Recap - Valero Texas Open
Going to keep this brief as you can see the below is quite long. So close yet so far. It is hard to be closer to a win than a playoff, but it is even worse when one of the best putters on the Tour missed two 6-foot putts in the first 3 holes and you now know you could have won that bad boy by 2.
Ultimately need we end down 3.4u, but if you saw my post where I talked about Each Way and you bet them you would have hit 16-1 and 20-1 on Todd and Denny.
The Masters
The course:
The golf world heads down Magnolia Lane to Augusta National for “a tradition unlike any other…..the Masters”!!! Augusta National Golf Club was designed by Alister Mackenize and Bobby Jones and plays to a par 72 across 7,555 yards1.
For those who are unfamiliar, The Masters is the first of the 4 majors on the golfing calendar and its history stretches back to the late great Bobby Jones, who founded Augusta National (the 2nd best golf course in the United States) in 1932. While there are older courses and tournaments in the US, there is something about the Masters week that feels so special.
There are a bunch of things we need to keep in mind while dialing up our Masters’ bets this week:
You may see 7,555 yards on the card and think that is long, but this course plays closer to 7,900 with all the dog legs and areas where you need to hit the ball which puts a ton of stress on players to hit long approach shots into firm and lightning-fast greens. Hitting green in regulation and abilities around the green are so important here.
Speaking of those famous bentgrass greens. They routinely play to a 14+ on the stimp which makes them some of the fastest on the planet. Most of these quick greens are buffeted by closely mown run-off areas which means that even a good shot can end up with a bogey if you catch a bad bounce on these very countered greens. Rory also dropped a little nugget that there are renovated greens on 2, 4, and 6 so we might see some new pin placements this year!
The fairways are a mix of Bermuda and rye and, if you miss the fairway, there is very little “rough” as the rye grass rough will be cut to exactly 1 and 3/8 inches.
Per Justin Ray, Wyndham Clark will be the first player since Orville Moody in 1970 to make his Masters debut as US Open Champ2. Only Jack Nicklaus won the Masters after winning the Valero the prior week (he did it twice), so you can count me out on Akshay.
The Masters has the smallest field of any of the majors with only 89 players competing this week. As such, the Masters’ cutline is top 50 and ties (rather than the normal top 65 and ties) so this is something you should keep in mind as you watch the leaderboard over the first 2 days.
There is a HUGE correlation between Riveria CC and Augusta National.; last year there were 9 players who finished inside the top 20 at Riviera and inside the top 20 at Augusta. Say what you want about LIV but it was highly intelligent of them to host LIV Miami at Doral as it’s a great precursor to the Masters
Yes, this is one of the best and most beautiful courses that was ever designed, but it is a true test of every man who tees it up. While I could give you a breakdown of this unique course I will defer to these former Masters Champions explaining every hole. This course, unlike any other, favors guys who have experience as the last player to win their first time out was 1979 when Fuzzy Zoeller won3.
This will be Verne Lundquist’s final Masters and I’m so sad to see him go. Given how much I love sports and have watched them my entire life, his voice has made an indelible mark on my life (along with Marv Albert and Pat Summerall). I wish him a very happy retirement.
Given the decision to allow qualifying LIV Tour members to play in the majors, this will be our first time in 2024 seeing how the LIV Tour players stack up against their former colleagues and I can’t wait. Traditionally many of the best PGA Tour players take off the week before the Masters, but many played last week though some missed the cut. We also saw all of the LIV guys playing last week in Miami as LIV schedules most of their events against what they anticipate being a lesser PGA Tour events like last week's Valero Texas Open.
As has been the case all year, weather looks like it’ll play a major factor in the golf this week. As of this writing, Thursday morning looks to have a thunderstorm coming so we might see a stoppage. Once that clears we look to have winds up to 30mph for Thursday afternoon and Friday. The weekend looks quite beautiful, especially Saturday, but Sunday could have a decent breeze to make things fun!
The cut line for the last five years has been +3, +3, +3, Even, and +3.
Prior results:
87th Masters - 3rd favorite Jon Rahm (10-1)overcame doubling his first hole to copy the Scheffler path and used his blazing hot start to the year to win his 2nd major championship when he shot -12 to beat Brooks Koepka (30-1) and Phil Mickelson (500-1) by 4 strokes.
86th Masters - 3rd favorite Scottie Scheffler (16-1) continued his blazing hot start to the 2022 calendar year when he shot -10 and beat Rory McIlroy (20-1) by 3 strokes to capture his first major championship.
85th Masters - Hideki Matsuyama (60-1) captured his first major title when he shot -10 and topped Willy Z (150-1) by 1 stroke
84th Masters - Played in November due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2nd favorite Dustin Johnson (8-1) captured his 2nd major title by shooting -20 to beat Sungjae Im (100-1) and Cam Smith (125-1) by 5 strokes.
Last year, John Rahm, Brooks Koepka, and Viktor Hovland were all tied for the first-round leaders after they each shot 65 (2 strokes better than Cam Young and Jason Day) on their way to a win, T2 and T7 finishes.
While I am famously not one for trends, David Tindall did his normal Masters 10-year trends that folks might be interested in. While Kyle Porter gives us the records for being the youngest winner, 2-time winner, 3-time winner, etc. as well as details on being the oldest winner.
The event’s 72-hole record is -20 (268) was shot by Dustin Johnson in late 20204. Jack Nicklaus holds the record for most Masters' wins with 6, but Tiger is only 1 behind with 5 and we expect that he will do his best to close that gap this week.
Jon Rahm will try to become only the 4th man ever to defend his title at Augusta and if he can do it, I wonder how he will top the amazing menu he put together for the champions' dinner this year5.
My thoughts on the field
Let’s talk about the field - Scottie could win this thing, but there is no way I am betting him or really anyone at 4-1. Rory has never won the Masters and needs it to complete the grand slam, but, as is well documented, you will know after Thursday if he will be in contention. If he shoots under 70, then I might bet him live, but other than that it’s a no for me. Cantlay is a no because of his Policy Board obligations, same for Speith, though he will be around the top as he always is here. Can Cam Young finally find a win and do it in a major? His game is rounding into form. JT’s game has looked both very good and very bad last couple of months (7 events, 2 MCs, 4 top 25s) and he just fired his caddy this week. Does he get a new caddy bounce or was that a mistake?
Xander is another who plays well here, but I can’t trust what I am seeing out of him in a big spot and he is VERY public. Hideki is playing hurt, but he seemingly doesn’t care. He is just too short for me at this point and I expect him to be rather public. I know we have a Willy Z ticket already, but I am scared by what we have seen recently and how many people are betting him. Speaking of public guys, I expect Sahith to be heavily picked though his history here shouldn’t be taken for granted. Morikawa and Hovland, I really like their games for ANGC but I am scared by what we have been seeing from both.
Sam Burns should be a course fit, but I can’t figure out how he is one of the best putters on Tour who keeps missing short putts and these greens aren’t Bermuda. Shane Lowry is a guy I really like and think he is absolutely undervalued, but he scares me with a lead late and can he putt it well enough? Speaking of wondering if someone can putt it well enough, let me introduce you to Tony Finau. I think Aberg will likely win a Masters at some point, but winning your first time there is VERY hard. I am a big believer in needing to have Masters experiences so count me as out on Wyndham Clark (dislike him so much), Ryo Hisatsune (though he could compete here), Nic Hojgaard (ditto), and Matthieu Pavon (ditto x2).
Let’s talk LIV - Brooks is a beast, but can someone explain these odds to me? Something seems off6 and it could be this putter change. Cam Smith was sick and pulled out of Doral. He has a good Masters record, but what do we make of that WD? I liked him before that, but now I am worried. Do you think Rahm can go back to back? Joaquin should be right there and credit to my guy David Bieleski (link to his Twitter) who was smarter than me and jumped on him as soon as it was announced he was getting an invite at like 50-1 E/W, but at his current number, I can’t bet it. I do not like what I have seen from DJ and Bryson, but I would not be shocked at all if either contend and I’m gonna bet one of them as he impressed me last year. Patrick Reed is a giant prick, but he is a former Masters winner and played well at Doral. Can he contend again? Phil contended last year but I can’t believe he does it again.
I only briefly touched on some guys of interest to me. If you are interested in more detail, Ryan Noonan and Ben Coley each did really great player-by-player previews of the tournament.
My Bets:
I think we are going to see the absolute cream rise to the top, especially those guys who are ball strikers so do not be shocked that many of these guys are short to mid odds7.
NOTE: This is a LOT of risk for outrights and I am betting this prepared for this to be a total loss so make sure you bet within your means. If you are NOT comfortable with extra risk, please DO NOT bet as much as I am.
Okay, I have gone on long enough, let’s get to this week’s card (about 7.1u of risk - note that I personally think about the futures tickets as separate action as they are sunk costs so I view the below really as 6.1u of risk and I bet things like E/W on these as well):
Outright:
0.5u Max Homa 35-1 (From Jan 2nd)
0.5u Will Zalatoris 45-1 (From July 3rd and Oct 2nd)
0.45u Bryson DeChambeau 40-1
0.4u Matt Fitzpatrick 45-1
0.33u Justin Thomas 55-1
0.28u Patrick Reed 70-1 (this was sent on Discord yesterday)
0.15u Denny McCarthy 125-1
Top 10 (0.25u each):
Bryson +250
Matt Fitzpatrick +250
Adam Scott +500
Patrick Reed +550
Top 20:
0.75u Matt Fitzpatrick +100
0.75u Bryson +110
0.5u Justin Thomas +150
0.25u Max Homa +200
0.25u Corey Conners +200
0.25u Patrick Reed +225
0.25u Denny McCarthy +225
Top 40
0.5u Gary Woodland +105
0.5u Austin Eckroat +105
Matchups / Props / FRL
These have been posted on my free discord as well as what I’m hearing from my sources!
Good luck with all your action!
They added a new tee box on the 2nd hole which lengthened the course by 10 yards. since last year
Please also look at the question from Brian Kirschner and J Ray’s response. It is gold.
That said, we have seen players like Cam Smith, Willy Z, Jason Day, and Jordan Speith all go very close their first time at the Masters.
The record for an April tournament is -18 (270) shot by Tiger Woods in 1997 and Jordan Spieth in 2015
For those who are unfamiliar with this tradition which started in 1952, prior to the Masters being played, all living former champions are invited to a dinner that is hosted by the current reigning champion (pic from the 2022 dinner). That Champion gets to set the menu for dinner and traditionally that individual picks food that is local to the area they grew up, Scottie (who is from Texas) clearly did last year as did Hideki at his dinner two years ago.
I normally point out to guys I plan on betting via parlay. Well, I have been nibbling at him for parlays for a while so while he will not be on my card - I have a lot of exposure to the 5-time major champ and will be rooting for him.
Per Ron Klos, over the last 14 playings, winners of the Masters have held average pre-tournament odds of 34.5/1, with the longest being Schwartzel at 90-1