Welcome to the start of the NFL Season!!!! It is finalllllllllllly here (well it’s tomorrow night)!
Before the season starts, make sure you check out my season long player props, season preview and QB Rankings, and season long futures columns!
Recap
I wanted to start with a quick recap as to where things stand from prior seasons and this year’s draft. For those who are relatively new, this is the reporting template you will generally1 see each week going forward good, bad, ugly, or in between.
Not much commentary to add other than to say that we had a profitable draft and we have a bunch of futures tickets out there so let’s hop right to the main event!
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Thursday Night Football
Bills @ Rams (Thursday 8:20pm) -
Stats that might matter :
Super Bowl winners are 19-3 straight up and 14-6-2 against the spread in season openers
Bills are 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games
Bills are 13-6 against the spread in their Week 1 games since 2002
Rams are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their last 3 games as underdogs
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on LA Rams +2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - What a way to start the season?!? Thursday night games can always be funky, but these opening games have tended to be pretty good. This line was -1 and then all of a sudden jumped to -2.5 because of the news of Stafford’s elbow. The question is do you think his arm is okay and with the hews it is, the next question is why has this not moved back? I think it is because everyone and their moms are betting Buffalo. This feels like an over and the line has started to drift down so I do not think I am going to touch it straight, but that is peaking my interest.
Verdict -
I am going to go with my model’s play of Rams +2.5 though I will likely personally buy the hook.
I am going with 0.6u on a 6 pt teaser (-120) of Rams +8.5 and Over 46.
I hope you will come hang out with us on the discord!!!
I say generally as I will usually make tweaks as the season goes along (like next week I will hide the rows that do not have any bets, I will add a table to show weekly performance, etc.)