rotating ones sets up well for the PGA Tour guys. The one outlier is the US Open at Pinehurst #2 where a number of LIV guys have had success in the past and the US Open can lend itself to surprising winners.
Does Rory win a major? I really want to say yes, but he has not been able to do it in so long and I think he still looks mentally and physically exhausted. While I would personally love to see him win another major and he has won at Valhalla in the past, I unfortunately do not think he will be able to get it done this year.
Will this be the year Cantlay, Xander, Rickie, or Homa wins a major? YES!! I really do think one of them can and will win a major this year and I would actually not be shocked if two of them do and the two might surprise you:
While the LIV rumors continue to swirl, we have actually seen Cantlay take a more vocal and active role in the PGA Tour’s Board and he came out with a pretty strong statement that he is staying. That all said, that takes a mental and physical toll and I still do not think his game holds up in the biggest moments, though the Ryder Cup was a step in the right direction, so that is no.
As normal, you can’t talk about Cantlay without talking about Xander. I am honestly not a fan of Xander and he is just frankly not good enough off the tee which leads to not being close enough to pins for him to win a major, but he will likely continue to be in contention, so that is no. I also think we continue to hear that he might be going to LIV which can take a toll.
I really thought Rickie was going to get it done at LACC last year, but sadly he melted away (as did others) as Clark was able to take home the win. I am hopeful that his game is going to continue to be as strong as it was last year and that he is going to be in contention at both the PGA and US Open, which are both courses in which he has heavily contended in the past. I think he could definitely get it done at the US Open, but I am going to say no.
You said you came for bold predictions? How about this one → Max Homa is going to be our 2024 Masters Champion. Yes, I said it! I expect Max to take a leap this year and I think we are going to see him win at least once on the West Coast swing (hello Riv), and I think you will see him contend a bunch, including in the Olympics. The thing that has always held Max back is the mental side of the game. I think the comments he has made about his major prep, his performance during the back half of 2023, then the Ryder Cup, and the win on the DPWT has him primed for an amazing year. I can’t wait for it!
Who will win each major? These are my guesses as we sit here in early January. This does not mean there is value to bet right now, nor does this guarantee they will be on my betting card when we get to the actual tournament but I am getting reckless so let’s have some fun
The Masters - Max Homa (see above)
PGA Championship - Viktor Hovland - I would love to take a shot at his futures market, but it is only 12-1 right now and I do not expect that to get any lower in the short run so I am going to hold off. Valhalla is a course that sets up perfectly for his game so honestly I would be shocked if we did not see him in contention.
US Open - The US Open more than any other major tends to give us some surprise winners and Pinehurst #2 is definitely a course that can give us a surprise winner. If I HAD to pick someone right now (yes, I know that is the whole point of this) I am going with Jordan Spieth. Min Woo Lee might be a fun out-of-the-box thought here and someone I could absolutely see us betting on and as you likely know from my futures action, I expect Rickie Fowler to be in the mix.
The Open Championship - I know I expect big things from Tony Finau this year and we have a futures ticket on him that I still feel good about, but I am going with Tyrrell Hatton. I love the idea of how his game will work at Troon and the fact he will likely have a few DPWT events under his belt around that time period. Obviously, his temperament is always a worry at a major.
I hope you have enjoyed this newsletter! It was a ton of fun to write it. I would love to hear your thoughts about my predictions and hear some of your own! You can email me (either hit reply to the email you received in your inbox or email me directly at Titanic.Gambler@gmail.com), message me on Twitter, add comments here, or come join the Gamblers Paradise Discord to chat!