Recap - The Masters
An unbelievable tournament with Scottie getting his second green jacket, but alas, we could not find a winner and our o-for-the season continues. That said, what a tournament and what a sweat for our guys!
I said back in January when I did my bold predictions that I expected Max Homa to win the Masters and he gave it a great run. He was a little too conservative for my liking, but then again, we saw what happens if you get a little more aggressive with Collin when he doubled twice on Sunday. Collin gave the Gamblers Paradise Discord a great sweat after I told folks that he was looking great during the practice rounds and he was worth a bet.
We also had FRL and mad scientist Bryson on our card, but after he putted the lights out on Thursday, his short game left him and he was in it, but not really. We also had a sneaky Patrick Reed Top 20 to give us that ticket. Unfortunately, we had a couple of guys finish just outside the Top 20.
I did put in my newsletter that I would be dropping my match-ups on the Gamblers Paradise Discord and I hope you listened as I went 5-1-3 on my matchups to pick up 1.4u of profit!!
NOTE: I will not have a newsletter next week as the Zurich Open is an odd event that I do not handicap.
RBC Heritage
The course:
The PGA Tour leaves Augusta, Georgia, and travels 144 miles southeast to Hilton Head Island1, South Carolina to visit Harbour Town Golf Links. This Pete Dye-designed course plays2 to a par 71 across 7,200 yards and has a cool wall with plaques for each of the past winners (picture I took a couple of summers ago).
One very noteworthy thing is that even though this tournament is being played the week after the Masters it is a signature event so while this tournament historically only has an okay field, this year it has the top players in the world playing in a no-cut event.
Similar to the Valero, it is going to be a little hard to judge how many of these guys fully care given that they did just go through the major grind last week in Augusta.
Now, when you see the above this course is just under 7,200 yards, you might think this course is easy, but you must remember we are talking about Pete Dye and the Carolinas! This course is tree-lined with tight doglegging fairways and water hazards on every hole. The other thing with this course is that the Bermuda greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour which makes this course a ball striker’s paradise over those who bomb from the tee.
This course can play tough if the wind gets going and this week seems to call for wind in the 15-20mph range that will get stronger as the day goes on. Hilton Head can be quite warm, but the weather looks like it should be in the high 70’s for most of the tournament. That all said, Sunday’s weather bears watching as it looks like it will be cooler, and could see a storm late in the day.
Prior results:
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick (30-1) won on the course he used to play as a kid on vacation when he topped Jordan Speith (20-1) in a playoff after both shot -17
2022 - Jordan Spieth (50-1) won for the first time in 12.5 months when he shot -13 and beat Patrick Cantlay (18-1) in a playoff.
2021 - Stweart Cink (100-1) captured his 3rd RBC Heritage title when he shot —19 to top Emiliano Grillo (80-1) and HV3 (125-1) by 4 strokes
2020 - Webb Simpson (20-1) captured his 1st RBC title when he beat Abe Ancer (60-1) by 1 stroke.
In 2023, the first-round leader was Aaron Rai after he shot an 8 under 61, on his way to a T48 -5 finish. After the first round, Matt Fitzpatrick was 3 strokes back and Jordan Speith was 4 strokes back.
The event’s 72-hole record is -22 (262) was shot by Webb Simpson in 2020. Davis Love III has the record for RBC Heritage titles with 5 victories. Speith will attempt to become the 4th man to defend his title in this event after DL3, Payne Stewart, and Boo Weekley.
Last year’s RBC Heritage saw us lose 1.8u (17%).
The bets:
I always like to start with who I think the public is going to be on this week and there is one cheese that stands alone - Tom Kim. When I saw his number this morning at 80-1 I could just feel the Twitter army falling all over themselves to bet on him. I love Tom and he is a phenomenal kid by all reports, but he hasn’t played well in a few months and I think folks are pinning too many hopes on that final round of the Masters. Yes, I know all the connections to Sedgefield, but I do not like how he has played at all.
Similarly, I think folks are going to look at Collin Morikawa (who seems to have found his irons), Tommy Fleetwood (who back-doored his way into a nice finish), and Will Zalatoris (who also seemed to hold on for a decent finish) as other guys that folks will be high on coming off the Masters and will likely take a big bit of the betting. That said, you could sell me on all 3 of them.
I also think Patrick Cantlay could be a very public pick and I took him at 20-1 this morning for the Gamblers Paradise Discord this morning. His history on this course could not be better and we did see some life from him in Augusta. I also took close looks at Max (going to be a letdown after last week), Sahith Theegala (his short game could be key this week), Corey Conners (this course should fit him but not at that number), Jordan Speith (runner-up and winner in his last 2 times on HHI, but his wrist is a mess as is the rest of his game), Fitzpatrick (last year’s winner, but I did not like what I saw from him last week), Akshay (his numbers have value, but hard to bet him after this close to his win), JT Poston (given the reliance on putting, he is an interesting look, but he was BAD last week), and Brendon Todd / Andrew Putnam / Nick Taylor (Guys I really like at 120, 200 and 150 to one, but I opted for Glover instead).
I know I have been going on forever, but one last thing - I have been saying for months that this week was going to be Si Woo Kim or Matthieu Pavon week so let’s get it!!
This week’s card is about 8u of risk, but we should note that we do have an alternative site event this week in the Dominican Republic (link to picks).
Outright:
0.45u Si Woo Kim 40-1
0.33u Russell Henley 55-1
0.3u Shane Lowry 60-1
0.23u Denny McCarthy 70-1
0.18u Matthieu Pavon 100-1
0.15u Lucas Glover 120-1
Top 10 (0.25u on each):
Patrick Cantlay +220
Si Woo Kim +225
Denny McCarthy +400
Matthieu Pavon +550
Top 20:
0.75u Si Woo Kim -105
0.75u Russell Henley +110
0.5u Shane Lowry +135
0.25u Denny McCarthy +150
0.25u Matthieu Pavon +200
0.25u Brendon Todd +210
Matchups
0.69u Akshay Bhatia over Keegan Bradley -138
0.66u Chris Kirk over Cam Davis -132
0.375u Emiliano Grillo over Thomas Detry -150
0.36u Brice Garnett over Erik Barnes -144
0.345u Lucas Glover over Eric Cole -1383
I get asked all the time where you can find the match-ups I use……most books do their own thing for match-ups but there is a large part of the market that uses the same menu so I usually pick from that list. I often get told “I looked everywhere and they aren’t available” - well here are the many books that all use the same set of matchups → Stations Casinos, Bookmaker.eu, BetOnline, Heritage, BetAnySport.eu, SouthPoint, Jazz, Wynn, Hard Rock, Lowvig, BetUS, BetMGM, and Mirage.
Good luck with all your action!
If you have never been, Hilton Head is a really great place for a family vacation! It is a place that I have gone to many times and there are tons of things to do for families with kids of all ages. If you have been there or are planning on going, I am more than happy to suggest places to go and stay, just DM me.
Yes, get ready to keep hearing this over and over again
I would normally do this for double this but I wanted to stay under 8u of risk and we already have a fair bit of risk on Lucas Glover already