Happy New Year!!!
Welcome to 2024 and the new golf season!!
For those who missed it, a couple of weeks ago I published my 2022-2023 Golf campaign performance report that goes deep into the stats (both good and bad) on how I did betting golf last year (technically 15 months). As I stated in that newsletter, similar to the PGA Tour, I am moving to a calendar-based performance cycle so while I will always keep my all-time stats updated we are starting FRESH with this tournament!
Before we get into betting this year:
Before betting this year, make sure you are reading my “How to bet golf” newsletter that I published just before year-end.
I am also running a completely free-to-enter-one-and-done contest, so come check that out and try to win real cash prizes!
As you will see, I am starting with a bit of a new format. Let’s see how it goes!
The Sentry
The course:
The PGA Tour starts back up with its West Coast swing1. As per usual, it all starts in Hawaii on the Plantation Course at Kapalua. This course plays to a par 73 (yes, this is unusual) across a stunning ~7,600 yards!
While this seems like a longer course, much of it is played downhill so you can find guys who have success but are not the longest hitters. The greens are quite large, which also helps those who are not the longest.
This event had been the opening tournament of the PGA tour calendar for 27 years before the PGA tour changed to the wrap-around calendar and now it is back to its rightful place! For those with a keen you will notice this tournament is no longer the “tournament of champions”, but this is now the first signature event of the year!! The other odd thing is that we do not know the form of the golfers as most have not played competitively in months.
Given that this is a signature event, there is no cut this week and we have a limited field with only 59 guys fighting for the big checks and increased FedEx Cup points. Here is a list of the men who have qualified for the event.
Prior results:
2023 - tournament favorite Jon Rahm (7-1) when he shot -27 to come back from 7 back to beat Collin Morikawa2 (20-1).
2022 - Cam Smith (25-1) won with a course record of -34. Jon Rahm (9-1) came in second by 1 stroke.
2021 - Harris English (30-1) topped Joaquin Niemann (40-1) in a playoff after both shot -25
2020 - 2nd favorite JT (5-1) won his 2nd ToC beating Patrick Reed (14-1) and defending champion Xander Schauffele (8-1) in a playoff (all shot -14).
Last year we had a pretty unsuccessful Sentry as we lost 1.7u for a -27.2% ROI.
The bets:
While this is a more expanded field in the past, I am still going to keep it pretty light this week until we see what kind of form these guys are in, and because this event is a bit of a “hit and giggle” so without further ado, let’s get the season started with 5.4u of risk:
Outright3:
0.815 Patrick Cantlay 18-1
0.815u Xander Schauffele 18-1
0.37u Tyrrell Hatton 40-1
0.15u Benny An 100-1
T10 (0.25u each):
Xander Schaufele +140
Tom Kim +210
Tyrrell Hatton +225
T20
0.5u Tom Kim -135
0.5u Tyrrell Hatton -130
0.25u Benny An +185
0.25u Tom Hoge +210
Matchups
0.635u Tony Finau over Rickie Fowler -127
0.335u Russell Henley over Hideki Matsuyama -134
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Daily Fantasy
Alright, this will be back next week with a full field
Good luck with all your action!
The PGA tour starts its main calendar with a West Coast swing (2 in Hawaii, 4 in Cali, 1 in Arizona), then it heads to Mexico for the Mexico Open before it heads to the Florida swing.
Collin had a 6-stroke lead going into the final round
I see some value on Scottie Scheffler, but I can not in good conscience bet someone at 6-1. I also see some slight value on Morikawa at 14-1, but I am going to opt for Cantlay and X as Collin seems to be a pick for a TON of people on twitter and that usually scares me. I might look to use him in a parlay.